Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250025 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
725 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

For the 00Z TAFs, MVFR cigs are expected to persist at the
terminal sites tonight, improving to VFR Wednesday morning.
Gusty north winds are forecast to continue through most of
this forecast cycle.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022/

SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow night)...

Noteworthy items in the short term include the abundance of low
level moisture thanks to the beneficial rainfall over the last 24
hours. This has caused visibility restrictions this morning and
low level clouds. The latter of which will stick around for much
of today, and will result in temperatures struggling to even reach
the 60s for some locations. In fact, a couple locations in the far
northwest may not reach the 50s for a high. Beyond this, we have
seen and will continue to see areas of light rain/drizzle through
today and perhaps returning tomorrow in the far east. There is a
small chance for thunderstorms today in the south, but we are not
expecting much--if any--severe weather.

Further Details:
An H5 closed low is slowing making its way east over the Central
Plains from eastern parts of Colorado. Wrap around
moisture/showers are ongoing as of writing this, and will continue
across isolated areas through the afternoon hours. Very little
accumulation is expected. By this evening, the disturbance will
likely be too far east to have much influence across the
Panhandles as we lose the dynamics and the moisture through the
mid levels. This is in addition to the cold front well south of
our area. That said, we may hang on to some low clouds in areas
given the amount of rainfall we had. RH values overnight may not
drop below 80-90 percent. Fog will likely not be an issue given
the strength of the wind speeds overnight, but you may be able to
"feel" the moisture in the air in the morning as saturation
remains high.

For tomorrow, as the upper low continues to push east, we may have
another wrap around moisture setup that creates showers and
perhaps a couple isolated thunderstorms on the back side of the
low. This would favor the very far eastern parts of the
Panhandles. Forecast soundings indict a very moist sounding with
very weak lapse rates, so thunder is most likely a very low end
threat without any dynamics to modify the column. Otherwise, we
are looking at a breezy day tomorrow as the Panhandles sit
between a surface low to the northeast, and a surface high to the
south/southwest. This will start the day off with gradient driven
wind, but that relaxes and the low levels dry out which will
result in more of a mixing driven scenario in the afternoon given
the boundary layer lapse rates. Northerly winds around 25 mph are
expected in morning/afternoon with occasional gusts around 35
mph. The wind will die off after sunset. No fire weather concerns
at this time given the recent widespread plentiful rainfall and
mild temperatures.


LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday Night...

The extended will be pretty quite precipitation wise as we will be
trending warm on Thursday and Friday to hot over the weekend and
Monday as well.  The upper level trof that brought us beneficial rain
yesterday will be well off to the east and a building ridge will
bring a warmup in temperatures to the area.  As heights begin to
rise on Thursday we can expect a fairly pleasant day with light and
variable winds and temperatures in the lower to mid 80s across the
Panhandles. As the ridge shifts further east on Friday we will
continue to warm up and we`ll see temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s across the Panhandles.  Friday will have a caveat that
could eventually get showers/storms introduced, but for now still
going sub 15 pops for Friday.  With the center of the ridge just
east of the Rockies and very hot temperatures along the mountain
range, models are convecting some mountain showers Friday afternoon
and with a shortwave riding over that ridge axis, the models are
tracking and isolated storm or two over the Panhandles in the
evening.  Given the high based nature of the storm and the lift
associated, expect this to be mostly a wind threat.  But again, low
confidence currently keeps the pops below mention in the forecast.

Saturday the ridge axis will take a positive tilt as an upper level
trof moves into the Pacific Northwest. Flow will begin to shift more
southwest aloft and fairly hot temperatures will advect into our
area.  This trof will continue to deepen over the Great Basin area
Sunday into Monday and that will continue to drive south to
southwest flow over the area. With 850mb temps in the 30-33C range,
we can expect widespread heat across the Panhandles.  Highs will
be in the 90s to lower 100s on all three days, and would not be
surprised on Saturday and Sunday if some areas managed to get hot
enough for some heat highlights.



While we have received some very beneficial rain in the past 24
hours, and with a cool moist day today, the ERC`s are seeing some
signs of relief.  That being said, we are still in a transition
period, and while green up is certainly occurring in some areas,
other areas still have cured fuels attempting to transition to
green.  Therefore, given that these are 1 hour fuels and there`s
still some fuels that are not quite ready to go, we will likely have
critical Fire Weather on Saturday through Monday with very low RH
values and breezy to windy conditions.  The RFTI`s (mainly in the
central and west) will range from 4 to 7 with isolated 8`s possible.
This is enough to support critical Fire Weather conditions despite
the recent rains.  The good news is, given that we are currently in
some areas, and will be in others, trying to transition from cured
to green, the Fire Weather threat will be more of and IA situation
v.s. the threat of large fire growth.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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