Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 201600 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED WWA Section
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1100 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018


RAP40 analysis shows a strong high pres ridge over the W Atlc/Deep
South dominating the lcl WX pattern. Anticyclonic flow around the
base of the ridge generating a brisk E/SE flow acrs central FL, as
confirmed by the lcl wind profilers.  Upstream moisture is lacking
with H100-H70 mean RH values AOB 60pct, while mid lvl capping
remains quite strong with H85-H70 lapse rates arnd 5.5C/KM over the
I-4 Corridor decreasing to arnd 2.0C/KM SE of Lake-O.  Mid/upr lvl
analysis reveals H85-H30 omega/vorticity and H30-H20 divergence
fields that are largely flat with little moisture...H85-H50 dewpoint
depressions arnd 20C...H70-H50 btwn 20-25C.

Mild WX pattern will continue this aftn with warm temps and
negligible precip chances. A few sprinkles psbl from brief, low-
topped coastal shras, but no measurable precip expected. Max temps
in the L80s along the coast, M80s interior.


.AVIATION...Thru 21/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 20/18Z...coastal sites E/SE 9-13KTS...interior sites
7-11KTS. Btwn 21/18Z-21/24Z...coastal sites E/SE 10-14KTS with G18-
22KTS...interior sites E/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 21/00Z-21/03Z...coastal
sites bcmg E/SE 8-12KTS...interior sites bcmg E/SE 6-10KTS. Btwn
21/03Z-21/06Z...coastal sites bcmg E/SE 5-9KTS...interior sites bcmg
E/SE 3-6KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Cigs AOA FL120. Aft 21/07Z...N of KISM-KTIX areas
MVFR/lcl IFR vsbys in BR.


Poor boating conditions as a high pres ridge extending from Bermuda
into the Deep South maintains a moderate to fresh E/SE breeze over
the lcl Atlc waters. Lcl data buoy/C-MAN network indicating
sustained winds arnd 15KTS with ocnl gusts near 20KTS. While not
strict criteria for a Small Craft Advisory, short wave pds AOB 6sec
areawide are certainly generating rough conditions, especially south
of Sebastian Inlet with the brisk SE flow placing the Treasure Coast
waters in the shadow of Grand Bahama Island. Will hoist a short term
SCA for the Gulf Stream waters from Brevard County south, cautionary
statements elsewhere.


Record warm minimum temps and the year set:

              Feb 20          Feb 21           Feb 22

Daytona Beach 66-1961        68-1989          69-2008
Orlando Intl  69-1961        68-1989          69-1945
Sanford       68-1961        66-2002          68-2008
Melbourne     68-1961        70-1989          69-2003
Vero Beach    72-1961        72-1961          73-1961
Ft. Pierce    73-1961        73-1961          73-1961


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
     Inlet 20-60 nm.



Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Glitto is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.