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000
FXUS64 KTSA 151955
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS LARGELY IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT SINCE THIS MORNING...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE INSTABILITY DRIVEN...AS SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH
OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. EARLIER STORMS IN WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY DROPPED ALMOST TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES AT THE BURBANK MESONET
SITE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LESS CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER AREAWIDE THAN TODAY.

IT IS LIKELY THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT IN WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
JET IN NORTHERN KANSAS...AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...WITH SOME PARTS OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE AN INCH OR TWO
OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE FOR THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS
AND FORCES THE STORM TRACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE
HEAT BACK TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  90  70  86 /  30  40  80  70
FSM   70  90  70  86 /  40  40  50  70
MLC   71  91  71  87 /  30  40  60  70
BVO   70  90  69  85 /  30  40  80  50
FYV   66  86  66  81 /  40  40  70  80
BYV   67  87  66  82 /  40  40  70  80
MKO   71  89  70  86 /  30  40  70  80
MIO   69  89  67  83 /  40  40  80  70
F10   71  90  71  87 /  20  40  60  70
HHW   71  91  71  90 /  40  30  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22