Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

An active pattern will continue over the next several days. Many
topics warrant discussion again with this forecast package,
including lingering showers and a few thunderstorms today,
unseasonable warmth through Thursday, and another chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night. Forecast confidence
remains higher than average through the bulk of the near term with
good overall model agreement.

Through Thursday night, an energetic west southwest flow pattern
will persist over the Heartland. Increasing Gulf moisture on
strong low level south to southwest winds will interact with a
couple of disturbances to result in the potential for showers and
a few thunderstorms. The first such round is ongoing at the time
of this discussion and will continue through much of the morning.
Marginal elevated instability has sparked some lighting strikes
mainly over southern Illinois. Expect the continuation of widely
scattered thunderstorms across the area through about mid morning
when the atmospheric profile aloft stabilizes. Rainfall amounts in
the one quarter to one half inch range are still expected with
this first round of activity.

Rain chances decrease from west to east this afternoon, tonight,
and into early Thursday. That said, it`s difficult to rule out
the development of widely scattered showers in the moist flow
regime--particularly late tonight into early Thursday morning as a
very weak ripple of energy passes by.

Another round of showers will accompany the approach and passage
of a cold front Thursday night into Friday. Once again, marginal
elevated instability supports at least a slight chance of thunder,
particularly during the evening hours Thursday. Rainfall totals
with this round are forecast to range around one half inch. Multi-
day totals in the ballpark of an inch should not be enough to
cause significant water problems. Fortunately, temperatures
through much of the event are expected to remain warm enough to
keep the precipitation in liquid form. A brief mix with snow is
possible on Friday as the precipitation tapers off from northwest
to southeast. However, no impacts are expected at this time.

A warming trend will take place through Thursday, with sharply
colder conditions by Friday. Highs today are forecast in the upper
50s to near 60 degrees, with readings near the 70 degree mark on
Thursday. Highs on Friday will likely occur early in the day, with
much of the day spent in the 30s. Breezy conditions will develop
today, but it will be downright windy tomorrow with sustained
winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph forecast.
Blustery conditions will continue on Friday as winds shift to
the northwest behind the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Models bring the front that had moved to our south back north
Saturday, which will spread wintry precipitation north across the
PAH forecast Saturday morning. GFS is more aggressive in how far
north it spreads precipitation compared to the ECMWF, but the
overall consensus is there will be at least some light
precipitation area wide. Snow and rain/snow will gradually change
over to all rain from south to north Saturday morning. Rain
showers will continue through the afternoon, ending from west to
east late Saturday afternoon into very early Saturday evening.
Overall QPF is a tenth to a quarter inch, and any snow amounts
would just be a tenth or two to none at all, and any snow will not
stick around long with the rain on top and temperatures climbing
into the 40s.

Models show high pressure will quickly take control behind this
system.  Winds will shift back to the south on Sunday, and after
near seasonal lows Saturday night, highs on Sunday will be 5 to 7
degrees above seasonal normals.

Sunday night, models show a low pressure system to our west lifting
a warm front across our region, which will spread chances of showers
from southwest to northeast.  The low will move slowly east for the
beginning of the work week, and this will keep us in a warm and
unsettled pattern.  Showers are likely Monday through Tuesday, and
the persistent southerly flow will give us temperatures 10 to 20
degrees above seasonal normals.


Issued at 1156 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

An upper level disturbance will quickly head northeastward toward
the region tonight. IFR cigs are forecast to expand from southwest
to northeast overnight. LIFR cigs are quite likely, and could linger
well into the daylight hours Wed. The cigs will be accompanied by
rain showers increasing in coverage through the night and
diminishing west-to-east during the day Wed. A few lightning strikes
are possible mainly in western KY toward daybreak, but there was not
enough confidence to include in the TAFs. Confidence in the
visibility forecast was less than for the cig forecast. For now, we
will continue with IFR vsbys in rain showers and fog. Southerly to
southwesterly winds less than 10 knots are forecast to increase in
the latter half of the 06Z TAF period.




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