192
FXUS64 KAMA 262316
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
616 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Weak upper level troughing continues east of our region during
the short term period. Meanwhile the upper ridge will build back
in and place itself firmly over the south central CONUS by the
start of the new week. At the surface, the wind direction will
mostly be southerly and speeds will be strong between 15-25 mph
sustained this afternoon. By this evening, a surface low positions
itself in southeast Colorado while a surface trough moves in from
the west into the combined Panhandles. By tomorrow, the trough
retreats back into New Mexico and the surface low stays anchored
to our northwest.

High temperatures for the next couple of days will remain in the
seasonal 90`s, and breezy southerly winds are forecast for
tomorrow as well. By or after midnight tonight, a few isolated showers
and thunderstorms may generate off of the incoming trough across
central portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A poor
CAPE environment and only modest moisture should disallow for any
organized convection tonight. A few storms may still pulse up and
produce frequent lightning. Plus, with decent shear in place, they
may be able to sustain for longer periods of time despite not
being very tall. Tomorrow is more or less the same in terms of
environmental parameters. A few isolated storms still cannot be
ruled out due to day time heating tomorrow afternoon and evening,
but only general thunder is expected.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Through the extended, the main upper level ridge builds over the
south central CONUS and spreads out as the days progress.
Dangerous heat is expected for the coming days. By Monday, we will
easily reach the low to mid 100`s and the triple digits will
stick around through the whole long term period. Heat Advisories
are likely and Excessive Heat Warnings are also a possibility,
since long range models and even the NBM itself forecast certain
areas to meet or exceed 110 degrees. The Palo Duro Canyon in
particular will experience the hottest temperatures throughout the
whole week, especially on days where surface winds are either
light or southeasterly. PoPs remain very low through the whole
extended. A stable atmosphere will not permit much thunderstorm
activity next week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast package. A
thunderstorm has developed just north of the KAMA airport, for
which VCTS is in the TAFs until 01z. Can`t rule out an additional
thunderstorm overnight tonight for KAMA, or in the afternoon hours
tomorrow. Have left additional thunderstorm mentions out of the
TAFs for now given low confidence.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  96  71 100 /  10  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  66  95  69 102 /  10  10  10   0
Boise City OK              64  94  67 100 /  10  10  10   0
Borger TX                  70 100  74 105 /  10   0  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              67  98  72 104 /  10   0  10   0
Canyon TX                  66  94  68  99 /  10  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               66  94  69  99 /  10  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 64  96  67 102 /  10  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  66  95  68 101 /  10   0  10   0
Hereford TX                66  96  69 101 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                67  95  71 100 /  10  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   66  94  69  99 /  10  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                66  95  69  99 /  10  10  10   0
Wellington TX              67  97  71 101 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...52