Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 140821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

H5 analysis tonight had a tandem of upper level lows
extending from northwestern PA into the Canadian Maritimes. Further
west, a high amplitude ridge of high pressure extended from the
intermountain west into southeastern Alaska. West of the ridge, a
trough of low pressure and closed low extended from the Gulf of
Alaska south to off the coast of northern California. At the
surface, high pressure was located over southeastern Kansas and
eastern Oklahoma. Light southwesterly winds were present across
western and north central Nebraska and 3 AM CDT temperatures were in
the lower to middle 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Upper ridge axis to build across the forecast area today providing
for increasing subsidence and warmer than average temperatures. Will
continue to trend afternoon high temperatures toward the warmer end
of guidance as a southwesterly downsloping wind is shown through
much of the day.  The latest forecast suggests widespread 60s
across the forecast area with a few 70 degree readings possible over
our far southwest.  The ridge will undergo a breakdown overnight as
a trough of low pressure digs into the Great Basin.  A lee surface
trough develops late today with high pressure to our northeast. This
will favor light easterly up sloping wind, which will recycle
slightly cooler air back across the forecast area.  Lows tonight
will fall mainly in the 30s.  Will have to watch the depth and
quality of moisture return with the easterly flow as some guidance
hints at some fog toward dawn.  IF this occurs, most likely the fog
will be across the Sandhills and north, though it should be noted
that enough mid-upper level clouds streaming in advance of the Great
Basin trough should help hinder any development.  Otherwise the
warmer than average temperatures today will promote low relative
humidity across much of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

hursday through Friday Night...The first in a tandem
of upper level systems will begin to enter the Central Plains
Thursday night. This system will intensify across Nebraska late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Strong mid level frontogenesis
will develop on the northern flank of the H7 low Thursday night.
Efficient lift will lead to the quick development of precipitation
Thursday night, persisting into Friday. As was the case last night,
the latest NAM12 and GFS solutions are indicating a decent freezing
rain setup followed by a changeover to snow across northern
Nebraska. NAM12 bufkit soundings are most favorable for freezing
rain along a corridor from Sheridan county east to Holt county. This
corridor of freezing rain is farther north, along the SD/Nebr border
with the GFS soln and bufkit soundings. The Canadian is even farther
north with the H5 low favoring southern South Dakota. Given the
uncertainties in the track of the upper level low, the degree of
freezing rain threat and amount of snow accumulations after the
change over, will hoist a winter storm watch for the northwestern
forecast area from midnight CDT Thursday night through midnight CDT
Friday night.

Long range...Saturday through Tuesday...Another upper level system
will possibly take aim at western and north central Nebraska Sunday
night into Monday with accumulating snows possible across the
forecast area. Model agreement and forecast confidence is low with
this system ATTM. The latest ECMWF lifts a closed H5 low across
Kansas Sunday night with this feature taking on a negative tilt into
Monday morning. This soln would favor a decent amount of
precipitation across the forecast area. However, the latest GFS
solution is 700 miles farther north with the low, lifting it into
western North Dakota which would favor a drier forecast. Given the
uncertainties, will not be making any large scale changes to the
inherited forecast and leave in a mention of snow for Sunday night
into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Visual flight rules expected through the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies and light and variable winds under 10kts.


Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
evening for NEZ004-005-094.



LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Power is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.