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000
FXUS64 KAMA 011850
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
150 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Environment is fairly worked over from last nights storms, and
that does lead to some concern for just how much convection we
will see this afternoon and evening. Overall, earlier CAMs had a
pretty goo swath of storms from Amarillo to Guymon east today and
this evening, but there was a subtle hint that it might be
overdone. We do have some decent lift from the approaching
shortwave ahead of the low southeast of the Las Vegas NV area, but
we haven`t heated up much in the south central Panhandles. So the
storms are currently struggling. Given they were expected to
initialize over this area and expand into a cluster tonight, the
lack of heating could cause storms to fire up more isolated in the
central and west. For storms that do manage to fire up, the low
level lapse rates are expected to be fairly strong, and given the
higher surface dewpoints, the CAPE values will be amplified a bit
and give a chance for storms to go severe. Right now the main
thoughts are that storms will be just strong enough that they
could get up to 60 mph winds and quarter sized hail. Storms should
move out on the early side about 6pm, with the late end being at
the 8-9pm time frame. Small chance that something develops
overnight, but for the most part we should be clear. The northeast
may get just enough lift to allow for some isolated to scattered
storms overnight.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

The seemingly endless days of rain chances continues each day in
the long term forecast. Even though some severe thunderstorms will
be possible on some of these days, the primary concern will be
flooding and flash flooding given heavy rainfall is possible with
these storms. Temperatures will remain below average through late
next week.

On Friday morning, a brief dry period is forecast across the
Panhandles before the next upper level system approaches the
Southern High Plains. With that being said, a H500 low will be
located near the Arizona/New Mexico state line early Friday
morning and will continue to move east/northeast towards the High
Plains during the daytime hours. A decent axis of positive theta-e
will continue to remain across the area given the southerly low
level winds. Given saturated soils, surface dew points should
remain well into the 50s to low 60s on Friday. With the atmosphere
having a slight recovery period from any persistent convection,
the severe thunderstorm potential will remain over the CWA on
Friday. Better upper level dynamics will also move over the area
which looks to increase the bulk shear values up to 30 kts. MUCAPE
values in the 2500-3000 J/kg range combined with the bulk shear
will aid in the possibility of strong to severe storms on Friday
afternoon and evening. Main threats with the severe storms will be
large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, the continued main
concern with any storms will be the heavy rain threat. Forecast
PWAT values will remain near or over the 90th percentile for early
June. Initially, a discrete storm mode is possible but will
quickly transition over to linear as upper level PVA approaches
the area. This could lead to widespread areas of 1 inch or more of
rainfall once again for an already over saturated area of the High
Plains.

H300 low pressure system will develop over portions of the
western CONUS by early next week and will continue to allow
disturbances to move across the forecast area. With plenty of
moisture remaining in the atmosphere, precipitation chances will
continue each day next week, even with subtle ridging over the
area. The details regarding severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall
potential will be assessed day by day given the high uncertainty
in timing and location of specific features. In general,
temperatures will remain below average Friday through the middle
of next week with highs in the mid to upper 70s each day.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Various categories expected over the next 6 hours as showers and
storms will pick back up. Looks like KAMA will see some storms in
the next 60 to 90 minutes. Right now holding storms through about
20z for KAMA, however if storms backbuild then we can expect that
to be extended. VCTS currently at DHT, and have held off on storms
in the site as it may just miss the terminal. KGUY is projected
around 1930z. We`ll amend sites as needed. Winds out of the south
around 10-15kts for the TAF period.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                59  75  54  77 /  10  70  60  20
Beaver OK                  60  80  57  77 /  60  60  80  30
Boise City OK              55  78  51  75 /  20  20  30  40
Borger TX                  61  79  58  81 /  10  60  60  10
Boys Ranch TX              58  77  54  79 /  10  50  40  20
Canyon TX                  58  75  53  77 /  10  80  50  20
Clarendon TX               60  76  57  77 /  20  70  80  20
Dalhart TX                 54  77  51  76 /  20  30  30  30
Guymon OK                  58  79  54  77 /  30  40  60  20
Hereford TX                58  75  53  79 /  10  70  40  20
Lipscomb TX                60  80  57  78 /  50  60  90  30
Pampa TX                   60  75  56  77 /  20  70  80  20
Shamrock TX                61  79  58  78 /  30  70  90  30
Wellington TX              62  81  59  79 /  30  70  90  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...89