Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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373 FXUS63 KJKL 280021 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH 821 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler, drier air will eventually filter into eastern Kentucky behind an exiting cold frontal system. Generally cooler and less humid weather will then be in place over the next several days. - Warmer and somewhat more humid weather will return by next weekend, with our next area-wide chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 525 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2024 Looking forward to quiet, pleasant weather for this cycle of the short term. Upper level low over the Great Lakes Region will keep a mean trough in place aloft across the eastern CONUS. Weak short wave disturbances will rotate around the southern periphery of the mean trough, but there appears to be no significant impacts to speak of over our forecast area through the short term. Drier, cooler air will gradually filter into eastern Kentucky later tonight and tomorrow behind an H850 trough, which is passing through the region, currently entering our western most zones, or just entering eastern Kentucky. Sensible weather features seasonably cool afternoons and chilly nights, especially in our sheltered, typically colder valley locations. Northwest flow will tend to provide increasingly clearer sky conditions with a west-northwest gradient wind. Temperatures will drop into the mid 50s tonight and low to mid 50s tomorrow night. While guidance keeps our temperature in the 50s, it is possible some of our coldest valleys could slip into the upper 40s tomorrow night. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low to mid 70s tomorrow. No hazards to deal with during the short term. However, the most recent runs of the hrrr do suggest a new trend in the forecast for this evening in that there may be some isolated shower development along the H850 trough this evening as it passes west to east across the area. Will monitor for possible updates to our PoPs as necessary. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 650 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2024 The 27/12Z model suite analysis beginning Wednesday morning shows an upper level longwave trough over Eastern Canada down across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. An upper level ridge extends from the Southern Plains northward into Manitoba ahead of another trough moving ashore the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure is found over eastern Quebec with a cold front trailing back to the southwest around the southern shores of the Great Lakes. Strong Canadian high pressure is centered over northwest Ontario behind the front. The cold front will brush northeast Kentucky on Wednesday afternoon as it attends the passage of the upper level trough axis and a lead shortwave. This will bring slight chance/low chance POPs to locations northeast of KY Route 15. Surface high pressure then sinks to the Great Lakes on Thursday while additional shortwave energy continues to rotate through and reinforce the troughing aloft. This will keep relatively cool, dry northerly flow in place, holding 850mb temperatures mostly in the 5-10 C range. The surface high will then shift east Friday along with the upper level ridge axis while subsiding and weakening. Once the surface high is off to our east, southerly return flow will bring increasing moisture levels and warmer temperatures for the first three days of June. Passing disturbances will interact with this moisture to bring daily slight chance/chance POPs from Saturday onward. In terms of sensible weather, look for sporadic showers to bubble up on Wednesday northeast of KY Route 15, with the highest chances ~30% over the Big Sandy Basin. Temperatures will be seasonably cool with highs in the lower and mid 70s. From Wednesday night into Friday night, low humidity, cool temperatures, and fair weather will prevail with northerly breezes. Look for daily highs in the lower to mid 70s while night time lows range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Daily shower and thunder chances then return over the weekend and early next week as southerly flow brings rising moisture levels and temperatures moderating into the lower to mid 80s by Monday, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the period. The only exceptions should be sub-VFR conditions in some very isolated showers this evening, and in localized valley fog in south central and southeast Kentucky overnight and early Tuesday morning. The fog is not likely to affect TAF sites. Winds will diminish to around 5 kts or less tonight, and pick up from the west around 10 kts during the day on Tuesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM... AVIATION...RAY