506
FXUS64 KTSA 290530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Bulk of shower and storm activity gas remained to the
west this afternoon, though some activity is noted across
parts of NE OK. Rain and storm chances will continue tonight
with any weak waves traversing the area in W-NW flow aloft.
Slightly higher PoPs will be focused across the western portion
of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Deep gulf moisture will continue to feed into the area
through Friday while the upper pattern remains active. As is
often seen, model spread regarding timing and placement of an any
individual upper wave problematic, so including PoPs everywhere
in most if not all periods of the forecast cycle is reasonable
given the upper pattern. At this time, best chances for rain/storms
appear to be late Thursday night into Friday as a more notable
upper wave moves through. Additional, but lower chances for rain
and storms will continue through the weekend and into next week as
little overall change in the upper pattern is expected.
Widespread severe weather is not expected over the next several
days, though an isolated strong to marginally severe storm is
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with some mid to high
cloud cover spreading over the area. Continued cloud cover should
keep fog from forming overnight, but some patchy light fog could
be possible toward sunrise. Scattered showers will become possible
again during the daytime hours with some embedded thunderstorms
during the afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions could briefly occur
within any thunderstorms. Winds will generally be less than 10
knots out of the southeast.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  63  79  64 /  50  20  30  60
FSM   81  65  79  66 /  60  20  20  30
MLC   79  63  78  66 /  70  20  30  50
BVO   78  59  79  62 /  40  10  30  60
FYV   80  60  78  61 /  60  20  20  30
BYV   77  58  78  60 /  50  10  20  30
MKO   78  63  78  64 /  60  20  30  50
MIO   78  59  79  62 /  40  10  30  50
F10   77  62  78  64 /  60  20  40  60
HHW   79  65  78  66 /  70  20  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04