Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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599 FXUS63 KJKL 281750 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH 150 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A period of cooler than normal temperatures, and drier than normal conditions is expected across eastern Kentucky over the next 5-7 days. - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, but coverage and rainfall amounts will be scattered and light. - Warmer and somewhat more humid weather will return by next weekend, with our next area-wide chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 148 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024 Fair bit of cumulus across the region. One or two showers have developed and then dissipated. Still expecting additional activity to develop and move through the area this afternoon, although it should remain relatively sparse. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024 Rather potent shortwave trough over Indiana will continue to rotate east through the longwave trough across the eastern United States today. This feature will serve to do two things - 1) steepen low and mid level lapse rates which will aid in the development of afternoon cumulus and a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm at peak heating (these should remain quite scattered/limited in coverage), and 2) carve out deeper/stronger negative mid level height anomalies which will serve to reinforce the cooler air that has moved into the Ohio Valley. Expect a fair amount of sunshine this morning to be quickly replaced by building cumulus during the afternoon, especially north as mixing increases and lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings this afternoon suggest enough shallow instability and EQLs to -15C or so again especially across the north, a few lightning strikes can`t be ruled out. However, the overall troposphere is quite thus shower coverage should remain quite sparse which is generally an amalgam of the various CAMs -- some have quite a decent amount of coverage while some have very little. Better forcing to the north means higher coverage of showers should remain north of the area. Lapse rates remain steep overnight as cold advection continues, so clouds may not erode as quickly as forecast overnight, though any showers should slowly come to an end. A reinforcing lobe of energy digging southeast through the longwave trough should continue shower threats and more clouds especially across the north/northeast parts of the forecast area. Temperatures running a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday, and may struggle to reach 70F in the far north. 355 .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024 A continued cool and largely dry pattern across eastern Kentucky for Thursday and Friday, with plenty of sunshine especially Friday. Friday morning low temperatures could settle into the upper 40s in some of the sheltered/cold prone areas on Friday morning, feeling more like later April than the approach of June. Southwest flow begins on Saturday and increases on Sunday on the backside of the sharp upper ridge axis traversing the Ohio Valley. Warmth and humidity will be on the increase, which sets up a more traditional early June pattern for much of next week with increasing chances of showers and storms, and temperatures returning into the 80s with more humidity. Right now the better chances of rain look to be on Saturday into Sunday, but admittedly confidence is not overly with considerably amplitude/timing differences with the next wave(s) as the pattern becomes less amplified / quasi-zonal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024 A good deal of cumulus has developed across the region. Expect this to continue through the daylight hours. There could be a passing shower, but the probability of that occurring at any particular terminal is too low to include in the TAFs. Cumulus should diminish after 00Z, although there are some indications that at least a few clouds could linger well into the night. At this point, do not expect this to hinder valley fog development. So have IFR/LIFR redeveloping at KLOZ and KSME. Conditions will improve quickly after 12Z with only a few clouds during the latter part of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JKL SHORT TERM...JKL LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...JKL