Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 130105
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTHERLY
AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AND GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.

MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING OF INITIAL SFC BOUNDARY FOR
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER
NAM/ECMWF FOR INITIAL FRONTAL TIMING SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR SUNDAY AFTN
AND SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH TOWARD
I-40/I-44 BY MONDAY MORNING. BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH UNTIL WE GET TO THE NORTH OF MUCH STRONGER FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAINING IN
THE 70S. THIS WILL BE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN... BUT
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN MCS LIKELY DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OK AND N TX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONT TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA ON WED. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A VERY COOL DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S. TEMPS IN THE 70S A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THURSDAY AS WELL. BEFORE WARMING TREND COMMENCES
FRIDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK... WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... CLOSER TO
SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  99  73  94 /   0   0  20  30
HOBART OK         71 101  74  97 /   0   0  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73 102  77 100 /   0   0   0  20
GAGE OK           69  95  69  91 /   0  20  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     73  96  71  90 /   0  20  40  30
DURANT OK         74 100  76  98 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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