Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KOAX 161746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1246 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Update to aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Two areas of ongoing convection this morning over central and
parts of eastern Nebraska. Convection over central Nebraska is
associated with a surface cold front and mid level trough from the
central Dakotas into northwest Kansas, while eastern Nebraska
convection associated with warm advection and overrunning of an
outflow boundary across southern Nebraska. IR satellite loops
show the colder cloud tops and stronger convection ahead of the
surface front and upper trough while cloud tops have in general been
warming across eastern Nebraska with isolated colder tops
developing now and then.

General trend will be for the surface front and upper trough to
move east today and tonight with rain chances increases for the
forecast area. Heavier rainfall is expected to focus more across
eastern and southern parts of the forecast area today as the
system moves through with less widespread heavy rainfall rates
for areas that received the heavy rain yesterday. Will cancel
flash flood watch currently in effect for northern parts of the
area a bit early, prior to this forecast issuance. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms may linger through this evening but
stronger forcing is expected to be east of the area with front
pushing into western Iowa by early this evening and showers ending
after midnight. Dry weather follows behind this system on
Thursday but another chance of rain enters the picture by late
Thursday night and Friday as another upper trough swings through
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

First part of the period looks to be dry through Saturday before
some chance for more intermittent showers and storms return
Saturday night through Tuesday, although models differ on
solutions. Main concern will be for Monday the day of the
eclipse. No model consensus for that period at this time but some
potential for showers and thunderstorms and clouds of course as both
the GFS and EURO show a surface frontal boundary approaching the
area from the northern plains during the day.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

An area of MVFR ceilings will persist over northeast Nebraska
including OFK with scattered to broken MVFR level clouds
potentially impacting OMA/LNK for a few hours this afternoon. Have
included a tempo group for the most likely time period. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions with winds turning out of the northwest and
persistently in the 10 kt range. There is a small chance for MVFR
cigs to build back into OFK late tonight but for now have kept a
VFR forecast.

For eclipse-area airports: Expect winds to turn out of the
northwest by mid afternoon. VFR conditions will be predominant but
may see 1-4 hours of bkn MVFR cigs this afternoon.




LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.