Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 261721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Slow moving mid-level cyclone that we have been dealing with for a
couple of days is moving through eastern MO early this morning per
WV imagery. The central and eastern CWA remain in an area of
deformation around 700 mb though, and has resulted in some light
showers or sprinkles this morning. Short term models indicate this
trend may continue to around 14-15Z this morning and we will
continue to mention this in the northeast CWA. The 07Z objective
surface analysis indicated a ridge axis from western MN into
central KS. Weak flow within this ridge axis will allow for the
low clouds currently in place across the CWA to remain through the
day today. Thus we have lowered highs a bit most areas.

Early morning WV imagery also indicated that the next vigorous
shortwave trough was moving through the 4-corners and into NM/CO.
This is expected to quickly move across the central and southern
Plains today. Although the bulk of the sensible weather associated
with this system will stay to the south of our CWA, weak
isentropic upglide into the southern FA may prove sufficient for
some showers this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise the
clouds will continue to hang tough tonight over the FA. As this
system passes to the east on Monday we may finally get enough flow
to erode the clouds from northwest to southeast across the area,
although confidence is not great. If clouds do clear we may see
temperatures get back to near normals with highs in the mid and
upper 50s.

The next trough will be moving through the Great Basin and
dropping into the southern Rockies during the day on Tuesday. The
bulk of the CWA and day looks to be dry with easterly low to mid
level flow keep some dry air feed and holding of precipitation for
most of the day, but there remains some chance in the far west of
some showers toward the end of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Although there have been some changes in the models solutions over
the last 24 hours with the GFS and the EC starting to trend toward
a consensus, both global models still have significant
differences for the mid to late week system. The EC/GEM continues
to be a wetter and cooler pattern while the GFS now indicates some
precipitation, it still takes the bulk of the system to the south
of our FA. Confidence though is growing that rain is likely at
some point during the WED/THU time frame. Forecaster confidence
remains low though on amounts, duration, and exact placement. We
will continue with high chance to likely pops in the WED/THU time
frame though. In addition it appears that with the clouds and at
least some light rain we will see below normal temperatures and we
have lowered highs closer to the operational EC during this time
as well.

The active pattern continues after the mid week system though with
another trough expected next weekend with a chance of rain and
continued cool temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Mesoanalysis at 17z depicts surface lows over the northern TX
panhandle and northwest IL with the forecast area in light north
to northwest winds. Moisture wrapping around the IL cyclone is
resulting in continued IFR ceilings which should gradually lift to
MVFR (FL010-012) as the boundary layer deepens this afternoon. A
weak inverted trough noted from KBIE-KOFK-KONL has been the focus
for lingering fog, and visibilities in these locations should
improve over the next couple of hours.

The northeastward advance of the southern Plains cyclone will
maintain a moist low-level air mass in place across the region
with MVFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
AVIATION...Mead



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