Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 171158
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Easterly winds have transported smoke from prescribed burning across
the Flint Hills into much of south central and central KS tonight
with visibilities in the 5-8 mile range at times. As winds slowly
veer to a more favorable southeast trajectory, smoke should be
steered away from much of south central KS.

A shortwave trough over the Northern Intermountain region this
morning is progged to race eastward across the Northern Plains late
today. Meanwhile at the surface, a trough of low pressure will
deepen across the Central High Plains. This will result in strong
winds developing but the corridor of highest wind speeds are
expected to remain west of our forecast area through the day today.
As the sfc trough races eastward tonight, gusty northwest winds will
overspread the area possibly reaching advisory criteria (30+ mph).

Strong northwest winds will linger into at least the first half of
Wed before subsiding. A wind advisory may be issued for Wed if
current progs continue. When looking at point soundings and the
depth of mixing on Wed average pbl dewpoints will likely fall into
the low and mid 20s and values were trended down accordingly.

A ridge of high pressure will translate south across the area on
Thursday bringing light winds, dry weather and seasonable
temperatures to the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

The next storm system is progged to impact the area late Fri and
into Sat and Sat night. The ECMWF, CMC and GEFS ensembles continue
to show a tight clustering although some of the deterministic
runs have trended further south. Big changes were not made at this
time from the previous forecast with the highest confidence in
more widespread wetting rain during the day on Sat. With clouds
and anticipated precipitation, temperatures are expected to remain
below normal through much of the period. Temperatures will begin
to moderate early in the week with rising height/increasing
thickness as a mid/upper ridge translates emerges from the
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

The primary focus is wind-related. Winds that`ll be easterly ~13kts
for most of the day should slowly shift toward the SE & gradually
increase, first across Srn KS (~18Z) then across C KS this
afternoon. There`ll be areas of MVFR vsbys (FU) for much of the
day but have limited the mention to KRSL where it`s already in
progress. Attention turns toward a powerful cold front that`ll
surge across C KS this eve then across SC KS tonight. Winds would
obviously shift toward the NW but increase considerably. Sustained
speeds ~25kts with ~35kt gusts are likely across C & SC KS while
in SE KS the front should arrive toward 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

A very high grassland fire danger is expected this afternoon for
locations along and west of a line from near Sedan to Russell. A
cold front will move across the area tonight shifting winds to the
northwest. As dewpoint temperatures fall into the mid 20s on Wed
afternoon, a very high grassland fire danger will develop across
all of the area. There is some concern that dewpoint temperatures
could fall even lower which may result in extreme grassland fire
danger across portions of the area on Wednesday afternoon.

With increasing chances for precipitation as we move into the
weekend, fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  47  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      78  45  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          77  44  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        78  46  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   82  48  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         76  41  64  33 /   0  10   0   0
Great Bend      78  42  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          76  43  64  34 /   0  10   0   0
McPherson       77  44  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     77  50  68  39 /   0  10   0   0
Chanute         77  48  65  37 /   0  10   0   0
Iola            76  48  63  36 /   0  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    76  50  66  38 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...MWM


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