Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
150 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

The short term forecast will see surface High pressure holding
strong/shifting east, and returning low level southerlies to the
FA. H5 heights, already starting to rise, will build some
additional 60 meters plus by Friday, as its ridge axis builds
across the Mississippi and Tennesse river valleys. 850 MB temps
respond with a good 4-5C increase over the course of the short
term forecast. Time/height cross sections show a predominantly dry
column save for some moisture showing up at/above 400 mb off and
on thru the period, mostly Friday. All of this adds up to us, and
neighboring offices, favoring a collaborative nudge upwards from
the blend, for High temps daily, similar to how we`ve done each of
the past couple nights.

Other weather features of note include early morning fog, esp near
water bodies, probably most pronounced this morning. In addition,
driest rh mins in the pm hours will range thru the 30s percentile,
w/the SEMO Ozarks again experiencing the lowest of these min RH`s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Confidence remains fairly good with the extended...however there
is some discontinuity with timing of frontal passage. Confidence
is still high with a frontal passage Sunday.

We will start the extended with high pressure in charge of the
weather and much above normal temperatures. The southerly flow on
the back side of the high will continue to usher gulf moisture into
the region ahead of the approaching cold front late in the weekend.
Again pops start in the west late Saturday...mainly west of the
Interstate 57 corridor. The Canadian and GFS are supportive of
this start time. The ECMWF is several hours slower with the
arrival in the west early Sunday morning. Its not uncommon for the
GFS to slow its timing as we near the arrival of synoptic scale
systems. However the Canadian has supported this fropa when the
ECMWF didn`t even have a front. So will not dismiss the earlier
start time possibility. The best instability will of course be
pre-frontal, and the grids already reflect this with the best
chance of thunder late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
After that, decrease to isolated or slgt chc during the day
Sunday. Again the chance of rain is highest during the frontal
passage Sunday. Chances really fall off Sunday night with dry and
cooler conditions arriving early next week. In fact by mid week we
could be below normal for temperatures...will monitor this
closely as grids do not currently reflect this at this time. As we
just witnessed the blend is not capturing the outbreak of colder
air this time of season.


Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

IR Satellite pics reveal sharp contrast between warm water/cool
land and offer best areal zones for another pre dawn development
of Fog, already showing up at some local sites if not yet at
terminals. These could result in some short lived drops in vsbys
or low lift/cloud heights prior to/just after sunrise, similar to
Tuesday morning. High pressure controls an otherwise VFR
forecast, but southerly return winds do pick up this pm, with some
gusts into the teens kts possible at times.




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