187
FXUS64 KTSA 132016
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
316 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid/upper level low pressure was positioned over Eastern Kansas
as of mid afternoon with scattered showers and storms rotating
around the wave. At the same time a surface low was also located
over far Eastern Kansas with a trailing surface boundary extending
into Oklahoma along a line from near Miami to Okemah and back into
South Central Oklahoma. Along and east of this boundary additional
showers/storms were developing into a slightly more favorable
instability environment with surface CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg.
Behind the surface boundary...additional development was also
taking place along an elevated band of frontogenetic forcing
between 925-mb to 700-mb. Both surface and elevated instability
were slightly weaker in this area...though was aided by the vort
max associated with the mid/upper low.

Into this evening...showers/storms are forecast to continue to
develop into a broken line along and east of the surface
boundary and push eastward through Southeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas. Surface/elevated instability out ahead of the
boundary should remain maximized through sunset and then begin to
weaken through the evening hours. In response...a limited to
locally elevated severe potential is capable within this
thunderstorm activity. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts
are the primary threats. A very low tornado threat cannot be
ruled out as well into this evening with directional shear in
place and the vort max moving into the CWA. At this time...the
tornado potential was mainly over far Eastern Oklahoma and also
Northwest Arkansas. Majority of the storm development is progged
to exit the CWA after 03z this evening

Behind the surface boundary...more scattered shower/storm
potential will continue along/near the elevated frontogenetic
forcing band and the mid/upper trof moving into the CWA. Limited
severe potentials exist within this area of storm development as
well with large hail and gusty/strong winds the main threat. Most
of this activity is expected to be exiting the CWA by 06z.

Overnight tonight...the mid/upper trof axis moves across the CWA
and should be exiting early Tuesday morning. Between
06-12z...there is an isolated shower potential with precip trying
to wrap back around the low. Cloud cover tonight along with the
potential for some patchy areas of fog should keep low temps in
the 50s for most locations.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tuesday morning the mid/upper low is forecast to be positioned
over Western/Central Missouri with the trof axis having exited the
CWA. This wave will continue to move off to the east with the
backside of the departing low exiting by Tuesday evening. Low end
chances for additional showers/storms remain forecast over mainly
far Northeast Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas during the day.
Severe potentials remain quite low on the backside of the low.

Once the precip exits and the low moves farther away...rising
heights are expected Tuesday night with clearing conditions and
light winds become more east/southeast. These conditions could
potentially allow for areas of fog development once again over
parts of Northwest Arkansas. Back over Northeast
Oklahoma...additional cloud cover is forecast to move in late
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a mid level impulse approaches
from the west. There is a slight chance of showers/storms moving
into Northeast Oklahoma as this impulse pushes through. Underneath
this cloud cover...temps look to warm into the 70s/low 80s while
mid 80s are forecast along/south of Interstate 40.

Storm chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday for the CWA
in response to a lead wave ejecting out of the Desert Southwest
ahead of the parent upper low. The greater storm chances are
currently forecast over Northeast Oklahoma underneath the lead
wave. Storm chances continue Thursday into Friday with the parent
upper low progged to move out and across the Southern/Central
Plains. There still remains some uncertainty among the extended
model solutions with the timing/progression of this wave.
However...there is slightly more agreement than 24-hrs ago. For
this forecast...the upper low is forecast to exit Friday night
with the backside of the wave departing Saturday morning.
Thus...will hold onto PoPs into Saturday morning before tapering
them off from west to east.

Temperatures in the 70s/low 80s are forecast late week and then
look to warm into the mid 80s over the weekend behind the exiting
precip chances.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The overall trend to start the forecast will be for current MVFR
ceilings to become low-end VFR (035-045 kft). Showers and
thunderstorms should re-develop early in the forecast period over
much of the area, with western AR sites and possibly KMLC more
likely to see a direct impact from storms. Once storms move out
this evening, a period of VFR conditions will prevail. However,
MVFR ceilings will return to western AR late tonight, and
potentially back-building into parts of NE OK early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  79  57  82 /  20   0   0  10
FSM   60  77  57  85 /  40  10   0  10
MLC   57  80  56  86 /  20   0   0  10
BVO   55  78  54  81 /  40   0   0  20
FYV   57  71  53  82 /  40  30   0  10
BYV   57  71  54  80 /  50  40   0  10
MKO   58  78  56  84 /  20   0   0  10
MIO   57  74  54  79 /  30  30   0  20
F10   56  79  56  84 /  20   0   0  10
HHW   59  81  57  86 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...14