Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272313
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
513 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

A cold front is currently barreling towards the OK Panhandle from
the north and should be on the stateline in roughly an hour from
this writing. This front will shift winds to the north around 20
to 25 mph with gusts between 30 and 40 mph. The strongest winds
post front are expected to be in the east. Temperatures will be on
the downward trend with overnight temperatures expected to drop
well below freezing. Despite lower Td`s behind the front the
colder temperatures will help RH values recover to around 60
percent. Winds are expected to subside going into the late morning
hours tomorrow with the center of the surface high centered over
the combined Panhandles.

With the surface high and light winds Wednesday afternoon
temperatures are only expected to rise into the lower 50s.
However, with the lower Tds behind the front RH values are
expected to drop into the teens once again. Thankfully, the light
winds will stick around Wed into Wed night. An H5 shortwave
trough will begin to traverse the area Wed night into early
Thursday bringing some chances for the southern Texas Panhandle,
primarily in the late morning hours Thu.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

A cutoff H5 low is expected to be located on the southern tip of
CA Wed morning. This low is progged to travel northeast into the
combined Panhandles by Thursday morning, but should be an open
wave by this time. This system is expected to bring with it shot
at some precipitation to the southern TX Panhandle going into Thu
morning. Due to below freezing overnight temperature this
precipitation could possibly be snow. However, with such warm
temperatures recently accumulations on the surface should be
limited with little to no impacts from accumulations at this time.

Winds are expected to return to the southwest Thursday. However,
the shortwave trough moving through early Thu is to bring a pocket
of cold air with H85 temperatures potentially below freezing.
Thanks to the this the southwesterly winds will not aid in much of
a warm up with afternoon highs staying in the 50s.

As the shortwave exits H85 temperatures will start to warm and
overnight lows going into Fri are expected to be above freezing
for much of the southern Panhandles. Going into Friday day,
slight ridging will occur overhead with a surface trough forming
over the combined Panhandles. H85 temperatures are progged to warm
back into the 15 to 18 degree C range and afternoon temperatures
should be well back into the 70s, approaching 80 off the Caprock.

Sat and Sun will see similar afternoon temperatures and above
average overnight lows. The main concern these days will be warm
temps coupling with low relative humidity around 9-10 percent will
lead to potential critical fire weather conditions once again.
Sunday. A cold front is progged to come in from the northwest
sometime late Sunday with the next upper level trough. This should
bring highs back down in the 50s for early next week.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Winds remain gusty across the combined Panhandles. A cold front
has already moved through KGUY bring winds to the north. The front
is now crossing KDHT as of this writing. KAMA should see a
wind shift to the north right around 00Z Wed if not shortly
after. VFR conditions are expected with winds to continue around
20 kts possibly gusting to 30 kts behind this front, with winds
subsiding even more after 06Z. Some current wildfires may produce
some haze or slightly reduced vis due to smoke. However,
confidence is too low to put into TAFs at this time. KAMA is the
most likely to need an amendment if further impacts are expected.

36

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to
return this coming weekend. Sat RFTIs could be has high as 4 to 5
in the western combined Panhandles. Then on Sunday more widespread
5 to 7 RFTIs could be present for much of the combined Panhandles
as RH values drop below 10 percent.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                27  52  31  52 /   0   0  10  40
Beaver OK                  23  53  29  55 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              21  52  31  53 /  10   0   0  10
Borger TX                  29  56  33  56 /   0   0   0  30
Boys Ranch TX              27  55  31  56 /   0   0  10  40
Canyon TX                  28  52  31  53 /   0   0  10  40
Clarendon TX               31  52  32  52 /   0   0  10  40
Dalhart TX                 21  52  28  53 /   0   0   0  20
Guymon OK                  21  53  31  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                27  54  31  55 /   0   0  20  50
Lipscomb TX                24  53  29  52 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   26  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  30
Shamrock TX                30  53  31  52 /   0   0   0  30
Wellington TX              33  53  31  52 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>003-
     006>018-317.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ004-005-019-020.

OK...High Wind Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ001.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for OKZ001>003.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36


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