622
FXUS63 KDDC 240800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds behind a cold front will gradually subside
  daytime Friday.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon
  along and east of US-283, with all severe hazards possible.

- More widespread precipitation chances exist middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

KDDC radar observations early Friday morning show a cold front
moving through the far southeast zones, with strong northerly
winds sustained in the 30-40 mph range gusting to 50 mph within
the post-frontal zone. These strong winds will not last long,
beginning to weaken around sunrise as surface high pressure
edges its way into the central plains, and reaching 10-15 mph by
late morning/early afternoon. The remainder of the day Friday
will be quite pleasant, with clear skies, a cool north breeze,
and afternoon highs in the mid 70s north to low 80s south.

Overnight Friday into Saturday morning, the subtropical jet wave
train reloads once again as an upper level trough digs its way
into the western CONUS by 12Z Saturday. As this wave begins to
eject onto the High Plains during the day, lee cyclogenesis in
eastern CO will quickly reestablish moist southerly flow across
the southern to central plains ahead of a dryline that will
sharpen and mix east to near US-283 by mid-afternoon. A modest
cap will be in place (+9-11C at 700-mb), however DCVA ahead of
the ejecting trough should provide sufficient forcing to support
at least isolated thunderstorms along the dryline. Richer
boundary layer moisture will likely remain displaced to our
southeast over OK, but upper 50s dewpoints, and perhaps some low
60s in our far east zones, will combine with afternoon
temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s to foster around 1000 J/Kg
of CAPE amidst 50-60 kts of bulk shear. These factors will
support a supercellular storm mode, with large hail the primary
severe hazard. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially
given the impressive low-level curvature in forecast hodographs,
but this will only exist across the far east/southeast zones
where the richer moisture will reside.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Saturday night, medium range ensembles agree a cold front will
move through southwest KS as the surface low follows the
ejecting upper level low into the Ozarks/Midwest. It`s possible
showers/thunderstorms along this boundary will skim areas from
Wakeeney to Medicine Lodge, but NBM probability of QPF > 0.01"
in the 20-40% range across those areas indicate this scenario is
unlikely. Otherwise, northwesterly winds behind the front will
usher in slightly cooler air daytime Sunday, with afternoon
highs reaching the low 80s north to upper 80s/low 90s south.

Early next work week, GEFS and ECMWF EPS agree shortwave upper
level ridging will take shape over the western CONUS, moving
east with time. This pattern suggests warm, dry conditions are
likely with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Precipitation chances return Tuesday night into
Wednesday as weak vorticity lobes crest the shortwave ridge and
combine with moist southeasterly upslope flow, and this is
reflected by GEFS and ECMWF EPS probability of QPF > 0.1"
increasing into the 50-70% range for areas along and south of
US-50. Precipitation chances may continue through the end of the
long term period as the upper level shortwave ridge passes
overhead allowing southwesterly flow to return, but GEFS/ECMWF
EPS probability of QPF > 0.1" equal to or below 50% implies
appreciable uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Radar
observations show a cold front is currently moving through
southwest KS, which will cause winds to flip to the north and
increase significantly into the 27-32 kt range gusting to 37-42
kts for a few hours. These winds will begin subsiding around
sunset, weakening to aob 12 kts by late morning/early afternoon
Friday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer