758
FXUS64 KMAF 200531
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1231 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

As expected, Potential Tropical Cyclone One has strengthened into
Tropical Storm Alberto early this afternoon. This tropical storm
remains in the Bay of Campeche and is continuing to slowly slide
off to the west. The influence of this massive system is already
beginning to be seen across our neck of the woods. The outermost
bands of its cloud field are beginning to move into our region.
These clouds and slightly decreased heights result in a cooler
afternoon across the area with most in the lower 90s and any 100s
confined to the Rio Grande Valley. Rainfall from Alberto remains
to our southeast but a weak disturbance ahead of this should aide
in the development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening across the higher elevations. It is not
expected until near midnight for the outer bands of convection
from Alberto to reach the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. These
bands continue to expand to the north and west through the early
morning hours. In addition to the arrival of these outer bands are
strong winds. Wind speeds between 25-35 mph are going to be
common across portions of the area south of I-10 with even higher
gusts. This is not quite at the level of warranting wind
advisories but these winds will be felt nonetheless. The
increasing clouds and strong winds keep everyone mild overnight
with upper 60s to low 70s for the majority.

Thursday is the big day in terms of rainfall potential. The
center of what remains of Tropical Storm Alberto should be
positioned south of the region. This puts the entire area under
the influence of the convective bands of this immense system. The
most consistent banding or repeated rounds of precipitation is
expected to be mostly focused south of I-10 and especially south
of US Highway 90. Further north, convection is more widely
scattered and this greatly impacts rainfall totals. Temperatures
should be much cooler once again due to abundant clouds and
rainfall. The lower elevations only climb into the lower 80s and
the higher elevations can expect pleasant 70s. The convective
bands continue to pivot around the remnants of Alberto as it
continues to progress to the southwest of the area tomorrow night.
Rain chances slowly diminish from northeast to southwest as this
occurs with the last of the rain likely moving out of the Permian
Basin by Friday morning. Temperatures during the morning are
expected to be nearly identical to the previous day.

The benefit of the forcing for this rainfall being related to a
tropical system is very high perceptible water values are
expected. In addition, anything that does develop should be
efficient rainfall producers dominated by warm rain processes
within this tropical vertical profile. Confidence is high (70-90%)
that portions of the lower Trans Pecos into the Big Bend nearest
the Rio Grande could see over one inch of total rainfall. This is
sorely needed in this drought stricken area. The higher elevations
should also expect beneficial rainfall totals as half an inch to
nearly an inch is expected. Unfortunately, the Permian Basin and
much of the lower elevations look to miss out on the bulk of the
accumulations. Much of the Permian Basin may struggle to see more
than a tenth of an inch, though locally higher amounts are
possible. The rest of the lower elevations can expect near a
quarter of an inch of rainfall.

Regardless of totals, enjoy it as once this system clears the
area Friday it looks dry for much of the long term period as you
will see below.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Rain chances decrease from east to west Friday morning through
evening, and any lingering changes of rain will be over far
western regions west and southwest of the Pecos River into Friday
night. With decreasing clouds and rain chances, highs Friday will
be warmer than Thursday, widespread 80s and some 90s over the
easternmost Permian Basin and along the Rio Grande. Light
southeasterly flow keeps low lows Friday night slightly warmer
than average and mainly in the 60s and 70s. After rain associated
with the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto over northern Mexico
moves away, ridging will build back southwest from the northeast
US, with large scale subsidence and increasing heights resulting
in a warming trend. Highs in the 90s along and northeast of the
Pecos River and along the Rio Grande Saturday, and 90s most
locations aside from higher elevations, are forecast Sunday.
Triple digit readings make an appearance by Monday over eastern
Permian Basin, Reeves County plains, western Permian Basin and
along the Pecos River in SE NM plains, as well as along the Rio
Grande, with 90s elsewhere. Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging is
maintained, triple digit readings for most of the Permian Basin,
SE NM plains, Reeves County plains into Stockton Plateau, and near
the Rio Grande are expected, with 90s elsewhere. Diurnally driven
storms over the Sacramento Foothills and Davis Mountains from
heating of elevated terrain are possible each afternoon Saturday
into next Wednesday, but otherwise not expecting much in the way
of rain chances. Light southeasterly flow will maintain dewpoints
in the 60s, 70s in easternmost regions and 50s in westernmost
regions, which will also prevent lows from falling much and only
reaching the 70s, 60s in usual cooler spots of northern Lea County
and higher elevations of Marfa Plateau and Trans Pecos. Wednesday
evening into Thursday next week, there are indications of rain
developing farther north and east over the SE NM plains and into
the northern Permian Basin in addition to the usual far western
regions, but this far out we cannot be certain this will pan out.
We will continue to monitor the long term forecast for any signal
of rain chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR CIGs will gradually fill in at each terminal from east to west
over the next few hours with some terminals briefly reaching IFR
over the course of the morning and through the day on Thursday.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible through the TAF
period and amendments with tempos will be necessary at times given
radar trends. Gusty easterly winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  71  92  71 /  40  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 82  69  85  68 /  80  80  40  10
Dryden                   82  71  85  70 /  90  80  40  10
Fort Stockton            81  70  87  69 /  80  70  40  10
Guadalupe Pass           73  64  78  64 /  80  80  60  10
Hobbs                    80  66  87  66 /  60  60  10   0
Marfa                    74  61  83  59 /  90  80  50  20
Midland Intl Airport     82  70  88  70 /  60  40   0   0
Odessa                   81  70  89  70 /  60  40   0   0
Wink                     86  72  90  71 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93