Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 242325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb analysis show weak
shortwave ridging overhead this afternoon behind a departing complex
now over Missouri. Southwesterly flow continues with a few
embedded weak shortwaves of interest. The first is over northeast
Colorado with another showing up across western Kansas where a few
lightning strikes have been noted.

Afternoon surface analysis shows area of low pressure over southeast
Colorado with very little in the way pressure differences across all
of Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Boundary layer moisture remains in
place with surface dewpoints fluctuating this afternoon and falling
slightly into the upper 50s across our western counties where
surface winds turned more southwesterly along a weak boundary.

Forecaster uncertainty remains high as a few waves of convection are
forecast to drift through the area as early as this evening. With
the lack of a strong forcing mechanism late this afternoon into this
evening, we continue to question some of the CAM solutions on
developing storms over the area before dark. It seems more likely
that storms that initiate across western Nebraska and parts of
Kansas would spread east/northeast across the forecast area
overnight tonight and continue into Wednesday morning. This being
said, with a primed and unstable airmass in place, cannot rule
anything out and so will continue monitor any convective
developments closely. Thunderstorms that roll through overnight
should continue into Wednesday morning and exit by afternoon.

The cycle continues as several embedded shortwaves drive through
southwesterly flow aloft and interact with several boundaries left
over from previous convection. A stronger synoptic front will
extend northeast from lee cyclone over western Kansas into
southeast Nebraska on Thursday which will be the focus for strong
thunderstorms Thursday and again on Friday. As has been the case
in the past couple days, high moisture content could lead to very
heavy rain in the stronger convection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

By Friday night, a shortwave trough is forecast to extend across
western Nebraska and Kansas and slide northeast into the Missouri
River Valley by 00Z Sunday. Lee surface cyclone will also slide
east/northeast across Kansas Friday through Saturday with an
eastward extending warm front that will continue to be the
primary focus for thunderstorm development.

Shortwave ridging is expected over the area by mid day Sunday with
persistent southwesterly upper level flow into next week. Sunday
looks like our best shot at a dry forecast period with pops entering
into the picture again Sunday night as a series of shortwaves roll
northeast through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Recent trends in visible satellite imagery indicate an agitated
cumulus field from west of KLNK and KBIE to near KAUH. Latest
surface observations indicate generally light winds with the best
low-level convergence nearer to the Platte river. The upshot is
that we are uncertain whether storms will arise from this
convection. The better potential appears to be after 03 or 04z
owing to increased moisture flux and isentropic ascent along the
strengthening low-level jet. As such, TEMPO groups for
thunderstorms have been included beginning at 04z for KLNK, 05z at
KOFK and 06z at KOMA. Thunderstorm activity will likely linger in
the vicinity of all TAF sites overnight. We have maintained
prevailing VFR conditions with MVFR ceilings and visibilities
around the thunderstorms.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead



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