Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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658 FXUS63 KDDC 212200 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 500 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rain is likely tonight across the southern tier from Ashland to Pratt and Medicine Lodge and possibly into southern Ford county. - Temperatures will likely not get above the 50s Sunday afternoon. - An upper level storm system will develop over Kansas by Tuesday and then intensify to the southeast or east of here by mid-week. There are small chances for rain Tuesday (10-20%) and then again Thursday and Friday (10-20%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A deep upper low over New Mexico will weaken as it moves into confluent flow over the central plains Sunday. A northern stream trough will push a cold front into southwest Kansas late tonight and through all of southwest Kansas Sunday morning. As the upper trough approaches, a low to mid level baroclinic zone will set up across southwest Kansas. Plentiful low level moisture will interact with this thermal gradient to yield rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The various models and ensembles have steadily trended southward over the past 48 hours and continue to trend south today, including the HRRR/RAP as well as the ensemble means of ICON/CMCE/ECMWF and GEFS. The ensemble means indicate 50-80% chances of 1" or greater of rain along and south of a line from Elkhart to Bucklin to Stafford, with localized 1 to 2" rain amounts. The best chance of the heaviest totals is in vicinity of Ashland, Coldwater, Medicine Lodge and Pratt and possibly northward to Bucklin and Larned. Lighter rain amounts of less than 1" are expected north of the heaviest rain band, with the lightest in Scott City, WaKeeney and Hays. The rain will gradually taper off from west to east Sunday morning into the afternoon. Low stratus will hang around much of the day Sunday, with some breaks possible later in the day. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s. If sunshine does not materialize, then afternoon temperatures will only be in the mid 50s. If sun returns in the afternoon, then readings in the upper 50s to near 60 are possible. As the aforementioned system slowly exits, temperatures will bottom out in the 40s Sunday night as weak surface high pressure settles across the high plains, with lower 40s across the far west where skies will be clear and upper 40s in central Kansas where higher dewpoints will reside. Highs will warm into the 70s for Monday as full sun returns. However, another upper level system will dig southeastward out of Canada and close off over the southern plains or Deep South by Tuesday-Friday. A few light showers are possible Tuesday before the system closes off. Significant moisture will be slow to return into this system initially so that partial sun will lead to highs in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. However, by late week, moisture may wrap around the system and bring better chances for showers into south central Kansas and maybe even farther north and west. The ensemble mean of the ECMWF indicates .1 to .25" rain amounts in central Kansas for the Thursday night to Saturday time frame, which is drier than the operational run. The CMCE mean is farther east and shows even lighter amounts. The GEFS is also farther east with the upper trough like the CMCE. Thus, some of the wetter ensemble members of the ECMWF are outliers and may be too far west with the upper trough, and therefore too wet. A drier solution would mean highs in the 70s, but highs could only be in the 60s if rain occurs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High confidence of poor flying conditions through tonight and the first half of Sunday. Models are in good agreement with IFR/MVFR stratus prevailing during the 03-18z Sun timerange. IFR ceilings appear most probable at LBL/DDC. Widespread light to moderate rain and widespread BR will reduce visibility to as low as 4sm, but areas of fog appear unlikely, tonight through Sunday morning. A strong cold front will swing through the airports around 12z Sun, accompanied by a sharp increase in north winds, averaging 20-30 kts with some higher gusts to near 40 kts possible. After 18z Sun, expect flying conditions to improve, with all rain ending, north winds diminishing, and ceilings gradually returning to VFR. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Turner