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000
FXUS63 KPAH 221727
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

All eyes on Tropical Storm Cindy as it nears landfall on the Tx/La
border. IR Satellite depicts cold topped outer spiral bands up to
400 miles east of the center of the Low. The models have been
pretty consistent and overall, doing a good job on the track of
the system. Models track the Low northward, into srn Ar by 12Z
Friday, and then the wave opens up as it ejects northeastward,
across western Tn, through the day Friday. This tracks the
bullseye of max tropical sourced qpf across our
southern/southeastern counties Friday pm and early evening.

The tropical fetch of high PW air is incoming today, as we see
PW`s rise from low inch values to near 2" values, well out ahead
of/to the north and east of the Low/track. This means we could
yield some preceding rainfall upwards to an inch or so, maybe a
little higher even, before seeing the max swath producing a storm
total 2-3.5" or perhaps 2-4" band across southern Ky. 2" line
still roughly bisects the FA along/thereabouts the Ohio river.

Participating in the 07Z WPC Conf call, and per 12chat collab.,
there is no collab stomach for early FFA issuance, given the
expectation for the later (Friday pm/evening) QPF bullseye, and
the uncertainty of the totaling and particularly, areal bullseye
of preceding setup/rainfall. We think regardless, we`ll be able to
take 1-2" totals that may occur in the first half (Thursday-
Thursday night), and then have a better handle on where to focus
headlines for the primary QPF bullseye Friday pm/evening. This was
definitely the overall consensus on both the call and the 12 chat.

Mostly all of this thinking was already incorporated into the
previous/inherited grids/package. We did make some fine tuning
adjustments on QPF totals, and overall Pops. One such fine tune
was continuing the quicker trending of the cold front and its
passage, resulting in a Friday evening end to pcpn, vs Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Medium confidence in the extended.

Fairly high confidence that most areas will remain dry through
the extended. The flow aloft starts off nearly zonal and then
becomes more northwesterly. As the flow becomes northwest could
not rule out a spoke of energy rotating through the region. For
now the models are not really picking up on any strong or
significant signals of energy. As a matter of fact the forecast
builder has come in with slightly lower pops than previous runs
for the extended. One thing the models are in agreement with good
run to run continuity as a cooler drier air mass with temperatures
starting out well below normal and slowly warming to normal
toward the end of next week. Also dew points should fall around 20
degrees cooler by late weekend. As typical a warming trend will
take place through the week but still modest temperatures for this
time of year. Moisture will return very slowly as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Numerous showers developed across the region this morning. Cigs and
vsbys in the heavier showers are ifr. There will continue to be
scattered ifr conditions this afternoon in showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. It appears there will be a lull in precip for much of
tonight, so vfr conditions are forecast. However, a renewed push of
more widespread activity is expected toward sunrise in se Missouri
and far west KY. The timing of this activity in the kevv/kowb areas
may be more toward midday. At this time, there is considerable
variability among the models concerning the specific timing of more
organized rain and storms for Friday. Winds will be rather strong
aloft, but low level wind shear is not forecast at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MY