701
FXUS63 KICT 171959
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds this evening especially for areas along and west
  of I-135.

- Storm chances increase late Tue afternoon and evening over
  central KS along a slow moving cold front. Strong/severe
  storms are possible with this activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A shortwave trough moving over the central and northern Great Basin
area was serving to break down the mid/upper ridge over the central
CONUS with southwest mid/upper flow returning. Meanwhile, a cold
front was draped across southern Nebraska extending northeastward
into the Great Lakes area. The front over southern Nebraska will
initially lift northward this evening as a warm front while a surge
of cooler air is progged to impact the Central High Plains tonight.
Strong southerly winds will persist into the evening hours as we
remain within a deeply mixed pbl and the LLJ is progged to quickly
ramp up this evening. A wind advisory remains in effect through 9 PM
for parts of central KS.

The slow moving or stationary front over western Kansas on Tuesday
will likely become a focus for deep moist convection on Tuesday
afternoon becoming more numerous on Tuesday evening. We continue to
see stronger capping as you move further south with locations along
and north of I-70 having the higher probabilities for showers and
storms. A stationary front will remain draped across portions of
central and western Kansas on Wednesday likely becoming a focus for
additional shower and thunderstorms chances. The front could be
forced further south depending on the amount of storm activity.

Mid/upper ridging will begin to have a bigger influence on the area
by late in the week with most areas remaining dry. Temperatures will
start to rise late in the week and into the weekend. A subtle
shortwave trough may bring a chance of showers and storms to the
area this weekend with mostly dry weather conditions lingering
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the remaining daylight hours at
all sites. The primary aviation concern for the period remains
strong southerly winds gusting to 30-40kts at all sites except for
KCNU. This presents a low level turbulence setup for much of this
period. Overnight and early Tuesday morning, MVFR cigs are
anticipated to settle in over central and south central Kansas.
These could momentarily drop to IFR levels especially at KCNU, but
confidence is too low to mention at this time. Stay tuned to later
forecasts for better timing and information regarding these lowered
ceilings, which should recover later Tuesday morning to VFR criteria
alongside gusty southerly winds once again at all sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-068.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ELM/JWK