984
FXUS64 KTSA 190533
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 901 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper ridging in place and high pressure just off to the east will
allow for quiet conditions overnight. Current first period elements
are in line with latest trends, therefore no update is planned at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are anticipated Sunday into
Tuesday in advance of the next cold front set to move through the
region on Wednesday. High temperatures each afternoon during that
time-frame is expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

There will likely be at least a couple of opportunities for showers/storms
across the area before the cold front moves through the region mid-week.
The first chance will come Sunday evening/night as thunderstorms develop
along the dry line to the west Sunday afternoon and spread into
northeast Oklahoma and possibly far northwest Arkansas. These storms could
initially be strong to severe when they enter the area with a decrease in
intensity expected as the storms spread further east. Marginally
severe winds and hail would be the concern with the strongest storms. There
will be a greater potential for storms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night as a mid-level low moves across the northern/central Plains and pushes
a cold front into the region. There is expected to be plentiful instability
and increasing deep layer shear for any storms that develop or move into the
area to be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. There
will also be the potential for tornadoes during this time.

The chances of showers/storms does not come to end Wednesday as the cold front
moves into northern Texas. Daily shower/storm chances continue right into the
weekend as the front returns north as a warm front Thursday and the next storm
system approaches Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
brief period of fog is possible at KFYV early this morning, and
showers and thunderstorms may affect the northeast Oklahoma sites
late Sunday evening. South winds will gust over 20 knots at times
Sunday at the northeast Oklahoma sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  68  91  73 /   0  40   0   0
FSM   91  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   90  70  90  73 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   88  65  90  70 /   0  50   0  10
FYV   88  65  89  70 /   0  10  10   0
BYV   88  65  88  70 /   0  10  10   0
MKO   88  68  89  72 /   0  20   0   0
MIO   88  66  88  70 /   0  30  10  10
F10   88  68  89  73 /   0  20   0   0
HHW   88  68  88  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...05