Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 170746
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
146 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Monday night

A cold front is currently moving through the area at this time. Most
of the the lightning and thunder has ended but some rain showers
will continue through the morning for many locations across the
northern two thirds of the area. A few showers will linger into the
morning hours as well. However, with ridging building across the
area the coverage of showers should decrease through the day with
all areas largely dry by mid afternoon. A thunderstorms or two may
linger in the early afternoon as well, but these should be few and
far between. However, clouds will linger across much of the area in
the morning with increased sunshine through the afternoon.
Temperatures should run about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
As for wind, there will still be a gusty wind across southern
portions and Johnson County but as a rule it should be less
windy.

Starting tonight, we will enter a quiet period of weather with
ridging and dry northwest flow dominating the weather for the most
part. Other than a gusty breeze in the west, tranquil weather is
expected for Father`s Day as well as Monday. Temperatures will also
be on an upward trend with 80s returning to the lower elevations by
Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday

Through the long term, the forecast area will be in a modest to
strong westerly flow between a subtropical ridge over the
Southern Rockies/S. Plains, and the main storm track over southern
Canada/N. Rockies/Plains. On Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be
enough instability for at least isolated mountain convection
pushing into the adjacent foothills. A weak cold front could push
into N. Wyoming Wednesday. The best shot for convection Tuesday
and Wednesday appears to be across the northwest/northern
mountains. Global models then show a more robust cold front
pushing across the area Wednesday night/Thursday time frame with
cooler, but with a drier airmass. The best cooling will be across
N. WY with the least over the southwest with models limiting any
chances of diurnal convection across the extreme north Thursday
through Saturday for now.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z Issuance

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

Showers should be mostly out of the area by 12z Saturday. Partial
clearing may result in local IFR-LIFR cigs and patchy fog vicinity
KJAC-KBPI-KPNA until 14z.  A drier northwest flow will prevail from
NW-SE 14z-18z Saturday with isolated showers lingering over the
mountains. VFR conditions and light wind will prevail Saturday
night.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

An upper level disturbance and associated cold front will continue
to bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area
through 12z.  Some lower MVFR ceilings may follow the front, mainly
down the Interstate 25 corridor, vicinity KBYG-KCPR, through 14z
Saturday.  A drier NW flow will then prevail late Saturday morning
through the afternoon with gusty surface north wind 10-20kts.  Winds
will diminish early Saturday evening with VFR conditions, unlimited
ceilings, prevailing Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Expect a cooler day today following the passage of a cold front. A
few showers will linger in the morning, but coverage should
decrease through the day before ending by this evening. A gusty
wind will continue across south and western Wyoming as well as
portions of Johnson County. Relative humidity will remain above
critical levels. Mixing and smoke dispersal will be generally good
to very good. Dry weather will return Sunday and Monday along with
gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hattings
LONG TERM...Murrell
AVIATION...Meunier
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings



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