879
FXUS64 KAMA 050318
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1018 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

-Thunderstorms will be possible Friday and into the first half of
 the weekend with strong winds and localized flooding possible.

-Very warm temperatures with Triple digit high temperatures
 return next week for a few locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Latest obs and water vapor analysis shows a H500 positive tilted
wave with its main axis reaching the Gulf of California. This has
resulted in a series of south to north mid level perturbation
across west Texas. THis has resulted in rain chances, mainly for
the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains for tonight. Some surface
boundaries and/or outflow boundaries for said convection further
south could move north and northwest to produce additional
showers and thunderstorms tonight, but chances overall remain
pretty low (~10%) with the highest chances in the southern Texas
Panhandle. The aforementioned H500 wave by Friday will slowly
begin to move northeast towards the Rio Grande river by Friday
evening as it enters the main steering flow. In the meantime,
throughout the day on Friday, additional showers and thunderstorm
chances from diurnal heating is possible. However, overall
effective shear remains very limited under 20 kts. This will not
support longevity of any thunderstorms that develop. However, any
notable updrafts may produce strong downdrafts and/or generate
cold pools to help initiate new thunderstorm development. Overall
chances for thunderstorm development for the Panhandles will range
from 10-30%. Better chance for thunderstorms, especially for the
eastern Panhandles will be on Saturday as the main H500 now closed
low traverses the Texas Panhandle from SW to NE. Similar to
Friday, thunderstorm setup will involve very anemic shear.
However, for Saturday, with the main low moving over the
Panhandles, higher mid level lapse rates should result in more
overall lift for slow moving thunderstorms. With PWAT values
approaching 99th percentile and overall steering flow quite
limited, will have to watch closely for heavy rainfall rates with
any thunderstorms that develop, along with strong wind gusts
potential from decaying thunderstorms. Any stronger updrafts
within the proximity of the center of the low could also result in
some hail potential as well. High temperatures on Friday will
range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, cooling off slightly with
increased rain chances on Saturday with highs ranging from the
lower to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A building omega block will develop over the eastern 2/3 CONUS going
towards the middle to late next week. Overall dry conditions will
persist through most of the coming week. With strong low level
WAA into the Panhandles being under the ridge of the block, this
will result in overall temperatures well above average. As the
main block shifts east towards the end of the long term forecast
period, as seen with the latest model guidance, rain chances may
return, and will be watching trends closely in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs.
Winds will be out of the south at 10-20 kts. PROB30 groups for
scattered storms Friday afternoon may need to be added in future
issuances if confidence increases, especially at KAMA.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38