Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 201319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
919 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017


Today-Tonight...The pressure pattern continues to be weak with just
a hint of an easterly gradient due to a high pressure ridge to our
north.  Low level moisture is still high with surface dew points in
the lower-mid 70s, but morning soundings at Cape Canaveral and Tampa
had below normal precipitable water, 1.41 and 1.30 inches
respectively.  Morning satellite shows some Atlantic cloud lines
offshore Brevard and Indian River counties, with radar indicating a
few showers.  The HRRR model and local WRF develop additional
showers through the day and shift a band witch scattered coverage
southward across the Treasure Coast and inland to around Lake
Okeechobee. Guidance PoPs were higher than our current forecast of
20 percent, but with overall weak onshore flow and limited deep
moisture, don`t plan on changing things.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions.  There`s a slight chance for
showers with MVFR from KMLB-KSUA.


Today...Long period swells generated by Tropical Storm Jose continue
to slowly diminish across the east central Florida coastal waters.
Buoys 41009 & 41114 were slightly below 5 feet. The pressure pattern
will be rather light due to a weak high pressure ridge over and just
north of the waters. Buoy 41009 has been showing easterly winds 5-10
knots overnight and this morning. Therefore, open ocean conditions
look generally good for boating with small wind waves and 4-5 foot
long period swells. However, getting in/out of inlets should
continue to be hazardous during the outgoing tide from late this
morning through late afternoon.


Minor to moderate flooding along the Saint Johns River near Cocoa,
Geneva, Sanford, Deland and Astor are forecast to change little
through late week. The Saint Johns River above Lake Harney near
Geneva is forecast to remain in major flood stage.





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