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054
FXUS63 KPAH 201121
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Updated for aviation forecast discussion for 12Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

High pressure centered over the Appalachians at this time, will
eventually break down and/or head further east to the east coast
today. Clouds will continue to slowly increase with time, starting
with high clouds increasing today, with low to mid clouds by
Saturday. We will continue to stay dry today and tonight, waiting
for our next system to arrive.

During the day on Saturday, a cold front will be makings its way
across the central Plains states. Any developing showers out ahead
of the front in our area should be rather limited but not entirely
zero, especially in parts of southeast MO where the better moisture
will be residing.

By 00Z Sunday, southerly winds will be continuing to bring moisture
into the region, with dew points reaching the 60s by Saturday night.
By Saturday evening, we will start seeing a better chance for some
showers in southeast MO. However, the bulk of the precipitation
should arrive after 06Z Sunday and into the day on Sunday, as the
front continues to press eastward. Most of the short term models
indicate that by 12Z Sunday, the rain will be impacting all areas
except for parts of southwest IN and parts of west KY. During the
day on Sunday, the front will slowly move across the area, providing
continued chances for showers and some thunderstorms. Precipitable
waters will be ranging between 1.50-1.75 which is very high for this
time of the year so heavy rainfall will be a threat. A couple of
inches of rain is certainly possible in spots.

The severe weather threat is continues to look low. Winds below
500mb are only 30-40kts with a stronger upper jet in place, and
meager instability values and average lapse rates. Therefore, agree
with SPC`s Day 3 outlook of general thunder for now.

Models are finally in pretty good agreement on an upper level closed
low developing Sunday evening in the Arklatex region. This will help
to insure a definitely slower exit to the precipitation. Even though
precipitation will be continuing across our region Sunday evening,
exactly what areas will see the bulk of the rain will still need to
be ironed out. This upper low does not move much during the
overnight hours on Sunday night into early Monday, so maintained
high chances for rain during that period as well. However, best
chances for additional rain will be east of the Mississippi.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A cold front will still be positioned across the region as we start
the new work week. Models are in good agreement that a low will
develop south of here along the front and move north into the
eastern Great Lakes by late Tuesday. A couple of pieces of energy
will pinwheel around the low as it strengthens however any
precipitation should stay north of the forecast area. With all that
said, precipitation should be east of the Mississippi River by
Monday afternoon and out of our easternmost counties by Tuesday
morning.

Behind the front on Tuesday, temperatures will struggle into the
lower 60s with breezy northwest winds. Winds could gust around 20
mph Tuesday afternoon. Neither the operational GFS nor ECMWF show a
big push of cold air. Overnight lows Tuesday night and Wednesday
night will drop down to around 40 degrees. Upper 30s in outlying
areas will certainly be possible with perhaps some patchy frost.
Temperatures will be tempered by cloud cover toward the end of the
week as another front approaches on Thursday. Chances for
precipitation increase by the end of the week although there are
some model differences in the timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions will continue throughout the 24 hour TAF period as a
ridge in the flow aloft builds. Meanwhile, surface high pressure
will remain over the Appalachians, providing southerly winds 5 to 10
knots during the day and near calm conditions at night. Expect an
increase in high clouds through the period with some lower level
moisture approaching very late in the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$