Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 182322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Few to scattered clouds
around 10k ft for DHT and AMA for the first three hours then
mostly clear skies for the rest of the period. Some isolated
thunderstorms may be possible in our outlook area, however
confidence is very low for whether any of the terminals will be
affected. If an isolated thunderstorm does happen to occur near a
terminal it will not last long, therefore they have been left out
of the TAFs.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 517 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018/


Main takeaways for this forecast package include heat the next few
days, and weak to sometimes marginally severe thunderstorm
chances. Heat advisory will be needed for tomorrow, the question
remains to what extend regarding counties. The Canyon will be an
almost guarantee, but we may need to spread to other "on
Caprock" counties. Looking ahead, we may transition to a more
definitive severe weather state come next week when wind fields
suggest better chances for "stronger" updrafts, albeit this may be
on the low end for severe weather. Next week (beginning Sunday
night) we also have a chance for a wetter period developing.
Perhaps its better to say above normal chances for rainfall, but
of course this is all relative seeing we typically do not see much
rain in July. Beginning Monday, analogs for 72 Hour rainfall
amounts are hinting at an inch in some locations. Take that we
caution from the bigger picture standpoint.

Last nights thunderstorms worked the atmosphere over pretty well,
and the boundary that retreated is somewhat unnoticeable via surface
observation. Some semblance of a stalled boundary to the north but
overall nothing too concerning regarding resurgence of thunderstorms
this afternoon. With the lack of upper level support, convective
temperatures should not help yield thunderstorms either. Therefore
have decreased thunderstorm chances across the area (mainly north)
to 14% with no mention of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
This begins our lull in precipitation the next few periods. Thursday
and Friday afternoon there will be thunderstorms chances across the
north in association with mostly daytime heating, and it doesn`t
look like severe weather is likely. Some storms could produce gusty
winds and isolated heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings suggest high
based thunderstorms, with dry conditions below (inverted-v), and
these are very typically for isolated downburst situation as we have
seen lately. This of course is like playing "whack-a-mole" guessing
which storm will pop up and then collapse producing strong winds.

Climate Prediction Center is outlooking an area which includes the
Panhandles for above normal chances of precipitation. Precipitable
water values fit nicely into this category as well seeing forecast
soundings are suggesting values near climatological max. Its very
far out, and its hard to latch on to anything regarding heavy
rainfall given the ridge encompassing the area through early next
week. That being said, we have seen some decent rainfall in some
areas as of lately with a ridge dominating the overall pattern.
Convective temperatures, with mid levels dynamics, and small
pieces of energy aloft have helped produce thunderstorms, so not
too inclined to dismiss these chances for next week. One change
coming next week is the chance for stronger updrafts given the
overall shear. Effective shear in the afternoons lately has been
minimal, but this could change towards the later end of this
forecast package.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Palo Duro Canyon.




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