Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191747
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.AVIATION...
18z TAF Issuance...VFR conditions are expected to remain for the
TAF period. Southerly winds will persist throughout the TAF
period with wind speeds ranging from 15-25 kts. Winds will be
gusty up to 30 kts this afternoon into the overnight hours. Sky
conditions are expected to be FEW becoming SCT during the
overnight/early morning hours. AMA may see SKC before becoming SCT
during the overnight hours.

Rutt

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018/

SHORT TERM...Today

A few low clouds may try to make a run at the southwest Texas
Panhandle this morning, but they should be short lived leaving most
of the day sunny.  Southerly winds will pick up into the 15 to 25
mph range with higher gusts as a surface lee-side trough strengthens
to our west.  High temperatures today should run some 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

LONG TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

An active start to the long term section of the forecast as a trough
translates eastward across the Rockies. South-southwesterly flow
will continue ahead of this trough pulling in moisture from a
tropical disturbance currently located in the Baja California
region while 850mb flow may also bring a bit of Gulf moisture
toward the Panhandles. Trough will provide plenty of forcing for
ascent across the region by Thursday afternoon and eventually push
a front through early Friday. Guidance is now in broad agreement
that this front will push through the CWA before settling well to
our southeast. While the front will be well through, isentropic
fields suggest that moist ascent will continue into Saturday, so
we may still see some decent rainfall out of this, especially in
our southeastern zones. As a result, continued the trend of
pushing largest QPF and PoPs further south and east. As for any
chance of severe storms, will need to continue to keep an eye on
Thursday as instability does look to be marginally supportive of
maybe a severe storm or two. Main limiting factor will be weak
shear profiles with the upper jet remaining to our north.
Instability will drop precipitously after the frontal passage, so
limited mentions of thunder after Friday morning.

Persistent flat ridge that has dominated our weather for the past
week does not look to return following the wave discussed
previously. As a result, a return to more seasonable temperatures
looks to be in the cards starting on Sunday. Sunday onward looks to
be mostly dry, with the exception being Monday night into Tuesday,
when a weak upper jet streak may force a few showers and storms
mainly across the far eastern Panhandles.

Ferguson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

23/16


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