Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 311720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Made some minor changes to thunderstorm chances this afternoon...
along with temperatures and winds. Cold front at noon extended
from near Atlantic to west of Falls City. Some storms had formed
along the front. Light showers from mid clouds over central
Nebraska should weaken but could possibly get into our western
zones this afternoon or evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An upper level low currently moving east/southeast across eastern
Montana will continue to slide across the Northern Plains today
dragging a trough axis through the Central Plains. At the surface,
low pressure was centered over southeast North Dakota with a
trailing cold front extending south from the low across eastern
South Dakota and into central Nebraska. Scattered showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms continue to weaken as they spread east
across the CWA this morning ahead of the main boundary. Will
continue to carry chances along the cold front as it pushes
eastward through the CWA today and into this evening.

Behind the front/precipitation, surface high pressure will build
into the region and persist through Wednesday. Return flow will
set up on Thursday while a weak shortwave moves through the
Northern Plains. Will continue a small pop in our northern
counties Thursday afternoon to account for this.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Upper level ridging will amplify across the western CONUS while a
shortwave trough moves down the front side of the ridge across the
Northern Plains and toward the Great Lakes region for the start of
the weekend. This will send a cold front into the area Friday
night which will be our next shot at showers and thunderstorms.
Dry conditions expected for the remainder of the weekend.


.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

MVFR ceilings possible at KOMA and KLNK into the early afternoon...
then expect VFR conditions. Best chances for TSRA are east of the
TAF sites. North/northwest winds will decrease this evening.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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