Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 190920
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
420 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold
front that will move through the area Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning. Surface based CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg, 6 km
wind shear of 40-60 knots and 1 km wind shear of 20-30 knots will
all be supportive of the potential of severe thunderstorms. High
moisture content in the form of precipitable water values of 1.4
to 1.6 inches (greater than 90th percentile for this time of year)
and surface dewpoints in the mid 60s (greater than 95th
percentile for this time of year) and the expected widespread
convection will also be supportive of locally heavy rainfall,
although this will be a relatively short duration event with the
expected progressive movement of the storms with the front. But
with these parameters in place, will include both severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the grids.

There is some potential for showers and storms to move into the
southwest portion of the area as early as Friday morning, although
the signal does not look as strong as it did yesterday. Will
maintain at least low POPs Friday through Saturday morning with
moisture return and the potential for a weak shortwave or two
moving across the area in the southwest flow aloft. Then
thunderstorms will become much more widespread along the front on
Saturday afternoon across northern Oklahoma with storms advancing
southeast with the front through Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  58  76  66 /   0   0  20  20
Hobart OK         78  61  76  65 /   0  10  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  81  61  79  67 /   0  10  30  20
Gage OK           78  60  73  62 /   0   0  20  20
Ponca City OK     80  56  76  66 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         80  57  79  66 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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