Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Issued at 555 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

In the wake of Wednesday evening`s frontal passage, colder air
will continue to filter into the region on modest north winds.
Satellite imagery indicates the continued advection of low clouds
across northern and central portions of the region overnight.
NAM12 and RAP13 925mb dewpoint depression fields suggest the
leading edge of the cloud cover may continue to sag slowly south
encompassing most of the area by daybreak. Thereafter, it`s not
entirely clear how much cloud cover will stick around today. The
cloud layer is relatively thin per sounding data, so expect at
least some partial erosion in the low deck by afternoon. Even so,
a fair amount of high clouds above 15 kft will be streaming into
the region from the west. Overall sky forecast for today is partly
to mostly cloudy, which will likely keep temperatures from warming
a great deal. Forecast high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower
40s are on the low end of guidance. On the bright side, fire
potential will not be as substantial today with less wind and
higher humidity.

An elongated upper level trough will push through late tonight
and early Friday, but with little moisture to work with, no
precipitation is expected. As surface high pressure slips south of
the region, winds will back to the west on Friday as temperatures
warm into the 40s for highs. That`s about 5 degrees warmer than
today. Even warmer readings in the 50s are expected on Saturday
as winds turn southerly in response to low pressure developing
over the Plains. In fact, Saturday will be quite breezy with
southwest winds 10 to 15 mph and occasional gusts of 20 to 25 mph.
With dry vegetation and relatively low humidity, the elevated
fire potential will likely return on Saturday. While high clouds
may begin to increase late in the day, any chance for rain should
hold off until later Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

The latest runs of the medium range models still contain a decent
signal for a light rain event later Saturday night into Sunday as a
mid level short wave ejects northeast and dampens as it moves across
the region. Amounts should stay below a third of an inch at most
locations. A second more positively tilted shortwave will move
through early next week. This wave looks to be more moisture
starved, so little if any rainfall is expected. Another southern
branch system should remain detached and stay south of the region.

Otherwise, ridging aloft will build over the central part of the
country by mid week, and bring a surface high into the region. The
high will not be of Canadian origin, so temperatures should stay
close to normal for this time of year.


Issued at 555 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Forecast models still do not have a good handle on the cloud cover
enshrouding much of the region early this morning. Will keep the
forecast on the pessimistic side through much of the day, with low
VFR ceilings averaging 3-4 kft. Some erosion in the low cloud deck
is possible, especially by afternoon, but another layer of mid to
high clouds is forecast to stream through as well. North winds will
average 5 to 10 knots today, then become light and back to the
northwest/west tonight. Gustiness in the KEVV/KOWB area should
diminish through the morning as the pressure gradient relaxes.




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