Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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708 FXUS63 KJKL 040120 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 920 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a relative lull in precipitation lasting into Tuesday morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will increase at mid week. - Somewhat cooler and drier weather will arrive behind a cold front which will pass on Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024 00Z shows weak high pressure just to the east of the state and this is helping to keep skies mostly clear and most of the convection outside of our area, along with light winds. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 70s to lower 80s most places but already in the upper 60s and lower 70s for a couple deeper eastern valleys. Meanwhile, dewpoints have come down a bit to the low and mid 60s. Have updated the forecast to lower PoPs through the night and taking out most of the thunder per the latest CAMs` guidance. Did also add in the current obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky as well as fine tuning the river valley fog in the wx grids - expecting a few places to become locally dense towards dawn. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 401 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms are going on across eastern KY and in neighboring CWAs with daytime heating/mixing. Given the lack of forcing and shear, don`t expect these to have much impact, just a quick pulse up and back down again. These should quickly dissipate in the evening as we lose daytime heating/mixing. From this point forward, the forecast gets a bit more complicated. We should stay dry through much of the night tonight, but clouds will be increasing from the west. Flow will become more southerly as the upper level ridge and surface high pressure exit to our east. An upper level shortwave will move into the region by the afternoon, quickly enhancing pop coverage across KY and points to our S and W. CAMs show pops starting in our SW and then progressing eastward into the CWA as we get more into the peak heating of the day. With the increased Srly flow, temperatures will modify a bit warmer by tomorrow afternoon, with highs in the mid 80s. These storms will dissipate again in the evening. However, it appears as though the next system to impact the CWA will be right on it`s heels. We will be lucky if we even get a few hour break in some locations. By 0Z Wednesday, heights will continue decreasing, as an upper level and surface low move across Southern Canada. From this surface system, a cold front will descend southward through the Upper Great Lakes, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and eventually into the Southern Plains. This front will slowly shift eastward, finally reaching western KY by 0Z Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will have developed along the front and will have raced ahead of it, especially where the better warm air/moisture/instability is - beginning to impact eastern KY after midnight Wednesday, and continuing to increase into Wednesday morning as we transition to the extended period of the forecast. Did keep with some valley fog for overnight tonight, along with a minor ridge/valley temperature difference. Any lingering clouds could impact the diurnal curve, but incoming clouds in the SW during the second half of the overnight could also prevent these locations from seeing temperatures drop quite as low. Didn`t include fog or as much of a ridge/valley temperature difference for Tuesday night, as clouds will continue to increase with precip possibly ongoing at times. Lows both nights should generally be in the 60s, with the cooler night being tonight (less clouds, light wind, less moisture), and a few degrees warmer for Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 337 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024 The extended is still expected to start off quite active, as a strong weather system moves through the region Wednesday through Thursday. The pattern aloft remains similar to previous model runs, with a trough of low pressure still progged to move onshore in southwestern Canada early Wednesday, with now slightly more pronounced ridging in place along the west coast of the CONUS. Further east, a strong trough aloft, with a cold front trailing southward from it, will be pushing through the Great Lakes and into New England through the end of the week. The trough will be slow to move through, as it intensifies and slows down on its eastward trek. The front trailing from this system will bring widespread showers and storms to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night as it moves pushes eastward through the region. The parent trough will become our primary weather maker the rest of the week, as it moves slowly through the Great Lakes and into New England. The models continue to agree that this system will be in place over the eastern third of the CONUS heading into the weekend. A shortwave trough will then push southward out of the Great Lakes region on Sunday, on the backside of the departing original upper trough, and will allow for scattered showers and storms to finish out the weekend and into next week. There will be a brief respite from the rain Thursday night and Friday, as we will be between systems, although a few showers and storms cannot be ruled out in our eastern counties as we get brushed by the backside of a large departing trough. The highest rain chances we see in the extended will be Wednesday through Thursday, during the passage of a cold front. After that, we will see several rounds of isolated to scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as subsequent troughs aloft traverse the region. Temperatures should be near normal each day, with a few day at or slightly above normal, and others at or slightly below normal. The cooler days will Friday and Saturday, after the first large trough moves through. There is still a marginal(5%) chance for excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding Wednesday through Thursday. The good news is that the likelihood of heavy rain and flooding is still not increasing as we approach the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are on tap through the period, along with light winds. Valley fog is also expect to develop late tonight, but should primarily impact the valleys. Did include a TEMPO for scattered low IFR decks and VIS as the fog sets in and begins to lift Tuesday morning. Then, VFR conditions return and remains in place through the end of the forecast period. Mid and high clouds will begin moving into the TAF sites during the day, Tuesday, ahead of any rain chances. The better chances hold off until closer to 00Z and beyond, so did not include in most TAFs at this time - aside from the KSME terminal with a VCSH after 18Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CMC/GREIF