Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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972 FXUS63 KPAH 151930 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to stream northwest across southeast Missouri tonight and into Monday. Some places could receive another half inch of rain. - Warm and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week and even into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along the northwest periphery of the region and are moving northwest. They should exit the region in the next hour or two, leaving just some showers streaming over far western portions of southeast Missouri. There is a signal in the guidance for another round of convection to lift northwest across the Missouri Bootheel and through the Mark Twain National Forest in the mid to late evening. This could produce some modestly gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and lightning. Overnight and through Monday, any showers or storms will be limited to Carter and Ripley counties in Missouri. Once again a brief heavy downpour and lightning would be the primary concerns if any storms develop Monday. Another quarter to half inch of rainfall will be possible over southeast Missouri. The upper ridge is already attempting to build southwest across the Quad State and should make its presence felt throughout the region Monday. With persistent surface high pressure in control, dry and warm conditions are expected through the work week and likely through next weekend. The upper ridge may get pinched enough by the weekend to allow for a few showers along the northwest periphery of the region. There are some slight chance PoPs in the forecast there, but QPF is nil. Tuesday and Tuesday night will see the coolest conditions with mid 80s for highs and mid to upper 50s for lows. Unfortunately, that is still at or a bit above normal. Readings will trend a few degrees warmer through the week, but with the surface ridge still in control, no major increase in humidity is expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The TAFs are VFR. The main concern will be scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA development this afternoon and evening near KPAH and KCGI. TSRA probs are too low to mention. There is some fog signal overnight mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Once again mid-level clouds are likely to hang out over most of the region overnight, so will leave fog out of the forecast. KMVN has the best chance to see any fog tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS