218
FXUS63 KICT 150554
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray shower/storm possible in southeast KS this afternoon

- Thunderstorms, some severe, expected this evening/overnight across
  central KS

- Additional storms possible Saturday and again Tuesday-Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

As of 230 PM, another warm afternoon was ongoing across the region
with temperatures in the low to middle 90s area-wide. A midlevel
ridge axis remains positioned overhead. Weak WAA near 700 mb and a
remnant MCV generated convection for much of the morning across
western KS. This activity has greatly decreased in intensity this
afternoon with the loss of substantial WAA. Closer to home, an axis
of higher low-level theta-e resides across southeast KS and
collocated with a cumulus field. A stray shower/storm is possible
through late afternoon (20% or less). No severe weather is expected.
Our attention then turns to the higher terrain of CO and NM where
convection is developing within an upslope regime. Tend to agree
with the latest HREF run with convection growing upscale and
moving northeast across portions of central and northern KS.
This track keeps the bulk of convection northwest of the
midlevel ridge axis. The most likely time for storms across
central KS appears to be in the 11PM to 3AM time frame.
Damaging winds up to 60 mph and brief heavy rainfall are the
chief concerns.

A stronger midlevel shortwave trough is poised to eject into the
state Saturday. This may focus storms across central and south
central KS. Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis
will amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the
Plains on the western periphery. Temperatures will remain warm with
highs in the mid 90s through Tuesday. A western US trough will pivot
into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold
front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the
MS Valley. In addition, shower and storm chances will return Tuesday
night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Main aviation concern will be storms over the next few hours
along with storm chances later this afternoon and evening.

Currently have a line of storms making their way across central
KS and will affect KSLN in the next couple of hours. There is
also a chance a storm or two could affect KHUT. Once storms
move-off to the east we will see a lull in activity. Currently
have an upper impulse tracking across northeast CO/nw KS and
will continue tacking off to the northeast today. This feature
may provide enough lift to generate a few storms this afternoon
or early evening. However, with lack of surface focus,
confidence is not high enough to insert into TAFs at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...RBL