Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 070558
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1158 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT)

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP IN THE NORTH AND EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS/GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL DRAW UP MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER HIGH LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY ENHANCED BY PASSING SHORT WAVES
EJECTED FROM A PERSISTENT ALASKAN LOW/JET STREAK COMBO...OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE.

ANOTHER FEATURE SETTLING ALONG THE DIVIDE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT...THAT IN ADDITION TO THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES WILL LEAD TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND AWAY FROM THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SURGES OF MORE ROBUST MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT
MAY OR MAY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED BASED ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING
EXPECTED TO OCCUR...THEY WILL LIKELY FORM EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN WITHOUT ANY DYNAMIC HELP IN THE FORM OF A SHORT
WAVE OR JET STREAK...THOUGH THESE FEATURES WOULD CERTAINLY HELP
INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WAS FAIRLY
GENEROUS WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE
WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE LESS OPPRESSIVE
...HOPEFULLY AS THE WEEK MOVES ALONG WE WILL BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY
THOSE MORE INTENSE DAYS WHERE THE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MORE
BROAD SCALE DYNAMIC LIFT CAN SYNC UP.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KCOD-KBYG
LINE THROUGH 8Z WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY VCNTY AND N-E OF
INTERSTATE 90 9Z-12Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS MORNING...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO VCNTY KRIW-KCPR
LINE 15Z-18Z MONDAY AND ACROSS INTERSTATE 80 21Z MON-00Z TUE.  SFC
N-NE WIND 10-20KT AND ISOLD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
VCNTY AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH AREAS BKN110-130 MSL CIGS...OCNL
HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS.  AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH UNLIMITED CIGS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...VCNTY KRKS WHERE NE WIND 15-25KT
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY EVENING.  WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING WITH SOME WEAK SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REDEVELOP IN THE NORTH AND EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER









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