221
FXUS63 KPAH 301905
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will continue until a cold front
  makes passage tonight. The main hazards with any storm are torrential
  rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds. Flooding and severe
  threats are both marginal.

- An extended period of dry weather is expected mid to late
  week, lingering into most of the upcoming holiday weekend.
  Rain chances may return on Sunday.

- A reprieve from the high humidity is expected Wednesday-
  Thursday. Afterwards, both temps and humidity levels trend
  upwards for the Independence Day holiday weekend with highs in
  the 90s and heat index readings in the mid 90s to low 100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A shortwave trough across the Midwest will slide eastward into the
Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will allow a cold front to sink
southeast across our region tonight. Forcing along and ahead of the
boundary will kick off showers and storms. While some isolated
activity is possible this afternoon, it appears coverage will be
higher this evening into the early overnight period, before
dwindling heading into early Tuesday morning. 0-6km shear is quite
limited, maybe up to 25 kts. PWs are high, ranging from 2-2.2"
though. Instability will also be decent, with MLCAPE above 2000
J/kg. Thus, can`t rule out some stronger downdrafts generating some
severe winds with a storm or two. A localized flash flooding threat
is also present. Any sort of training of convection could generate
some narrow swaths up to or possibly exceeding 2". Low level
moisture lingers on Tuesday, which may allow some isolated showers
or storms to continue across west Kentucky through at least the
first half of the day.

Surface high pressure will maintain an extended period of dry
weather Wednesday through Saturday. Dew points, which have been
consistently in the mid to upper 70s for 10 days now, will finally
trend down into the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday and Thursday.
Winds turn back around to southerly by Friday into next weekend
though, which will allow dew points to sneak back above 70 (and
possibly mid 70s again by Sunday).

Upper level ridging builds back into the region in time for
Independence Day. As 850mb temps rise from 15-16C to around 19-20C
for the weekend, highs will nudge back above 90. Heat index readings
in the mid to upper 90s on Friday will trend closer to or just above
100 over the weekend. While most of the holiday weekend looks dry,
there are some indications of height falls on Sunday as troughing
lifts from the Plains into the Upper Midwest. This may lead to some
convection sneaking south into our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Low cigs (MVFR/IFR) have been slow to lift, especially at
KEVV/KOWB, but should transition to VFR by around 19z. Isolated
showers and storms are possible this afternoon, but models are
trending towards higher coverage this evening into early
overnight (00-07z). Therefore, with chances too low at any one
terminal this afternoon have left TSRA mention out until
after 00z. WSW winds this afternoon switch around to the
NW tomorrow morning behind the frontal passage overnight.
Guidance is hinting at some MVFR cigs tomorrow morning,
particularly across west KY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP