686
FXUS63 KDVN 091750
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy pleasant weather is expected today.

- Below normal temperatures in place tonight through Monday night.

- Warm/Hot weather remains on track for Wednesday through the Weekend.

- SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

It seems like we`ve had plenty of deep mixing days lately, and
we`re set up for another mostly sunny, breezy, how humidity day
again today. After lows in the lower to mid 50s today, a rapid
rebound to the lower 80s is expected in most areas, with
humidity dropping to 25-30% during the afternoon as winds blow
15 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph from the northwest. These are
comfortable days for people, but certainly are drying out our topsoil.

Tonight, with clear skies, we`ll quickly decouple winds and allow
for another chilly night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This
dry air is at least allowing for air conditioners to take nights off.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The dry air regime (high pressure) will continue to stay in control
through Tuesday. Monday appears to be less mixed, and should have
highs in the 70s, while Tuesday will see increasing southwest
winds on the back side of the high pressure, and return to the
lower 80s again. In that transition out of the high pressure,
some models suggest a few high based showers by Tuesday
afternoon in warm advection aloft. We`re carrying very low pops
in our northwestern counties for that, but this probably is a
virga event or sprinkles.

With dry air still in place, but strong warm advection Wednesday, we
should see our first above normal day in the upcoming stretch. Highs
in the mid to upper 80s should be rather widespread with dry
conditions.

Wednesday night through Thursday night the building upper ridge is
expected to flatten, allowing for energy to ride over the Cornbelt,
with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing. While not certain
on these details yet, there will be increasing odds for MCS
activity in this summer pattern. Roughly 1/2 of the GEFs members
show significant rain chances here late week while the 00z EC
is quite bullish in showing a stationary front with waves of
thunder chances late week through the weekend. That said, the
heat we`re discussing at length the past few days, may be
limited by this precipitation in the end. Time will tell, and
after all these dry well mixed days, rainfall should be welcome
in most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR (SKC) conds through this taf cycle. A dry FROPA moving
through the area will create gusty northwest winds with gusts to
around 30 kts behind the front. The winds will quickly diminish
with loss of heating by 01z or 02z this evening. Then overnight
into Monday morning north winds will be 10-15 kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Haase