Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 261939
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Sunny, Dry and Hot Weather On Tap for the Memorial Day Weekend...

Tonight-Saturday...Surface ridge will remain over the central
peninsula, but sag south a bit into the southern CWA through late
tomorrow afternoon. This will occur as a mid level ridge begins to
build overhead and replace the zonal flow aloft. Local sea breeze
circulation currently press inland will slacken quickly after
sunset, leading to light-calm winds areawide. With the boundary
slightly modifying dew points, expect mins to average about 3-5F
warmer than last night, L-M60s inland, and M-U60s near the coast.

A light S-SW draft will gradually give way to the afternoon sea
breeze circulation. under full sun, max temps will range from near
90F along the coast to about 94-95F inland.

Sunday-Monday...Surface ridge axis south of the area will produce a
low level W/SW flow across the region, which should remain weak
enough for a delayed east coast sea breeze to form. Even with inland
moving sea breezes and late day boundary collisions, ridge aloft and
drier airmass in place will keep rain chances out of the forecast.
Continued dry conditions and mostly sunny skies will combine for a
hot afternoon each day, with highs reaching the mid 90s across the
interior and lower 90s near the east coast. Morning lows will
generally be in the mid/upper 60s Sunday morning and upper 60s to
low 70s Monday morning.

Tuesday-Friday...(Previous) Mid level ridge will extend from south
FL northeast into the Atlc into mid week with light low level winds
Tuesday becoming south to southeast into Wed. GFS indicates enough
low level moistening to continue low rain chances Tue mainly across
the interior in the afternoon with isolated showers and lightning
storms. Late afternoon sea breeze interactions across the interior
will allow for slightly higher afternoon convection chances to 30-40
percent Wed with the lower rain chances along the coast. Highs
should reach the mid 90s again on Tue for the interior and then
lower to mid 90s for Wed inland. GFS has ridge strengthening just
east of the state Thu with somewhat stronger low level SE flow. This
should keep highest shower/thunderstorm chances across the interior
to 30-40 percent. Longer range models show deeper moisture and
southerly flow for late week which should allow afternoon
shower/thunderstorm chances in the 40-50 percent range.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight-Saturday...Late afternoon sea breeze circulation
near the coast will give way to light synoptic flow below 10KT out
of the S-SE overnight. Synoptic wind flow will back more to E-SE at
around 10-12KT again on Saturday as the Atlantic sea breeze once
again develops. Seas 2-3FT tonight, subsiding to 1-2FT on Saturday.

Sunday-Tuesday...Westerly flow in the morning, becomes onshore later
into the afternoon near the coast each day, as the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland. Wind speeds forecast to remain
below 15 knots. Sea conditions will remain very favorable for
boating at 1 to 2 ft early next week.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...No changes to the Fire Weather Watch for Saturday
afternoon. Will let later shifts evaluate this evening`s updated ERC
values before deciding on which FWW counties to include in any RFW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  89  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  69  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  69  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  64  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  65  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  69  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM this evening for Orange-Seminole.

     Fire Weather Watch Saturday from noon until 8 PM For Lake-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
DSS/LONG TERM...Weitlich


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