762
FXUS63 KLBF 262332
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening pose
  an isolated threat of large hail and wind damage. The area of
  concern is generally across northwest Nebraska west of highway
  83.

- Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday through Friday and the
  potential for severe weather is under review the SPC.

- Marginal Excessive Rainfall Risk...some storms Wednesday and
  Thursday may produce locally heavy rainfall which could
  produce flooding in some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are developing across
swrn SD this afternoon. The RAP model suggests these and other
potentially strong or severe storms will develop across nwrn
Nebraska this afternoon. Upscale growth is predicted by the RAP
model. Storm activity will move southeast through wrn and ncntl
Nebraska this afternoon and this evening before exiting the
region around 04z tonight.

Storms will be operating in and environment of steep lapse rates, 20-
30kt winds at h500-300mb, limited moisture and MLCAPE. Stronger
winds aloft and an upper level disturbance are operating across nwrn
Nebraska and this could certainly be influencing the downstream
environment.

POPs this afternoon and this evening use the short term model blend
plus the HRRR and RAP models. A 50 percent coverage limiter is in
place as a hedge against the more aggressive upscale growth the HRRR
model shows. The reason for this is simply, the CAMs over-forecast
storm coverage Saturday night. The RAP model forecast was more
conservative Saturday.

There are no rain chances Monday or Monday night. The storm system
operating over the Midwest will lift through the Great Lakes and
send a back door cold front into Nebraska. The models are in good
agreement building heights across the cntl Rockies in response to a
developing upper level trof across the West Coast. As suggested by
the HREF, this should present a stable environment across wrn/ncntl
Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The upper level low off the coast of British Columbia will move
inland initiating high latitude cyclogenesis across Alberta by
Wednesday. Deep moisture return will develop across the Great
Plains; initially across the high Plains, but spreading east
toward the Missouri Basin by Friday. Chance to likely POPs are
in place Wednesday through Friday with the best rain chances
across the high Plains Wednesday and spreading east Thursday and
Friday. There is a chance a front will have dropped through
wrn/ncntl Nebraska Friday closing off the warm sector. Severe
weather appears possible Wednesday and Thursday, and Friday also
depending on the progress of the front.

The storm environment across wrn/ncntl Nebraska will feature modest
winds aloft, WSW25-35 kts at h500-300mb, but low level winds, S20-30
kts at h850-700mb result in effective shear of 40 to 50 kts. WPC
suggested a marginal Day 4-5 ERO for Wednesday and Thursday which is
consistent with the fairly strong h850-700mb moisture transport in
the GFS and ECM. SPC is monitoring the severe weather potential for
this system.

There are no other significant rain chances in the extended forecast
but it`s important to remember strong daytime heating, a projected
warm front Tuesday and residual instability next weekend could
set off isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms in some
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A couple aviation weather concerns exist through the forecast
period, mainly scattered thunderstorms this evening and blustery
winds tomorrow. The bulk of the storm coverage this evening will
be from VTN to LBF and terminals east, then tapering after
sunset. Northwest winds strengthen around sunrise tomorrow with
gusts to 20 kts in the south (LBF) and 30 kts north (VTN).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively