Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 250803
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
303 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...Memorial Day through Tomorrow Night.
Current WV satellite reveals large scale upper trough over the
Rockies extending southward over NM/TX with two distinct waves in
resulting cyclonic flow pattern - the first over west central TX
and the second over SW CO. At the surface, a cold front is pushing
south through the Panhandles with a few showers and thunderstorms
occurring as lift occurs above the post-frontal cold dome.

For Memorial Day, expect the front to push south of the CWA early,
with widespread cloudiness in the wake of this feature. Given
expected cloud cover and northerly winds, have reduced high
temperatures to the low end of consensus blends. With the west
central TX wave lifting northeastward into OK tempering overall lift
via DNVA and the SW CO wave moving over NE NM trying to enhance lift
DPVA, very uncertain precipitation forecast. 300/305K isentropic
fields suggest descent will be dominant, with latest CAM runs
generally reducing shower coverage as well. Have thus tried to
reduce PoPs compared to previous forecast. The post frontal regime
will also markedly reduce instability, with progged MUCAPE values
tomorrow afternoon either near zero or, in the case of the
southeastern TX Panhandle, around 500-750 J/kg. However, despite
these aggregate values, model soundings in this area show a very
skinny CAPE profile. Have thus reduced thunder mentions to a slight
chance and think there is only a very low chance for a severe
thunderstorm in our southeast, so have removed severe mentions from
the grids.

Tuesday, the upper trough moves over the Plains with the well
advertised N TX upper low setting up to our southeast. Guidance has
generally trended downward with wrap around moisture for our
southeast, so have reduced PoPs a bit. Additionally, given the
downward trend in overall cloud cover, have kept consensus
temperatures for Tuesday as well.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

The extended period continues to trend drier for the Panhandles
as medium range guidance has come into better agreement. Guidance
is also trending a bit warmer, but keep high temperatures below
average. The high temperatures hinge on the extend of cloud cover
and the cloud cover/precipitation chances hinge on the position of
the aforementioned closed cutoff low forming over north TX. The
latest trends have been shifting the low further and further east
across the Red River, placing the Panhandles on the backside under
north to northeast flow aloft.

Negative 700mb theta-E air sourced from the Rocky Mountains can
be seen being pulled south across the Panhandles and wrapping
around the low Wed into Thurs, which does not bode well for
precipitation chances. That being said, a few waves of wrap-around
moisture may move into the eastern Panhandles Wednesday which
could support a few showers. Thunderstorms are unlikely given very
little to no instability.

On Thursday, while the cutoff low shifts into northeast TX, a
northern stream trough traverses the northern plains. Models
suggest this trough will promote a weak cold front moving into the
area Thursday or Thursday night. With moisture and instability
fields looking slightly better Thursday ahead of the front, have
kept mention of thunderstorms for eastern and central parts of the
FA.

Going towards the end of the week into the weekend, the 250mb
pattern becomes more amplified with an omega block taking shape.
Long range models all agree that a stout ridge of high pressure
will reside over the central CONUS by the weekend. There is
disagreement on the fate of the cutoff low, with the GFS holding
on to it over TX into the weekend. EC and CMC move the cutoff low
east, which results in a stronger 500mb high (590 dam) over the
southern plains by Sunday. Thus, much warmer temperatures are
probably on the way going into the weekend.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  49  73  52  74 /  50  20  10  20  10
Beaver OK                  64  50  74  53  76 /  50  10  20  10  10
Boise City OK              60  44  74  49  79 /  40   5  10   5   5
Borger TX                  64  51  76  54  78 /  40  10  10  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              62  47  78  51  80 /  40  10  10  10  10
Canyon TX                  62  48  74  51  74 /  50  30  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               67  53  73  54  74 /  40  40  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 61  43  76  49  79 /  30   5  10  10   5
Guymon OK                  62  48  75  51  77 /  40   5  10  10   5
Hereford TX                62  47  76  51  77 /  50  20  10  10   5
Lipscomb TX                65  52  73  54  76 /  40  10  20  20  20
Pampa TX                   62  50  72  53  74 /  40  10  20  20  20
Shamrock TX                68  53  73  55  75 /  40  30  30  30  30
Wellington TX              70  55  73  55  76 /  50  40  30  30  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

77/7



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