Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281754
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM BOUNCING
FROM VERY WARM TO VERY COLD BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

VERY MILD AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS ALREADY HELPING TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPS AROUND 30. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO WARMING
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...WILL BE SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKER WIND FIELD AND PROXIMITY TO SNOW COVER IN
NORTHWEST IOWA MAY HOLD TEMPS TO THE 40S HERE COMPARED TO 50S
ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH 70 IN SOME PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA.

IT IS THE END OF NOVEMBER HOWEVER AND ARCTIC AIR POISED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK END TO THE WARMTH
BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BRING THE FEEL OF WINTER
BACK TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

SAME STORY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
MONTANA IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
CANADA. WARMER TEMPS RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COLD NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS ROUND WITH CORE OF
COLDEST AIR EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS MORE
ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW BUT MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSE TO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KOFK...KOMA...KLNK THROUGH
29/1800Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 1500 TO 2000 FEET IS
LIKELY AT KOFK AFTER 29/0600Z AND ALSO AT KOMA AFTER 29/1400Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...SMITH



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