Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
FXUS65 KRIW 231713
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1113 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE RADAR SCOPE WIPED CLEAN.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER CONVECTION WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS BILLINGS AND WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
WYOMING LATER THIS MORNING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT TO TO
THE NORTH ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE EAST OF THE DIVIDE THAT WILL
QUICKLY DRY OUT LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SWEETWATER COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG
WITH AN RH IN THE LOW TEENS TODAY BUT FUELS ARE STILL NOT CONSIDERED
CRITICAL THERE YET. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE
TONIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH ANOTHER
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND A TEMPORARY SURGE OF MOISTURE. THESE MOIST
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SNEAK THERE WAY INTO THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE. SUNDAYS WEATHER WILL
BE MUCH LIKE TODAYS, JUST WARM AND DRY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND IN
SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY. BY
MONDAY, THE HIGH NOW OVER TEXAS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND EXPAND NORTH WARMING OUR TEMPERATURES. ALSO IT APPEARS WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY CONVECTION MONDAY WITH LOWER LIFTED
INDICES AND INCREASING CAPES, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday
Another mainly dry/very warm to hot day is expected Tuesday with
perhaps isolated mountain convection trying to push into the
adjacent foothills mainly along and east of the Divide. Models
then show a cold front pushing south, east of the Divide Wednesday
and remaining quasi-stationary east of the Divide Thursday and
Friday. In wake of this front a more moist environment will be in
place. This additional moisture with peak heating and better shear
should result in isolated to scattered convection along and east
of the Divide with an emphasis on Thursday. West of the Divide
will remain in a dry atmosphere with little or no convection
expected at precipitable water values remain at or below 0.50 of
an inch, while areas east of the Divide could approach 1 inch.
Ridging is progged to build into the area Saturday with the front
washing out with a drier airmass pushing back into the area.
VFR conditions will occur through Sunday morning. Isolated showers
or storms may develop over far northwest WY toward 00z and continue
until 06z Sun.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. COOLER DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN ZONE 277 TODAY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW
TEENS AND WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, IN SPITE OF THE COOLER
WEATHER. HOWEVER, FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL THERE. EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE IN THE JACKSON VALLEY, THE WIND RIVER
BASIN, THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN, AND THE BIG HORN BASIN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.