Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
449 FXUS64 KLUB 310824 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 324 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Relatively weak west-northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the region early this morning with a mature MCS over central TX and scattered elevated showers over the TX Panhandle at 3 AM. There is still poor consensus among models for the potential re-invigoration of thunderstorms over our area early this morning. The aforementioned scattered activity over the TX Panhandle has thus far failed to maintain intensity as it shifts southward. However, water vapor channel imagery highlights several southward-moving midlevel waves which still have the potential to ignite additional elevated convection as they intercept a modest low level theta-e ridge over the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Given the uncertainty, will maintain broad-brushed PoPs across most of the forecast area through the early to mid morning hours. Prospects for additional thunderstorms this afternoon and evening appear to be more limited today compared to earlier this week. Surface moisture will be plentiful throughout the day with dewpoints generally progged to remain above 60F, but the combination of a relatively stable airmass in addition to modest shortwave ridging building aloft is expected to largely prevent storm development locally through the daytime hours. That being said, convection is still expected to develop over the New Mexico high terrain today, and with weak westerlies in place aloft, this activity does have the potential to shift into our western zones late this evening and tonight. If this does occur, steep midlevel lapse rates will maintain relatively impressive elevated instability, but overall weak shear magnitudes should keep severe potential fairly limited. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding how far east this activity will progress tonight, and given a lack of model consensus have kept PoPs relatively low tonight with highest storm chances confined to areas along the TX/NM state line. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Mostly zonal flow with weak ridging Saturday will give way to westerly winds aloft. Southerly surface winds will bring low level moisture and surface dewpoints in the 60s across the forecast area. With upslope surface flow, temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal in the lower to mid 80s. Convective temperatures are still expected to be met by Saturday afternoon with storms fire along the higher terrain across eastern New Mexico and moving eastward through the evening. A shortwave disturbance in the flow aloft should act to keep storms going through the night across the South and Rolling Plains. Storm severity will likely decrease, but the environment will still be capable of a few storms with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heading into Sunday, the dryline will setup farther east across the South Plains. Southerly surface winds ahead of the dryline will give way to increased low level moisture and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Soundings indicate convective temperatures will be breached during the afternoon hours with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Models indicate a shortwave disturbance in the flow aloft that will help to drive thunderstorm development and intensification through the afternoon and evening hours along and east of the I-27 corridor. Instability parameters support a few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Early next week will feature very hot and dry conditions. Monday, westerly flow will persist aloft with the return of downsloping southwesterly surface winds as the dryline mixes eastward. Temperatures will creep into the triple digits at a few locations across the High Plains of Texas. By Tuesday, the next upper level trough will deepen and dig into the Northern Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will develop across the Texas Panhandle with very warm downsloping winds giving way to widespread triple digit heat across West Texas. A weak cold front will dive south across the area Wednesday morning with a return to highs in the 90s. A weak ridge will also build in aloft with several disturbances in the flow aloft and a small chance for precipitation to return to the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Low confidence forecast early this morning given uncertainties regarding the potential for overnight convection. All sites are expected to remain VFR through most of the overnight hours, with an MVFR cloud deck expected to attempt to develop near sunrise. An area of TS currently over the west-central Texas Panhandle is expected to shift southward overnight. Confidence is highest in TS reaching PVW and LBB during the hours surrounding sunrise, with slightly lower TS potential at CDS. This activity is likely to bring a period of erratic gusty winds in addition to a period of more persistent MVFR CIGs. After this convection clears the area to the south by mid-morning, VFR is expected to return to all sites and continue through the rest of the day on Friday. Additional TS will be possible Friday afternoon and evening especially at PVW and LBB, but confidence in this is too low for a TAF mention at this issuance. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...30