845
FXUS63 KDDC 252251
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal to slightly above average temperatures and dry
  conditions can be expected across western Kansas through the
  upcoming weekend.

- A cold frontal passage early next week will deliver a brief
  shot of fall like temperatures to southwest Kansas Monday
  night and Tuesday. There is a 70% chance for highs to fall
  from the 80s into the 60s or lower 70s and lows will be in the
  40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Earlier this morning, a -18C 500mb trough was located over
southeast Arkansas and southern Illinois, while an upper level
ridge was positioned along the Rockies. At the surface, an area
of high pressure was centered over western Kansas, with a
surface trough of low pressure developing along the lee of the
Rockies. The short term models were in good agreement today,
showing the upper low slowly wobbling into the southeastern
United States through the start of the weekend. The upper ridge
axis will shift into the Western High Plains as a northern
branch upper trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into south
central Canada and the Northern Plains. The area of high
pressure at the surface will move east, with a surface ridge
axis stalling across eastern Kansas late week/early weekend. At
the 850mb level, the 850mb high will also shift east, resulting
in weak easterly winds across Kansas through late week, which
should prevent temperatures from warming significantly through
Friday. Over the weekend, warmer 850mb temperatures are expected
to spread east into western Kansas. How far east these warmer
temperatures will extend each afternoon remains unclear, but
highs should reach at least the mid 80s.

Dry conditions will persist into next week. Also early next
week, a more significant northern branch upper level trough is
forecast to cross the Central United States. All ensemble
clusters agree that this upper wave will move across the Central
and Northern Plains during the first half of the week, but
there is uncertainty regarding its timing and strength.
Currently, confidence is low (25%) on which cluster is more
accurate. Of the four differing solutions, 60% of the clusters
indicate conditions will be favorable for our next shot of
cooler air invading western Kansas by Tuesday, with 30% of these
clusters showing temperatures up to 10F cooler than the grand
ensemble. The other 40% of the clusters are warmer, with 20%
showing temperatures up to 10F warmer Tuesday afternoon. This
warmer scenario is associated with a slower timing of the cold
frontal passage.

Currently given the track of the surface high and that this air
mass is moving in from central Canada, am currently leaning
towards the quicker solutions. Even with low confidence (20-40%)
in the magnitude of the cooling, those with plans toward the
middle of next week should be prepared for another brief period
of fall like conditions, with highs dropping from the 80s into
the 60s or lower 70s, along with gusty north winds which will
make it feel even colder than this. Nighttime temperatures are
likely to dip into the 40s (70% probability), with a slight
chance for lows to fall into the upper 30s (15% or less) in a
few locations, depending on where the center of the surface high
is positioned on Monday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through the
period. Developing light south-southeast winds this evening are expected
to persist through early Thursday as surface high pressure pushes
east across the Central Plains while lee side troughing slowly develops
in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson