309
FXUS64 KAMA 091921
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
221 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Quiet weather will continue this afternoon through Tuesday night
across the Panhandles. Temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s
are forecast both days with breezy southerly winds.

Very weak H500 flow is forecast to remain across much of the
southern CONUS through Tuesday. This type of synoptic pattern will
continue the trend of warm temperatures across the Southern High
Plains. So far this afternoon, temperatures have warmed up into
the mid to upper 80s with winds out of the west gusting up to 20
to 30 mph. Highs are forecast to be into the upper 80s to low 90s
for the Panhandles this afternoon. Another day of showers and
storms are forecast to form across northern New Mexico but should
stay well to the west of the forecast area today given northerly
flow. Very similar conditions are forecast for Tuesday, with highs
in the 90s with southerly winds. With hardly any changes in the
steering flow, any showers or storms that form across NM/CO should
stay west of the forecast area once again on Tuesday evening.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue late
this week into the weekend. Highs will mostly be in the 90s with a
few locations potentially hitting the triple digit mark once
again.

The weak upper level flow looks to persist through the rest of
this work week. High temperatures in the 90s are likely with
southerly surface winds and H850 temperatures rising into the mid
to upper 20s Celsius each day. As of the 09/12z model data, Friday
appears to be the hottest day of the next seven days. In fact, the
latest NBM probabilities have a 50-70 percent chance of reaching
100 for locations along the Canadian River Valley and the
eastern/southeastern Texas Panhandle. These temperatures look to
be close to the record highs, but are currently not forecast to
break the records. In any case, the temperatures will be well
above average the rest of this week into this weekend. The upper
level pattern will not support widespread precipitation chances
across the region, especially with now tropical storm Francine
(forecast to be hurricane Francine) projected to move towards far
eastern Texas and southern Louisiana.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024

VFR conditions will continue with this TAF cycle. Winds will
remain out of the south with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts at the sites
before 00z. Clear skies are very likely over the next 24 hours.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                59  91  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  60  92  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              57  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  61  96  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              58  93  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  57  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               55  89  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 55  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  58  93  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                57  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                59  92  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   58  90  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                55  89  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              55  90  55  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05