Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 282058
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
258 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

UPR SW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT JUST TOUCHING THE CORNER OF NW WY AT
NOON...RACING EWD. WINDS REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS SFC WARMS...WINDS ALOFT AND P GRAD INCREASE. RAISED
ADDITIONAL HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO THE CURRENT FCST FOR ZONES 2 AND
3...ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...WITH GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH
ALREADY STARTING TO RAISE THEIR UGLY HEADS. PRECIP ATTM IS CURRENTLY
MAINLY N OF THE FA...AND ALONG TO SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CHANGED FCST SHOWERS TO SHOWERS W/ ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE CWA
AS INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE INDICES GROW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE MAINLY DRY THUNDER EVERYWHERE BUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
JUST GOING WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW. STILL...WILL NOT BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUM PRECIP AT ANY RATE. FIRE DANGER WOULD BE HIGH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA EXCEPT THE MOUNTAINS IF ALL FUELS WERE
CRITICAL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE ONLY A FEW FWX ZONES ARE CRITICAL...WILL
STICK WITH CURRENT FCST...WITH FWX ZONES 280 281 AND 283 AS RED FLAG
THRU 03Z TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...UPR WAVE AND SFC FRONT THRU THIS EVE...WITH SECONDARY
UPR WAVE AND SFC FRONT PUSHING THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS NERN WY AFTER MIDNIGHT...DECREASING
AFTER 09Z. SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUD OUT
WEST...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHC FOR PRECIP THRU THE DAY. POST
FRONTAL WINDS UNDER BUILDING HIGH P AND AND A MUCH MORE RELAXED P
GRAD WILL ALSO DECREASE GREATLY COMPARED TO THOSE OF TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
GENERAL WARMING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST ON MONDAY
WITH CONTINUED WARMING...OVER AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST AND WINDIEST DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PICK UP IN THE EVENING
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SIGNIFICANT
COOLING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD
BECOME THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.  HOWEVER...DUE TO A
STRONG BUT MAINLY DRY SURFACE FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT...MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST...VICINITY AND NORTH OF A KCPR-KGCC LINE THIS EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED WITH CEILINGS
FL120-140...AND ABLE TO PRODUCE STRONG ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE...STRONG SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-40
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH 09Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED VICINITY AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN
KCPR AND KGCC...BECOMING LIGHTER IN MOST AREAS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO THE EVENING...AS A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRING A COMBINATION OF GUSTY STRONG WIND...ALONG WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS WITH A LACK OF SNOW
COVER...WITH DISPATCH ZONES 283...281 AND 280...WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL...UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.
OVERALL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ002-003.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT WYZ010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








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