Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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794 FXUS63 KLBF 300810 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 310 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the evening hours from southwestern into central and portions of northeastern Nebraska. - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night and Sunday night. - Warmer temperatures are expected beyond Friday with highs in the 80s this weekend into early next week. Some readings may approach 90 Sunday and Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a ridge of high pressure which extended from eastern Nebraska, north into northern portions of Manitoba Canada. West of this ridge, a strong shortwave trough of low pressure extended from northern Alberta, south into central Idaho. Immediately downstream of this feature, a lead shortwave was positioned from the Black Hills, south into northeastern Colorado. Other features of note this evening across the CONUS, included a shortwave trough over the Arkansas Ozarks and a deeper, more broad trough of low pressure, which extended from Quebec, south into Virginia and the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure was anchored over northeastern Wisconsin. A stationary frontal boundary extended from northwestern South Dakota into northern Arkansas and northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A surface trough of low pressure extended south from low pressure located over western North Dakota. Immediately west of the surface trough, a cold front extended from northeastern Wyoming into northwestern Colorado and southwestern Utah. Showers and thunderstorms, in association with an upper level disturbance were exiting northeastern portions of the forecast area. Further west, isolated showers were present from the northern Nebraska Panhandle into northwestern portions of the forecast area. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy overnight and 3 AM CT temperatures ranged from 59 degrees at Gordon to 67 degrees at O`Neill. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A rather complex precipitation scenario setting up for today across the forecast area. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms should exit the area by daybreak. Later this morning into the afternoon hours, the before mentioned surface trough, will be forced east by a northern stream trough of low pressure aloft. By 21z this afternoon this boundary is expected to reside from northeastern Nebraska to southwestern Nebraska. With surface heating this afternoon, modest SB CAPES of 1500 to 2000 J/KG will develop INVOF the boundary per the latest NAM12 soln. By 21z, this same model has little to no CIN present from central into northeastern Nebraska, which will lead to thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Further southwest into southwestern Nebraska and northeastern Colorado, the cap will hold on until this evening. That being said, precipitation chances will begin this afternoon in the east, transitioning to the southwest then west into the evening hours. As for the severe threat, deep layer shear is on the order of 20 to 25 KTS in the central and northeastern forecast area and lapse rates in the H7-H5 layer would indicate only a meager threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Believe the greater threat for isolated severe storms will reside over southwestern Nebraska, as mid level lapse rates are steeper and deep layer shear stronger. However, given the degree of convective inhibition this afternoon, storms should hold off in SW Nebraska until the evening hours. As for highs today, they will range from the lower 70s INVOF the surface trough (ie. more abundant cloud cover) to the middle 70s elsewhere. On Friday, the front will be forced south and southwest of the area into Kansas and northeastern Colorado. Though the main threat for thunderstorms will reside south and west of the forecast area, couldn`t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm Friday, thanks to easterly winds and the presence of mid level warm air advection. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across northeastern Colorado Friday evening. This activity may eventually make it east into southwestern Nebraska overnight before dissipating. Better chances for thunderstorms will arrive late Saturday into Saturday night across the area. The mid level pattern will become more zonal, leading to stronger mid and upper level winds across the area. By Saturday afternoon, a nice theta-e ridge will build north from northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle. With surface heating ie. temps in the lower to middle 80s, SB capes will reach 2000-2500 J/KG in the panhandle and western Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Deep layer shear of 30+ KTS and steep mid level lapse rates will support large hail and a damaging wind threat, mainly over the western half of the forecast area. A similar setup will commence on Sunday afternoon, albeit, slightly farther east per the latest GFS soln. With highs in the mid to upper 80s Sunday, and forecast dew points in the lower to middle 50s west of highway 83 and 60+ dew points east of this route, CAPES may approach 3000+J/KG Sunday afternoon. The latest GFS indicates deep layer shear of 30 to 40 KTS Sunday afternoon which should favor severe thunderstorms. Beyond Sunday night, the threat for precipitation will decrease across the area as stronger mid and upper level winds, shift north into the northern Rockies and northern plains. By midweek next week, the models are trending toward a broad ridge of high pressure aloft building into the central and southern Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Scattered -TSRA across southwest and north central Nebraska will continue to move east overnight with no impacts to KLBF and KVTN. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at both KLBF and KVTN until at least 12Z. Thereafter, ceilings will lower with MVFR conditions expected at both sites through the early afternoon with a return to low-end VFR conditions for remainder of the period. Southerly winds will veer towards the north/northeast by this afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Viken