174
FXUS64 KOUN 262022
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
322 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

We`ll have a dry quiet weather pattern through the short term
becoming active on Monday night.  A Pacific cold front stalled
across western Oklahoma is expected to start pushing across the rest
of our area as the upper trough digs through.  High surface pressure
builds in with clear skies tonight as northerly winds go light and
variable while drier air will result in a less humid and cooler
night.  Our upper flow shifts northwest on Monday as a ridge builds
over the Western U.S. which could introduce some wetter weather
starting in the long term.  It will still be hot on Monday under
sunny skies with highs in the 90s areawide although much less humid
as southeast winds gradually increase.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Southeast winds will also bring a return of low-level gulf moisture
& potential convective instability by late Monday across northern
Texas and eventually through much of Oklahoma on Tuesday.  The
increasing moisture combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will
result in strong to extreme surface based instability over northern
Texas and adjacent far southwest Oklahoma by late Monday.  Diurnal
heating should weaken the cap while a strengthening low-level jet
after sundown may be sufficient to break the cap resulting in
convective initiation late Monday evening into the overnight hours.
The strongly (mostly in our CWA) unstable and sheared environment
may be sufficient for isolated severe storms producing large hail
and damaging wind gusts in the risked area of our southwestern CWA
for Monday night.

The increasing moisture transport on Tuesday will be reforming a
dryline that should linger lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies
through the long term keeping our area in a moist unstable
environment. Isentropic fields still showing ascent from warm
advection starting Tuesday while at least the NAM expels the first
of several mid-level shortwaves that will be coming through next
week.  As a result of the warm advection with a possible shortwave,
Tuesday will be our first day with widespread rain/storm POPs and
this trend will continue into the weekend.  Northwest flow aloft
will persist through Thursday as a weak upper ridge gradually builds
in. Models are consistent with MCS activity tracking down the
Central/Southern High Plains each evening through overnight hours
starting Tuesday through Thursday as a series of shortwaves are
expelled downstream from the ridge.  Much of this nighttime MCS
activity will be elevated although cannot rule out some of this
convection becoming severe at times.  As southeast winds make a
return on Monday, increasing southeast low-level jet flow at 850 mb
and a strong west-northwest upper jet will increase the deep-layer
shear late Tuesday with up to moderate MUCAPE values (2000 J/kg)
could result in some strong to severe elevated convection with
Tuesday nights MCS. Although weaker in some areas, shear may be
stronger in other areas for the next two nights and combined with
low-end moderate elevated instability could not rule out MCS
convection becoming strong to severe for the remaining two nights in
some areas.  The aforementioned cold front which came through in the
short term period is expected to linger and stall out at times
across central and southern Texas through much of this week, but may
lift back into our area on Friday as a warm front becoming another
forcing mechanism for rain/storms.  We`ll start see temperatures
cooling back to more seasonably average in the long term due to
increasing cloud cover and rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Short period of MVFR ceilings possible at PNC to begin the
forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions expected. Gusty west/northwest
winds expected this afternoon with light north/northeast winds or
light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  90  64  81 /   0   0  20  40
Hobart OK         61  93  65  85 /   0   0  20  50
Wichita Falls TX  64  93  67  86 /   0   0  20  50
Gage OK           55  92  60  84 /   0   0  20  40
Ponca City OK     59  87  61  82 /   0  10  10  20
Durant OK         65  92  66  85 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30