Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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551 FXUS64 KLUB 292005 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 305 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of today. Cloud cover will build over much of the area limiting instability. An upper shortwave will track across the Panhandle later tonight through early Thursday morning. The greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will occur near the trough axis over the far southern Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains for this time period. This reflects many of the latest CAM runs. Given the higher dewpoints, severe weather cannot be completely ruled out, however it will be much more isolated compared to that of yesterday. A brief lull is expected between Thursday morning and early afternoon. Latest models show a dryline developing slightly farther west than overnight runs. Temperatures have been increased slightly from the previous forecast as well. High-res model instability currently shows between 2500-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE. A relatively potent upper shortwave should provide more than enough forcing to initiate convection Thursday afternoon, with storms expected to develop along the dryline roughly on a north-south line running from Castro through Terry Counties. These storms are likely to become severe as they track eastward with potentially damaging winds and large hail. Tornadoes are unlikely but cannot be ruled out. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Thunderstorm activity should to be ongoing Thursday night, likely in the form of a MCS moving through much of the Rolling Plains. Severe threats Thursday night will likely transition to damaging straight-line winds and flash flooding. We have low confidence in the convective forecast for Friday. Much of it will depend on the extent of any lingering MCS activity east and south of the forecast area Friday morning and whether or not we`ll see a strong intrusion of cool, stable outflow air back west through the forecast area. Weak ridging in the wake of the exiting trough should keep t-storm chances limited overall, and storm organization, however, with a moist airmass in place, if the atmosphere can recover and the cap can be breached we could see at least isolated t-storm activity Friday afternoon and evening. Saturday looks like the day with the most potential in the extended for scattered t-storm activity and severe weather potential as another shortwave trough approaches the region and encounters a moist and potentially unstable airmass. The potential for heavy rainfall also looks to be present. For Sunday into the middle of next week, ridging looks to build over the 4-corners region into West Texas. This will bring warmer and drier conditions in general. However, the medium range guidance isn`t in complete agreement on how strongly the ridge builds over our area, so we can`t completely rule out t-storm chances at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR will persist at all TAF sites through this evening. A brief period of MVFR CIGs is expected late tonight through early Thursday morning at KLBB and KPVW and should return to VFR after sunrise. For KCDS, MVFR is expected to continue from late tonight through the end of the TAF period. Thunderstorms are possible later this evening as well but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. There is good confidence for severe weather beginning Thursday afternoon, however any storms should commence after 18Z. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...19