Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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218
FXUS62 KMLB 200158
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
858 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
(modified prev disc): Stout deep layer high pressure centered
offshore the southeastern seaboard is producing a brisk low-mid
level southeast wind flow, although the XMR evening sounding remains
relatively dry in the mid levels due to subsidence effects from
layered high pressure nearby. Briefly higher moisture is shown
rotating onshore mainly over the southern peninsula overnight. The
models only generate very low precip amounts or a sprinkle along the
south coast. Will carry a small shower chance for around Cape
Canaveral south to the Treasure Coast through Tue AM.

Overnight lows will be more mild due to the onshore flow, mainly mid
60s inland/north coast and around 70 from south Brevard to the
Treasure Coast.  A few spots may have record warm lows for Tue.

On Tue, the GFS shows the early pocket of higher moisture lifting
northwestward and affecting the west side of the peninsula.  The
model only spits out a little precip west of our area late in the
day, so will go with a dry forecast locally. It will continue warm
and be even a little more humid as southeast flow boosts dew points
into the mid-upper 60s. High temperatures will reach the mid 80s
inland and lower 80s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with higher winds at the coastal zones overnight. A
brief broken MVFR ceiling of 2000-2500 ft AGL cannot be ruled out
along the coast as marine stratocu move ashore. Inland areas should
remain VFR with the exception of KLEE where MVFR ceilings are
expected late tonight into early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUE...Quite strong high pressure over the Atlantic with an
axis extending into the southeast U.S. is producing a fresh east-
southeast low level wind flow. Speeds are forecast 10-15 knots
except over the cooler northern shelf waters (10 knots) and over the
Gulf Stream (15-20 knots) where an exercise caution statement will
be necessary. The wave models show 3-4 feet seas nearshore and 4-5
offshore but with a pronounced wind chop (5-6 second wave periods).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record warm minimum temps and year set for February 20, 21, and 22.

   February 20             February 21      February 22

Daytona Beach 66-1961        68-1989          69-2008
Orlando Intl  69-1961        68-1989          69-1945
Sanford       68-1961        66-2002          68-2008
Melbourne     68-1961        70-1989          69-2003
Vero Beach    72-1961        72-1961          73-1961
Ft. Pierce    73-1961        73-1961          73-1961

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP/DWS



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