Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 080554
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1054 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WIND MAY RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE THE WIND
CORRIDOR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS AND CASPER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

OVERALL...UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE LONG TERM AS IT IS DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DISTURBANCE
ZIPPING BY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL ONE
EARLY ON FRIDAY THAT WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THESE WEAK
WAVES WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN
COOLING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...BACK TOWARD SOMETHING
RESEMBLING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSIONS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZY DAYS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND FROM SOUTH
PASS TO CASPER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AT
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE DOWNSLOPED AND BETTER MIXED AREAS.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WERE NOT
ALTERED MUCH...ASIDE FROM EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE
DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
MONDAY MORNING...BUT A TURBULENT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS SLIM IN
WILL KEEP FOG/LOW CLOUDS OUT OF KJAC TERMINAL FOR NOW. HAVING SAID
THAT...THERE IS A NICE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WEST OF THE TETONS IN
EASTERN IDAHO TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A BKN DECK OF MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 070-120 KFT AGL THROUGH MID
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DURING MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER SHOT AT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS...MAINLY
OVER FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT EVEN OVER CENTRAL
BASINS. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO KJAC TERMINAL FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA. WILL
ALSO KEEP VCFG MENTION OUT OF CENTRAL BASINS INCLUDING KRIW AND KWRL
TERMINALS AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT DEPTH OF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHICH
MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY
WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM


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