Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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594 FXUS64 KOUN 151900 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 - Low rain chances this evening in western Oklahoma. - Above average temperatures much of this week - Rain chances mid-week and higher rain chances late this week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A few isolated showers/storms may develop later this afternoon and evening affecting parts of western OK and western north TX. With coverage expected to be minimal and some question on whether this activity will develop, chances are very low (around 10%) but do have a mention of isolated showers/storms in the forecast although most locations will stay dry. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 60s to around 70 across the area tonight. Above average temperatures are expected Monday with highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s with the hottest temperatures in parts of southwest OK and western north TX. Isolated showers/storms may be possible again Monday in NW parts of the fa, but chances are currently low enough that do not have a mention in the forecast. However, something that later shifts will have to keep an eye on. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Above average temperatures are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week. Models show an upper ridge over the region for the first part of the week. Meanwhile, a longwave trough develops in the western U.S. This trough is expected to lift NE into the northern Plains towards the middle part of the week. The southern end of the trough will bring a chance for showers/storms to parts of western and northern OK Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models show another mid/upper trough moving across the SW U.S. into the central/southern Plains towards the end of the week into next weekend. There are some differences in timing and path of this system so not high confidence in the forecast but it does look like this will be the best chance for more widespread showers and storms across the fa. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Generally southeast to easterly winds will continue through the TAF period. Northwest Oklahoma may see some breeziness this afternoon and early evening. VFR conditions will prevail. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 93 65 94 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 68 94 66 94 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 64 93 64 94 / 10 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 63 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...14