008
FXUS61 KBUF 281508
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1108 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool today with widespread showers this afternoon and a
chance of a thunderstorm. Showers decrease in coverage beginning
tonight through Wednesday, with dry weather returning Thursday into
the weekend. We can also expect a day to day warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Just a spattering of showers across the eastern Great Lakes as
of right now (15Z). That will change...a robust shortwave
rotating through the base of a longwave trough will crosses our
forecast area bringing widespread showers this afternoon.
Elevated CAPE of 100-200 j/kg could even allow for a
thunderstorm or two.

Cooler today too...with H850T`s around +6 to +7 this will support
highs only in the 60s.

The shortwave responsible for the showers will exit tonight. With
dwindling support shower activity will wind down. We will remain
overcast though with temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s.

While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our
region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic
flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold
front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the
only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western
Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to
the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high
temperatures will once again only in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Behind a cold front, a cooler airmass will settle over our region,
accompanied by surface high pressure slowly building in from the
west. Light northerly flow ahead of this surface high, combined with
mostly clear skies for the nights of Wednesday through Friday will
produce overnight lows in the 40s. Would not be surprised to see a
sub 40 reading in one of the coldest valleys of the inland Southern
Tier or east of Lake Ontario. Closer to the mild Great Lakes
overnight lows will not be as chilly.

While surface high pressure will be building in at the surface, a
mid level trough will drop across the region from Canada on
Thursday. Dry air will make any shower formation tough, with perhaps
an isolated shower east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure starting over our region the first day of June
will bring light winds, and a sunny, but cool start to the day. The
next mid level trough will reach our region Saturday night and
Sunday. Moisture is not impressive with this feature, and will carry
just slight chance to low chance PoPs for a shower or thunderstorm.
Brief ridging behind this feature may keep Monday dry before yet
another trough bears down upon the region later Monday and Tuesday.
Behind the surface high temperatures will return back to above
normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wealth of low level moisture circulating around a deep storm over
Quebec will bring a mixture of low end VFR to MVFR CIGS. There will
also be some IFR with the heavier showers...and even an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon.

Tonight...northerly flow will produce a mixture of MVFR to IFR CIGS.
There will also be some shower but coverage should decrease as we
progress through the night.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR  with a chance of showers.
Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh southwesterlies will continue to support small
craft advisories today for all of the nearshore waters.

A weakening pressure gradient will then produce moderate north to
northwest breezes tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mesonet obs at Woodgate confirm radar estimates with around 4
inches of rain measured Monday from a couple rounds of storms.
This is just south of our forecast area, but it is in the Black
River basin and will flow to the Boonville gauge. Basin averages
are less than that, but coordinated with the NERFC and expect a
basin average of around 3 inches to push the Boonville gauge to
above action stage today.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ005-006.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel