


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
202 FXAK68 PAFC 010101 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 501 PM AKDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday afternoon)... Southcentral Alaska sits in a col between upper level ridging to the northeast and southwest, and upper level lows to the northwest and southeast. This will bring divergent weather across the region through midweek. For Kodiak Island and Southern Kenai Peninsula, the low to the northwest will push in a very moist front by early tomorrow morning. Satellite imagery currently shows precipitable water values of over 1.5 inches as the front makes its way across the Bering Sea. For Kodiak Island, 3-day rain totals could be around 2-3 inches as the front stalls overhead through Thursday. Southern Kenai Peninsula will be on the periphery of this front, so skies will be cloudy but rain amounts will be much, much lower. Mariners transiting around the Barren Islands should beware of winds to gale force tomorrow as the front moves through on Tuesday. For the remainder of Southcentral Alaska, generally expect warmer and more showery conditions (with isolated to scattered thunderstorms) under the influence of both the ridge to the north and the low near Southeast Alaska. For today, showers are tapering off in the wake of an upper level shortwave that moved across the region this morning. With skies clearing, warmer surface temperatures are helping to promote convection. There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms across the Copper River Basin this afternoon and evening, though the overall likelihood is lower due to the environment being tempered by the rain and fog from earlier today. Tomorrow looks even less favorable for showers or thunderstorms as the ridge nudges in and will likely suppress convection. By Wednesday afternoon, however, a robust shortwave diving south from the Arctic will bring the highest chances for thunderstorms so far this week. While instability does not look very impressive, favorable upper level dynamics and storm motion could lead to thunderstorms initiating along the northern Copper River Basin, then moving southwestward. The footprint for these thunderstorms could extend over much of the Copper River Basin, and perhaps even reaching the Chugach Mountains to the south and west. Easterly waves transiting across Southcentral on Thursday could also bring afternoon and evening thunderstorms, but where these storms initiate will depend on how far south the ridge to our north will nudge into Southcentral, which will, in turn, will affect how far south these easterly waves are displaced as they exit out of Canada. -KC && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night)... A mature low pressure system in the Bering Sea is currently pushing a strong front across Alaska`s west coast bringing gusty southerly winds and moderate to heavy rain to the region. Abundant tropical moisture associated with the system will allow continued rainfall through tomorrow for Southwest Alaska. Rain continues to linger across mainland Southwest through Tuesday evening with the heaviest along the southern AKPEN as the low tracks to the eastern Bering. The development of a triple point low to the south of the AKPEN will continue to bring additional rainfall to the AKPEN, Bristol Bay, and Southwest Alaska coast into Wednesday. A ridge builds in behind the low across the rest of the Bering with quieter weather across the Western and Central Aleutians tomorrow evening as the Eastern Aleutians contend with northerly flow and rain showers downstream of the ridge. Areas of fog are likely to redevelop for the western Bering and Aleutians, underneath the ridge. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)... Starting off the long term is the presence of an upper high in northern Alaska. This, combined with an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska will allow easterly flow into inland areas of Southcentral. This flow will allow for chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Copper River Basin, and the Talkeetna Mountains for the 4th of July. Easterly storm motion may allow some of these showers and thunderstorms to stream into the Susitna Valley. Southwest Alaska will have a large low in the Bering slowly make its way eastward. Heavy rainfall will impact the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula with the mainland coast seeing rain by Saturday. The low will stall out just off the Kuskokwim Delta coast and will continue to send fronts eastward, bringing heavy rain to the Southwest mainland for the rest of the weekend and into Monday. Southcentral will see some ridging build in on Saturday. This will result in a drying and warming trend for the region. The Copper River Basin, Talkeetna Mountains, and the Susitna Valley will retain chances for thunderstorms despite the ridge. This drying trend will not last too long as a front from the low in the Bering will arrive on Saturday. Heavy rainfall is expected first in Kodiak on Saturday afternoon, then at the Southcentral coastline. Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley may receive rainfall from this front as well if it orients correctly. This scenario is uncertain as model agreement is quite poor at this moment. Additional weaker fronts push into the Gulf into Monday with the potential for scattered rainfall. -JAR &&.AVIATION... PANC...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some lower clouds between 3000 and 5000 ft will linger through Cook Inlet this afternoon, but should they move over the Terminal this afternoon they will likely burn off. There`s a chance the MVFR cigs from this morning will rematerialize between 9Z and 15Z but increasing southeasterly flow will allow conditions to dry and cigs to remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Light winds will persist, changing between southerly and westerly. && $$