Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 122322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR will dominate this TAF cycle will only some passing middle and
high clouds at times. Winds will be on the light side and
generally of a southeasterly persuasion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018/

It has been a very un-Lubbock-like day with such calm winds, but we
all enjoyed it. As a surface high continues to control our weather
again tomorrow and upper ridging begins to build in, we`ll continue
to see fairly calm winds. Northwesterly flow will help keep
temperatures cooler, and mid-upper level moisture will bring in some
cloud cover as well. We`ll almost be close enough to smell the rain
tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave pushes southeast out of CO into
the TX/OK Panhandles. Those areas have a decent shot at some
moisture, we`ll be left with the clouds in our forecast area.

Temperatures warm more on Wednesday as the surface high weakens and
upper ridging builds in stronger. The big warm up occurs on Thursday
as ridging is passing over and southwest winds return. A surface low
tightens the gradient on Thursday bringing another breezy day.

Beginning Friday through the weekend, models are extremely out of
phase. One solution leads to upper troughing creating a rain maker,
the other leads to the trough lift from the Four Corners into the
Central Plains...leaving us with a wind maker. Some mid to upper
level moisture appears to return by Saturday, but the lower levels
look to be too try to allow moisture to pass. With our current
weather pattern, was inclined to go with the wind solution. The
Blend brought in some meager PoPs for the weekend but chose to take
these out until some sort of consensus is reached in the guidance.
One positive note, a dryline feature appears for Saturday. We are
one day closer to seeing our sloshing dryline thunderstorm days
return...which means someone is bound to get moisture at some point!




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