392
FXUS64 KTSA 131532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1032 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Earlier line of showers and storms has moved off into north
central AR and weakened this morning, however scattered storms
continue to re-develop from near OKC into part of east central OK.
All of this activity will ultimately help reinforce a sfc
boundary from NW AR into SE OK this afternoon, which will become
focus of additional storm development this afternoon as the upper
trough axis shifts over the forecast area and, as a result, wind
fields will strengthen and result in a few strong to severe
storms, mainly hail and wind. There is some hint at low level
directional shear developing across west central AR, where a non-
zero tornado threat could develop. Updated forecast will reflect
higher POPs in the 21-00z time frame from NW AR into part of SE
OK, with this idea supported by most 12z CAM solutions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

With the trough axis passing overhead tonight, any lingering showers
and storms this evening should tend to become increasingly sparse...
with only low chances of precip overnight for far NE OK/ NW AR
zones. It is not out of question to see some showers/ isolated
thunder pop up Tuesday afternoon across NW AR as moisture wraps
around the departing system, so have maintained low PoPs here.
Although, QPF from this activity should remain quite light.

Expecting a break from precip chances Tuesday night into Wednesday
as drier air is pulled into the region. This will be short-lived,
however, as another string of upper disturbances impact the region
Wednesday night through Friday, bringing several more rounds of
precip. While this pattern doesn`t look overly favorable for severe
weather, it does not take much this time of year... and at least a
limited severe threat may accompany storms during the late Wednesday-
Thursday period. Similar to yesterday and today, it appears heavy
rain potential will increase as PWATs climb to near 1.5" during this
time. WPC has included the region in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall with this activity as a result.

A cold front is projected to push into the region to finish the work
week which should bring another break in precip as the upper level
wave finally shifts east. Guidance really begins to diverge for the
weekend forecast, with some solutions suggesting a period of ridging
and dry weather... while others bring another upper low into the FA
providing another shot at showers and storms. Given these
discrepancies & uncertainty, have opted to leave NBM PoPs as they
are... which provides slight chance to chance for much of the area
Saturday & Sunday. The pattern appears to remain active as we head
into next week.

Highs will be a smidge cooler on Tuesday across far NE OK/ NW AR
under the influence of the upper low (Lower to mid 70s). Otherwise,
max temps will generally land in the upper 70s/ lower 80s through
the week, becoming noticeably warmer by the weekend in the 80s/
nearing 90 (especially if the aforementioned period of ridging
verifies). Expect lows in the 50s & 60s through the forecast period
and winds should remain tame and generally under 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Of immediate concern is the link of thunderstorms about to reach
the NE OK terminals and expected to reach the remaining ones
through the morning hours. Expect IFR conditions as the
thunderstorms pass, with improvement to MVFR afterward. Additional
thunderstorms remain expected this afternoon, with the W AR sites
and MLC most likely to have on-station impacts. Will carry
PROB30`s for such at those 5 sites, with a VCTS mention in NE OK.
VFR conditions should prevail for much of the overnight at the E
OK sites, with MVFR conditions redeveloping late in the period in
W AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  58  79  56 /  60  30  10   0
FSM   79  60  79  57 /  80  30  20   0
MLC   78  58  80  57 /  60  20  10   0
BVO   77  55  79  52 /  60  30  10   0
FYV   77  56  75  53 /  80  40  40   0
BYV   77  57  72  54 /  80  40  50   0
MKO   76  58  76  55 /  90  30  10   0
MIO   74  57  74  53 /  90  30  40   0
F10   77  57  78  55 /  70  20  10   0
HHW   78  59  80  57 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22