884
FXUS64 KAMA 201232
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Infrared satellite depicts a cloud shield over the Panhandles
this morning and temperatures have remained in the mid to upper
teens due to the mid level clouds. Wind chill values have remained
mostly above zero for most locations across the southwest. With
wind chill values not reaching -5 or colder and are unlikely to do
so at this point, have gone ahead and cancelled the Cold Weather
Advisory for this morning. Rest of the forecast remains on track.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

- Cold wind chill values are forecast this morning across the
  southwestern Texas Panhandle where a Cold Weather Advisory is in
  effect due to wind chill values as low as -5.

- Snowfall will move south across the Panhandles today and a
  Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the northern and
  eastern Panhandles. Snowfall amounts across this area will range
  from 1 to 3 inches. Lighter snowfall amounts are forecast
  elsewhere across the region.

- Dangerously cold wind chill values and temperatures are very
  likely tonight. Wind chill values will drop down to -10 to -25
  going into Tuesday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold
  Weather Advisory have been issued for the Panhandles due to
  these dangerously cold wind chills.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Overcast conditions remain in place early this morning across the
Southern High Plains. The cloud cover is aiding in keeping
temperatures at the surface much warmer than last night and
temperatures at the time of this writing are in the teens to lower
20s. Wind chills could still drop below zero, but do not think
they will meet Cold Weather Advisory criteria across the
southwest. Will keep the advisory going for now, but would not be
surprised if it needs to be cancelled sooner than the expiration
time.

Weak shortwaves embedded in the broad scale trough over much of
the CONUS should move over the Panhandles today. Given ample
moisture throughout the column based on forecast soundings, the
lift provided by the upper level disturbances will be sufficient
enough to generate light snow across the CWA today into tonight.
Snow will likely start in the next few hours across the north and
will move south throughout the day. Light snowfall is forecast
early before mesoscale lift starts to factor into the snow rates.
A cold front will begin to move over the northern Panhandles by
mid to late morning and that feature will provide surface lift to
aid in generating higher snowfall rates. Additionally, model
guidance indicates H700 vertical velocity will coincide with the
front which will increase the potential for higher snowfall rates
where these features overlap. The higher potential for these
features to overlap remains across the northern and eastern
Panhandles. This is the area that has the higher potential for 1
inch or more of snowfall, with the current forecast going for 1 to
2.5 inches across this area. Thankfully, the area of higher
snowfall rates should not stay in one place as it will be
dependent on the position of the front, so the potential for
totals higher than 4-5 inches is not overly high at this point,
only around 20 percent or so according to the 20/01z NBM. Just how
far south the higher snowfall rates can get remains uncertain, so
no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory are planned at this
time, but will note it will have to be closely monitored as
expansions are certainly possible later on today should confidence
increase in more widespread 1 inch or higher totals. Snow should
dissipate and exit off to the south of the CWA before midnight
tonight.

Along with the above mentioned cold frontal passage, another surge
of arctic air will move over the Panhandles beginning later this
morning and will continue through tomorrow morning. H850
temperatures reaching as low as minus 15 to 16 Celsius tonight.
Along with the surge of colder air, cloud cover from the earlier
light snowfall will decrease overnight which will lead to very
good radiational cooling across the Panhandles that will be
maximized given additional snowpack from the snowfall earlier in
the day. A similar scenario to what is likely to occur tomorrow
happened on Sunday morning, where temperatures dropped well below
most model guidance and wind chill temperatures also were much
colder than previously expected. With that being said, have cooled
down temperatures for tomorrow morning and will note they may need
to go even colder. Most areas will likely drop below zero for
overnight lows. Thankfully, winds will remain light, but with air
temperatures that cold, it does not take much for the wind chill
to drop considerably below the air temperature. Current lowest
wind chill values drop below minus 10 for most of the area with
the north dropping below minus 20. Have upgraded to Extreme Cold
Warning for most of the area outside of the southeastern Texas
Panhandle where a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued as wind
chill temperatures should remain below criteria that far south. Be
prepared for the dangerously cold wind chills by bundling up if
having to go outside on Tuesday morning!

Breezy southwest winds look to return on Tuesday afternoon which
will aid in bringing back WAA to the Panhandles. Even though H850
temperatures may reach just above freezing, the snowpack and the
cold start to the morning may keep portions of the Panhandles
below freezing once again on Tuesday. Thankfully, the low
temperatures on Tuesday night will not be nearly as cold and wind
chills should remain above zero on Wednesday morning.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

By Wednesday, the arctic airmass should be east of the Panhandles
and temperatures will climb above freezing into the 40s area wide
during the afternoon hours. A weak cold front will move south
across the region late on Wednesday. The colder air behind the
front is forecast to not be nearly as strong as the air mass that
lingered over the Panhandles earlier in the week. Another day in
the 40s is likely on Thursday as an H500 trough moves to the
northeast of the area. Northwest to westerly flow aloft is looking
likely on Friday which will aid in developing a leeside surface
low across southeastern Colorado that will tighten the surface
pressure gradient across the Panhandles. Breezy southwest winds
are currently forecast for Friday and temperatures will finally
return to above average in the mid to upper 50s for highs. Another
positively tilted trough looks to dig southward next weekend, but
models do not agree with how this system will evolve. Model
guidance does bring another front across the region on Saturday,
but just how cold the air is behind the front is uncertain at this
point. Dry conditions look to prevail throughout the long term
forecast at this point.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Light snow will impact all sites over the next 12 hours or so.
Have included light snow mentions at each terminal and visibility
restrictions due to falling snow. Additionally, low clouds are
starting to move in at KGUY and will eventually reach KDHT and
KAMA. Ceilings should drop down to MVFR at all sites before clouds
clear out after 00z and a return to VFR conditions are forecast.
Winds will initially be out of the south but will shift to out of
the north behind a cold front. Occasional gusts will be possible
behind the front. Winds will decrease towards the end of this TAF
cycle.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                21   0  36  22 /  50  30   0   0
Beaver OK                  19  -6  36  17 /  80   0   0   0
Boise City OK              14  -6  39  18 /  60   0   0   0
Borger TX                  22   1  38  22 /  70  20   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              22   1  38  18 /  50  20   0   0
Canyon TX                  22   2  36  21 /  40  30   0   0
Clarendon TX               22   1  37  21 /  40  40   0   0
Dalhart TX                 18  -6  36  15 /  60   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  17  -6  37  18 /  80   0   0   0
Hereford TX                23  -1  36  21 /  40  30   0   0
Lipscomb TX                20  -3  34  19 /  80  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   20  -1  36  22 /  60  30   0   0
Shamrock TX                24   1  36  18 /  50  50   0   0
Wellington TX              24   4  36  20 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ004-
     005-010.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for TXZ001>014-016>018-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     OKZ001>003.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05