Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 160800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
300 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A strong low pressure system will be moving through the northwest
portions of the State today. The attendant pressure gradient is
very tight creating some rather strong low level winds. These
winds are expected to mix down to the surface which will make for
a very windy day today, especially along and west of I-35. Some
blowing dust is also possible this afternoon and ground conditions
remain extremely dry. This set up will allow temperatures to be
above normal for most of the CWA today. The only exception will be
along the I-70 corridor where temperatures are expected to be a
little closer to normal. Normally, a frontal system like the one
moving through the region today would bring some moisture to the
region. Unfortunately, the only area that looks to have any chance
for rain today will be the far eastern areas of Kansas today. The
winds will die down around sunset this evening as the pressure
gradient begins to slacken.

By Saturday, the cold front will be moving through and will kick
the flow around to the north. This will bring temperatures back
down closer to normal for this time of year. This northerly flow
will not last very long as the winds are expected to shift back
around to the south. This will allow for some moisture transport
to take place over the region ahead of the next system.
Unfortunately, the Gulf of Mexico will be closed off for most of
Sunday and Monday which will prevent any significant Gulf moisture
from getting into the region. There does appear to be enough
forcing with this next system to allow for some good chances for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and into Monday morning.
Some areas could see some of the best rain so far this year. The
only fly in the ointment at this time is the fact the Gulf of
Mexico is shut off from Saturday on which would normally make it
very difficult for the needed moisture to get into the region. So
confidence is not great for the rain event for Sunday night and

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Temperatures will cool down again Tuesday behind the front and
will be much closer to normal for the most part. Winds will kick
back around to the south by Wednesday and will allow WAA to take
hold over the region once again. Temperatures are expected to rise
above normal for the rest of the week. Rain chances for the end of
next week look minimal at best.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Wind shear is the initial concern for the 00Z TAF period,
particularly at eastern airports. Vertical wind profiles continue
to indicate elevated wind speeds above the surface while speeds
at the surface have begun to very slowly decline and will
continue to do so over the next few hours before picking back up
again after sunrise. In addition, a marginal chance for a
thunderstorm or two is possible in southeast Kansas (near KCNU)
early Friday morning followed by MVFR cigs throughout the rest of
the morning. VFR conditions should return to KCNU around noon on
Friday. Strong westerly/southwesterly winds are forecast to
impact all locations beginning in the late morning and lasting
through early evening. Sustained speeds of near 30kts with gusts
approaching the 40kt range are possible. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions through the remainder of the day.


Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The continued very dry conditions and the high winds today, will
bring many areas of the CWA into the catastrophic category. The
catastrophic category is expected to prevalent along large areas
of the CWA along and west of I-35 between I-70 and US-160 and
including Greenwood, Elk and Chautauqua counties. The remaining
areas of the CWA will be in the extreme category. The highest
winds are expected between 11AM to 7PM today.


Wichita-KICT    74  36  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      70  33  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          71  34  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        74  37  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  37  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         63  30  62  37 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      64  30  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          69  33  60  37 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       69  33  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     77  40  64  40 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         75  39  61  39 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            74  38  60  38 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    75  39  63  40 /  10   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for



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