Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Convection continues to lessen in coverage this morning with lower
ceilings gradually clearing western AR sites. Circulation around
the passing upper low will push MVFR ceilings back southward today
while winds increasing markedly and shift direction with a frontal
passage. Once MVFR ceilings return at each terminal they are
expected to prevail through Monday night.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 250 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/

Upper level low pressure system was continuing to shift eastward
across Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas early this morning.
Extending southward from the low was a surface boundary/dryline
stretched north to south across Central Oklahoma. At the same time
a cold front/secondary boundary was trailing the low across the
Oklahoma Texas Panhandles. Out ahead of the dryline...a narrow
surface instability axis with dewpoints around 60 degrees
interacting with this boundary was creating scattered convection
quickly moving eastward into Southeast Oklahoma. Latest radar
images were showing a slight weakening trend as this convection
begins to outrun the eastward push of the instability axis along
the dryline. Additional showers/convection were occurring across
Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas associated with the low itself.
Steep mid level lapse rates could allow for marginally severe hail
to be possible with all of this activity...though the strong
0-6km wind sheer of 80+KTs was helping to keep some updrafts from
sustaining themselves.

The showers/convection will continue to push across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this morning as the dryline and
low pressure system move east through the region. The majority of
the activity looks to be north and east of the CWA shortly after
12z this morning...with any remaining activity across far
Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas through the morning

By this afternoon...the low is progged to move into Southern
Missouri with the associated cold front moving into Northeast
Oklahoma mid morning and through the CWA this afternoon. Behind
the cold front...gusty northwesterly winds 25-35 mph and drier air
are forecast to spread across the CWA. Also behind the cover wrapping back around the low should begin to
push back into the CWA from northwest to southeast. This will help
to keep temperatures in the 50s near the Kansas border to the low
70s near the Red River. The warmer temperatures and drier air
across Southeast Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas will increase
fire weather conditions with limited fire dangers possible over
Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas.

Late this afternoon into tonight...a weak impulse within the
upper level trof axis should quickly move through the region and
exit by Tuesday morning. This additional impulse will continue the
cloud cover and could develop some light rain showers for parts
of Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Breezy
northwesterly winds along with the cloud cover should help to keep
low temps in the 40s for most locations tonight.

Cloud cover is forecast to taper off from west to east Tuesday
afternoon/evening with mostly clear skies and light winds going
into Wednesday morning. This should be the coldest morning of the
week with lows in the 30s for most locations. The normal cold
spots could fall near/just below the freezing mark. These cooler
conditions will be short lived as a ridge of high pressure pushes
back into the region for the second half of the week with a return
of southerly winds and warmer temperatures. Southerly winds look
to become gusty into Friday which will again help to increase fire
weather concerns over the CWA.

Late in the week and into the weekend...latest model solutions
continue to disagree on timing/location details of another wave
moving into the Plains. For now will continue with persistence of
previous forecasts and carry low chance pops at the far end of the
forecast period for the CWA.


TUL   61  41  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
FSM   71  45  58  36 /  20  20  10   0
MLC   67  43  59  36 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   57  40  57  30 /  20  30  10   0
FYV   67  40  52  30 /  30  30  10   0
BYV   64  40  51  32 /  70  30  10   0
MKO   65  42  57  35 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   61  40  53  32 /  60  30  10   0
F10   63  41  58  36 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   73  45  60  39 /  10  10  10   0




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