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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191921
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
221 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A stretch of dry weather will continue through mid-week, helping
to dry out places in western KY that had a weekend deluge. Surface
high pressure over the Ozarks will drift east across southwest KY
and west Tennessee on Tuesday. This high will keep dew points
generally in the mid 50`s to lower 60`s. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the lower 60`s. Although highs will reach the upper 80`s
Tuesday, humidity will be low. Skies should average mainly clear,
with the exception of some scattered daytime cumulus clouds.
Models indicate a period of high moisture in the 850-700 mb layer
tonight, which means there could be a short period of broken
clouds overnight.

Model disagreement begins to increase Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The 12z nam is an outlier with the cold front that comes
down toward the Lower Wabash Valley Wednesday, accompanied by
scattered convection in southwest Indiana. The model consensus
keeps things dry, so that will be the route taken for now.

Humidity levels may increase somewhat Wednesday, depending on the
model of choice. The GFS has tended to bring a tropical system
more northward toward the central Gulf coast, which keeps our low-
level winds drier and more easterly. The nam/ecmwf indicates a
more westward track of the low, which results in a more humid
south to southeast flow over our region. Regardless of which track
is correct, highs should be near 90 on Wednesday with lows at
night in the upper 60`s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The mean overall North American upper air pattern places an
elongated ridge in the desert southwest/California peninsula and a
multi-vortex cyclonic circulation in eastern Canada, sandwiched
between Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes late this week and into the
weekend.

The WFO PAH forecast area is essentially in a col, with weighting
toward the more zonal flow (straight west to east flow of upper
level winds). Several runs have placed the WFO PAH forecast area
just in the base of these westerlies.

Looking at the Ensemble guidance and previous trends from the
Canadian/ECMWF/GFS data, the overall trend is to have most of the
WFO PAH forecast area in relative minimum for moderate to excessive
precipitation amounts, especially Friday into Saturday. The
influence of the tropical/subtropical system in the Gulf of Mexico
(being assessed by NHC/WPC) and model trends continue to suggest
that the Quad State region will remain on the extreme northwest limb
of any moderate precipitation at this time. Only southern Christian
and Todd counties in West Kentucky may see more copious amounts of
rain with the late week precipitation system.

With the potential of deep layer moisture being shunted to the
southeast of the WFO PAH forecast area and the potential for slight
amplification of the zonal flow (toward more northwest flow) over
the weekend, do not see a significant reason for more than high
chance PoPs Friday and Saturday.  Have low confidence on PoPs later
in the weekend. as the mean baroclinic zone should shift further
south as previously advertised by the ECMWF/Canadian numerical
guidance this past weekend.

Given the weaker shear, thermal and dewpoint profiles aloft, pockets
of heavy rain will be possible, along with the potential for
isolated wet microburst late this week in stronger storms.

For the rest of the sensible weather elements such as temperature,
dewpoint, winds, and sky cover, kept close to the regionally blended
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Northwest winds will be on the gusty side this afternoon in the
kevv/kowb areas. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will linger across
the kevv/kowb areas. Clouds will melt away and winds will become
calm around sunset as high pressure passes very close to our region.
Some clouds based around 7k feet are likely tonight, but any cigs
should be rather short-lived. Skies will again be clear on Tuesday
morning with light winds, mostly out of the west.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY