997
FXUS64 KFWD 242010
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
310 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

The summer heat is upon North and Central Texas as an upper-level
ridge has settled atop our region. This ridge, which spans across
much of the Southern Plains, will help keep precipitation at bay.
The main weather concern today, and likely through through the
rest of the week, will be the hot conditions that will increase
the risk for heat related illnesses. Temperatures will range from
the mid 90s to around 100 this afternoon and again tomorrow
afternoon.

With south/southeasterly winds in place today, slightly better
moisture is expected across our region compared to yesterday.
Although temperatures will be similar to yesterday, dew points
will be a few degrees higher. This will translate into higher heat
index values, generally ranging from 100-109 degrees. The more
concentrated heat is expected to be along and east of I-35,
therefore, a Heat Advisory is already in effect.

Tomorrow, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer compared to
today, thus, more widespread 105+ heat index values are expected.
The heat advisory will begin at noon tomorrow for areas west of
I-35 and likely be extended for several more days.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Strong ridging aloft centered over West Texas will become
compromised on its east flank late Tuesday into Wednesday by a
shortwave trough dropping southeast from the Plains into the
Mississippi Valley. This disturbance will help drag a cold front
south to near the Red River, where it will stall on Wednesday. The
front and the shortwave together will provide a couple of
opportunities for thunderstorms, the first being Tuesday night
when a east-west oriented linear complex will approach from the
north. Storms should weaken as the approach the Red River, but
will likely hold together long enough to impact areas along and
north of Highway 380. A second opportunity will be Wednesday
afternoon when isolated storms may develop along the stationary
front and move south, which would also affect areas mainly near
the Red River. It is possible that convection may survive as far
south as the I-20 corridor, but probabilities are fairly low
(around 20%). Severe weather appears unlikely at this time in
either case, but gusty winds and heavy rain may accompany the
stronger storms.

Otherwise, the heat will continue to be the main concern for the
next week. It is possible that outflow associated with Tuesday
night/Wednesday convection may knock a few degrees off dewpoints
and/or temperatures, which may allow for a break in the Heat
Advisory for the northern counties for a day. Unfortunately,
compressional warming south of the front will add a few degrees
for areas that miss out on rain or thunderstorm outflow. The ridge
will expand east on Thursday, shutting off rain chances once
again and immersing the entire region in hot and humid conditions
Thursday through the end of the forecast period.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/
/18Z TAFs/


With upper-level high pressure in control, precipitation is not
expected within D10 airspace or in Central Texas. Afternoon
cumulus clouds have developed causing no impacts to the airspace.
The current southerly winds will continue through the rest of this
TAF period with no significant changes expected.

There is a low chance (<30%) that MVFR ceilings impact KACT
closer to sunrise. This plume of moisture is likely to skirt KACT
with a higher areal coverage of MVFR ceilings across the Brazos
Valley. If the probability increases any further, an MVFR ceiling
will need to be included for tomorrow.

Similar to today, additional cumulus clouds are expected tomorrow
afternoon. The clouds should remain fairly scattered AOA FL040.
Impacts to area airports are not expected.


Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  82 100  81 /   0   0  20  10   5
Waco                78  96  78  98  79 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               78  96  78  96  76 /   5   5  10  30   5
Denton              78 100  79  99  78 /   5   5  20  10   5
McKinney            78  97  79  98  78 /   0   5  20  20   5
Dallas              81  99  81  99  81 /   0   0  20  10   5
Terrell             77  96  78  96  77 /   0   0  10  10   5
Corsicana           78  97  79  97  79 /   5   0   5   5   5
Temple              76  97  77  98  77 /   0   0   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       78  98  79 100  77 /   0   0  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$