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000
FXUS63 KPAH 151728
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1228 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18z TAF issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Cold front now seen from just northwest of PIA and STL to near
SGF, taking aim on PAH FA. Latest short res modeling keeps us dry
thru 09Z, so a tad slower approach than 24 hours ago suggested.
Cold front will enter northwest ptns FA by 12Z, accelerating
across the Ohio river by 15Z, and departing east of the FA by 18Z.
This rapid 6 hour passage will keep QPF by and large less than
1/4" on average amounts, despite a high overall Pop. Most of the
rain appears to be along/lagging behind the boundary by 1-3 hours,
so Pops draw to an end, west to east, this afternoon.

Already, dew points in the upper 30s/40s were sneaking into
northwest MO. These 40s td`s will infiltrate the entirety of our
FA by this evening on gusty nwlys. This will result in rh values
into the 30s in the SEMO Ozarks this pm, and area-wide tmrw pm,
with maybe some upper 20s RH in the SEMO Ozarks tmrw pm.

After record warmth Saturday, we moderate from the mid 60s to mid
70s today for highs, with 60s most common place Monday and
Tuesday, and daily lows in the 40s. This will actually make it
feel more like it is supposed to feel for mid October, with climo
high/low norms in the low 70s/upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Models show surface high pressure settling east of the PAH forecast
area late in the work week, with an upper level ridge building over
the eastern U.S.  This will give us dry conditions through the
extended.  Relative humidity forecast time heights indicate very dry
air will be in place at the low and mid levels, so we should mainly
just see some high clouds from time to time.  South winds around the
high will result in a gradual warm up.  Temperatures will start out
Wednesday and Wednesday night in the lower 70s and upper 40s, with
readings by Friday night and Saturday in the lower 50s and upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Have removed shra at all TAF sites except KOWB til 19Z. Otherwise
current MVFR cigs and vsbys will improve to VFR at all sites by
20z. Gusty northerly winds AOA 20 knots will gradually subside
toward sunset with values AOB 5 knots overnight with very little
increase Monday morning as High pressure builds into the region.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shanklin