572
FXUS65 KPUB 190928
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds, albeit slowly weakening, will continue over the region,
  especially over the Palmer Divide (N El Paso county) and the
  far eastern plains.

- Snow should pretty much come to an end prior to sunrise.

- Fire danger increases again across the plains/srn
  mountains/San Luis Valley on Thursday as south winds return
  and air mass dries out.

- Breezy and mild from Friday through the weekend, with
  occasional mountain snow showers.

- Upper ridge builds early next week, with warm and dry weather
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Currently...

at 2 AM radar was showing precip decreasing significantly  over
the region. Only echoes of significance were over the CO/KS
border and over a narrow band banked up against the mtns over
the Monument hill region.

As for winds, they were still strong over the area, but these too
were showing a gradual weakening trend. The strongest winds were
still over the far eastern plains. Winds were still exceeding
high wind criteria over the CO counties adjacent to KS.

Web cams on top of Monument Hill were showing SLOWLY improving
conditions as traffic appears to be moving in the monument region
and the roadways appear passable. Visibility, albeit still low, has
slowly improved. The Monument weather station, KMNH, still
showed winds gusting to blizzard criteria.

This morning...

Per coordination with NWS BOU, will allow the blizzard warning to
expire at 3 am. Winds will still be high (and will keep the high
wind warning in effect), but the heavier snow will likely come to
end per high rez guidance. Without saying, blowing snow will
continue to be an issue over the Palmer Divide region through this
morning.

As for the other weather hilites, it appears that winds will be
rather strong most of this AM and into early afternoon, but
believe we will likely not hit high wind criteria over most of
the plains towards sunrise. Areas which will likely have a risk
of continuing to hit high wind criteria will be the counties
adjacent to the KS border and the northeast sections of Northern
El Paso county. Will continue to monitor and make adjustments
to the hilites as needed.

By this afternoon, we should start ot see the sun especially areas
on the plains closer to the higher terrain, although far
eastern plains and mtns will see clouds linger. Snow showers
will likely linger over the mtns through the day.

Temps today will be cool with 40s most of plains and valleys.
However with the gusty northwest winds, it will feel much cooler
than it actually is.

Tonight it will clear out all areas and it will be cold. temps
tonight will fall into the 10s to L20s across the plains with
single digits in the valleys, and temps below zero over the
mtns. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Main concern Thursday will be a return to critical fire weather
conditions, as mid level flow goes back to w-sw ahead of upper
wave digging through the Rockies, while lee surface low/trough
deepens on the plains. By late Thursday afternoon, 7h winds
increase to 40 kts south of Highway 50, and with deep mixing and
strong surface gradient along the eastern mountains and over
the far sern plains, gusts 25-40 kts look likely, especially
late afternoon/early evening. Air mass looks very dry, with
widespread single digit RH forecast, so have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for the San Luis Valley, the srn Sangres/Wets,
I-25 corridor from Colorado Springs southward, and the sern
plains, south of the Arkansas River. Held off on the lower Ark
Valley for now, as winds may end up fairly light under the
surface low. As wave passes to the north Thu night areas along
the Continental Divide, will see snow showers develop,
continuing into Fri, though accums look light and limited mainly
to the central mountains. Cool and breezy at most lower
elevations Fri, though RH edges up enough to keep fire danger
from becoming too widespread.

W-NW flow aloft remains across the region through the weekend,
with another quick moving wave bringing a round of snow showers
back to mainly the central mountains Sat, though again accums
look light. Critical fire weather conditions look spotty both
Sat and Sun, as winds and RH both remain marginal. Expect a
slight upward bump in temps Sat, followed by a modest cool down.
Sunday. Upper level ridge builds next week, with warmer/dry
conditions forecast, though winds look light enough through
mid-week to keep fire danger fairly low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

KCOS...MVFR conditions for the next few hours, and becoming VFR
around 13-14Z. VFR conditions should continue for the rest of the
TAF period. Strong northerly winds between 35-45kts will continue
through the overnight hours. Winds are expected to diminish through
the afternoon.

KPUB... will also see the strong winds continue through the
overnight hours, with the gusty north winds diminishing in the early
afternoon. VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period.

KALS... will continue to see light northwest winds for at least
a short while, and then pick back up in the early morning. Winds
could gust to 15-25kt and will begin to diminish late in the
afternoon/evening timeframe. VFR conditions expected to prevail
throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for
COZ058-060-066-068-094>099.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ222-224-225-227>230-233-237.
High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for COZ084>086-089-
093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH/PETERSEN/RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CLOUSE