Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
201 FXUS65 KABQ 030017 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 617 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 554 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Monsoon moisture remains over much of northern and central New Mexico through Thursday, allowing for greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These will be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, mainly over area burn scars. - Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday, limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before rain chances rise Sunday going into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 An inverted trough over the area is forecast to lift northeast out of NM overnight and be replaced with increasing southwest flow aloft as a Pacific low, currently over southern CA per the latest water vapor, fills and moves east into AZ. Drier air aloft rotating around the Pacific low will overtake the area Thursday and result in increased moisture convergence. This, along with more favorable veering wind profiles, instability generated by daytime heating and added forcing from the shortwave trough (formerly the Pacific low) will add up to increased chances for storms, with some possibly becoming strong. Burn scar flash flooding will still be a concern Thursday, but will hold off on a flash flood watch for now given initial storm motion will be cross-basin on the HPCC scar and forcing will be less impressive further south near the Ruidoso area scars. A few storms may linger after sunset Thursday evening across eastern NM where favorable low level inflow will reside. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 PWATs will trend down dramatically on Independence Day as a drier airmass moves in behind the departing shortwave trough and a Monsoon high builds over NM through the holiday weekend. Expect a significant downtrend in daily rounds of storms Fri/Sat, with a few storms possible from the Sangre De Cristos east and south toward Clayton, Tucumcari and Clovis where sufficient moisture will remain. The Monsoon high is forecast to strengthen to near 595dam at 500mb over NM this weekend and will correlate with high temperatures rising to a few degrees above average most areas. PWATs will be back on the uptrend from early through mid next week as the upper high moves slowly westward, away from NM and low level moisture works northwest across the area under the upper high circulation. As a result, rounds of daytime heating triggered convection will be back on the uptrend, favoring the mountains during the afternoon hours and nearby highlands and valleys during the late afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees above average across central and western NM next week under the influence of the upper high. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue over southern, central, and western areas tonight, except for more numerous cells over the southwest mountains during the evening. Late tonight until mid-to-late morning Thursday, areas of low clouds east of the central mountain chain will produce MVFR and IFR conditions. There may also be some patchy fog. Thursday afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the forecast area with the greatest coverage along and west of the central mountain chain. Some thunderstorms will be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 45 KT. A few storms east of the central mountain chain may turn severe by producing large hail and damaging winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Good chances for wetting showers and storms will continue through Thursday and then get mostly shut-down on Fri/Sat as drier air moves in from the west and the Monsoon high builds over the region. Hotter conditions will prevail from late weekend through the middle of next week under the influence of the Monsoon high. Chances for wetting storms will be back on the uptrend during the late weekend through mid week period as moisture gets drawn into the Monsoon high circulation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 87 59 90 / 30 30 20 0 Dulce........................... 48 83 46 86 / 30 70 20 5 Cuba............................ 56 81 54 85 / 50 70 30 0 Gallup.......................... 52 82 49 86 / 60 70 20 0 El Morro........................ 53 79 52 83 / 60 70 20 0 Grants.......................... 53 82 52 88 / 40 70 20 0 Quemado......................... 57 79 55 83 / 60 70 30 10 Magdalena....................... 61 80 61 87 / 40 70 20 5 Datil........................... 55 76 56 83 / 70 70 20 10 Reserve......................... 54 84 51 90 / 70 70 20 10 Glenwood........................ 57 88 56 93 / 70 70 20 20 Chama........................... 47 78 45 80 / 30 70 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 59 79 58 83 / 40 70 40 5 Pecos........................... 55 79 56 84 / 40 70 30 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 81 53 83 / 20 70 20 10 Red River....................... 45 70 45 74 / 30 70 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 41 73 42 77 / 20 70 30 20 Taos............................ 52 83 50 85 / 20 70 20 10 Mora............................ 47 77 50 82 / 30 70 30 10 Espanola........................ 60 88 59 92 / 40 60 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 81 58 85 / 50 70 20 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 85 58 89 / 40 60 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 88 66 92 / 40 60 30 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 89 64 94 / 40 50 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 91 64 96 / 40 50 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 89 66 94 / 40 50 20 0 Belen........................... 64 91 63 95 / 40 50 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 91 64 95 / 40 50 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 63 90 62 95 / 40 50 30 0 Corrales........................ 66 91 65 95 / 40 50 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 65 90 63 95 / 40 50 30 0 Placitas........................ 63 86 63 90 / 40 60 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 89 65 94 / 40 50 20 0 Socorro......................... 67 90 66 97 / 50 60 20 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 82 57 85 / 40 60 30 0 Tijeras......................... 59 83 59 88 / 40 60 30 0 Edgewood........................ 55 82 55 87 / 40 60 30 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 83 53 88 / 40 60 30 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 77 56 83 / 30 60 30 0 Mountainair..................... 57 81 56 86 / 50 70 20 0 Gran Quivira.................... 57 81 56 86 / 50 70 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 61 82 62 89 / 50 70 30 5 Ruidoso......................... 54 73 57 81 / 50 70 30 20 Capulin......................... 54 78 53 82 / 20 40 30 20 Raton........................... 54 83 54 87 / 20 50 30 20 Springer........................ 57 84 56 89 / 20 50 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 54 79 54 86 / 30 70 30 5 Clayton......................... 61 83 61 90 / 20 20 30 10 Roy............................. 59 80 58 88 / 20 40 30 5 Conchas......................... 64 86 64 95 / 30 40 30 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 82 62 91 / 30 40 30 0 Tucumcari....................... 62 83 64 93 / 30 30 30 0 Clovis.......................... 63 82 65 93 / 50 30 30 5 Portales........................ 63 83 65 94 / 50 40 30 5 Fort Sumner..................... 63 84 64 95 / 30 30 30 0 Roswell......................... 67 85 68 96 / 50 40 20 0 Picacho......................... 62 81 61 90 / 50 70 30 5 Elk............................. 57 79 59 87 / 60 70 30 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44