Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 210911
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
311 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow...

Current water vapor satellite shows a large scale upper trough over
the Piedmont, an upper low off the California coast, and upper
ridging between these features over the southern Rockies. At the
surface, high pressure is present from W TX into IL as heights build
in the wake of the eastern trough. Resultant light winds have
combined with mostly clear skies to allow temperatures to drop into
the teens across the CWA early this morning.

Today, as the surface high shifts eastward and lee surface troughing
occurs over NE NM/SE CO, expect surface winds to become
southwesterly by the afternoon hours. With this downslope flow in
place, have bumped highs a bit above consensus, with highs mainly in
the 50s expected today. For tonight, expect light southwesterly
breeze to continue as clouds overspread the Panhandles from the
west. Given these suboptimal radiative cooling conditions, have
bumped up lows a bit accordingly.

For Saturday, as the upper low moves over S CA, flow aloft over the
forecast area will become southwesterly while low level winds remain
largely southerly. GFS/NAM/CMC depict a lead disturbance in this
flow approaching our west after 18z. Combined with marginal moisture
advection via the southerly low level winds, some rain before 00z is
not entirely out of the question for the southwestern Texas
Panhandle. Have thus retained the weak mention of rain late Saturday
afternoon.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...

Models and ensembles in reasonably good agreement through Sunday,
with differences emerging thereafter.  Closed mid-level low moves
from southern California to near 4-corners Saturday night.  Low
expected to move across northern parts of Combined Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening.  Chances for
rain showers increase during the day on Sunday, especially across
northern sections where large-scale ascent expected to be stronger
with deepening low.  Have included mention of thunder across
north and northeast sections Sunday and Sunday night owing to
expected increased instability and presence of convergence zones.

Appears that Pacific cold front will pass from west to east across
Panhandles by mid-afternoon Sunday, with polar cold front moving
in from the north during the afternoon and early evening.  Windy
conditions are expected on Sunday as gradients tighten with
deepening low.  Winds expected to remain breezy to windy Sunday
night following passage of polar front.  Chances for
precipitation continue Sunday night across mainly north and
northeast sections, with light snow possibly mixing in over the
western Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northwest Texas Panhandle.
No measurable snow is expected.

Monday expected to be sunny and mild.  Next series of shortwave
trofs pass in northwest flow Monday night and Tuesday.
Reinforcing cold surge with initial shortwave arrives Monday
evening, leading to colder conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.  Low
pops for light precipitation have been retained Monday night and
Tuesday over mainly northern sections, with the potential for
light snow to mix in.  Warmer conditions expected on Thursday. 03

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase Sunday and are expected to remain higher than
usual Sunday night. South and southwest winds will shift to west
by mid-afternoon following the passage of a Pacific cold front. A
polar cold front will soon follow, shifting winds to the north
during the late afternoon and evening. Briefly elevated fire
weather conditions may develop Sunday afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, with
the potential for lightning to cause fire starts. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  35  62  46  64 /   0   0  10  10  40
Beaver OK                  53  30  62  41  66 /   0   0   0  20  70
Boise City OK              54  30  60  38  58 /   0   0   0  20  60
Borger TX                  54  35  65  47  67 /   0   0   5  10  50
Boys Ranch TX              55  34  64  44  65 /   0   0  10  10  40
Canyon TX                  52  34  63  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  30
Clarendon TX               51  34  62  45  67 /   0   0   5  10  40
Dalhart TX                 54  30  61  40  61 /   0   0   5  20  40
Guymon OK                  55  29  60  40  64 /   0   0   0  20  60
Hereford TX                51  34  63  44  64 /   0   0  10  10  30
Lipscomb TX                52  32  62  44  66 /   0   0   0  20  60
Pampa TX                   51  34  62  45  66 /   0   0   5  10  50
Shamrock TX                50  32  60  43  67 /   0   0   5  10  50
Wellington TX              50  33  61  44  69 /   0   0   0   5  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

77/03


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