409
FXUS63 KICT 301738
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1238 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More widespread storm chances today and Friday. Strong to
marginally severe storms are possible.

- Periodic rain low rain chances Saturday night through Tuesday
night.

- Near to slightly below average temperatures for today and Friday,
then a gradual warming trend starts this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Today... A large cluster of thunderstorms is currently impacting
portions of western Kansas, and is gradually moving eastward early
this morning. A more organized MCS appears to be developing within
this larger cluster of storms closer to the KS/CO state line with
another loose concentration of storms is developing further east in
the central/south-central Kansas vicinity. It appears there may be
some kind of MCV somewhere in this activity along with a relatively
decent LLJ is providing enough forcing to sustain these storms as
they slowly progress eastward (despite copious amounts of
inhibition). The environment is a bit more hostile further east, so
any strong or marginally severe storms should weaken prior to
getting into the forecast area. Still though, widespread showers and
storms appear at least somewhat likely, especially along and west of
I-135 through the morning hours. Unfortunately, details become a bit
fuzzier this afternoon. After this morning`s storms, coverage could
be a bit spotty for much of the day. Meanwhile, more robust and
widespread convection should develop across the High Plains and
start progressing eastward. There will be some questions regarding
instability across the region, especially north of US-54, so storms
moving off of the High Plains may be primarily focused across
southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma this evening through the
overnight hours. In general, most storms will be limited by weak
shear, but a strong to marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out,
especially this afternoon through the early nighttime hours. The
main concerns are 50 to 60 mph winds and perhaps up to dime sized
hail with stronger storms.

Friday through the beginning of next week... Left over activity may
continue to fester across the area Friday morning, and additional
development may be possible in the afternoon primarily along and
east of the Kansas. Storm chances will diminish from west to east
Friday night into early Saturday. In general, chances of storms have
decreased a bit during the day on Saturday, but periodic low storm
chances should resume Saturday night and last through Tuesday night.
A warming trend is still anticipated to commence this weekend.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to return to the mid to upper
80s, which is around average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A tricky TAF period is expected over the next 24 hours with
widely scattered showers/storms expected. At this point, the
majority of SHRA/TSRA has moved east of I-135 and will impact
CNU by 20Z into the early evening hours. The next window with
the best precipitation chances arrives after 06Z across central
KS and towards dawn in eastern KS. Confidence remains low with
coverage of any showers/storms, therefore have deferred to a
PROB30 group at all sites for now. Later outlooks will need to
reevaluate if prevailing SHRA or TSRA are needed. Otherwise,
wind speeds will remain in the 8-14 kt range from the south to
southeast.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BMB/AMH