Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018


For the 06Z TAFs:

Terminals are in MVFR (minus DHT for the moment) and will be in
VFR for the next few hours. Thereafter, terminals will likely go
to IFR or close to it for low ceilings and reduced visibility.
Lower levels in the atmosphere are still very saturated, so
confidence is somewhat high for at least MVFR conditions for the
next several hours into early/mid morning before clouds break. VFR
conditions are expected later today (mid/late morning).



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 845 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

Updated to add isolated showers in the northwest. Guidance is showing
some precipitation caused by outer remnants of the Low pressure
system that has moved on to the east. Also, there are 20 plus dBz
echoes on radar consistent with light rain at the surface. No
changes to later periods, updated text products will be issued


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

Some low CIGs linger as a Low pressure system moves of to the
east. A northerly wind will calm down to around 10 kts going into
the 00Z TAF period. Later in the overnight hours conditions could
drop to IFR and LIFR for KGUY and KAMA especially before sunrise.
DHT should stay mostly MVFR but could drop to IFR. Some fog may
become an issue for KAMA and KGUY for the predawn hours, however
confidence is low at this time and therefore left out of the TAFs.
Fog may need to be added in future issuances.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

Large scale trough lingers over the Panhandles this evening. Some
stray showers continue across the eastern Panhandles. Showers have
been slow moving, so moderate amounts of rain will still be
possible for those areas that the showers reach. Models trying to
generate some convection along the northwest Panhandles this
evening. Soundings indicate this area should be fairly capped, but
there are some cloud breaks along the western Panhandles, and that
might be just enough for rapid heating to reach the convective
temperature. However, given that the area is under a large region
of subsidence it might be difficult to overcome and get storms.
For now have left storms out of the forecast for this evening.

Tonight things will begin to quiet down precipitation wise, but do
expect the return of low clouds, as light north winds will be in
place and temperatures have been pretty close to the dewpoints all
day, it wont take much for low level saturation to occur tonight.
Patch fog has been mentioned shortly after sunset through a little
after sunrise tomorrow.

After the morning low clouds/fog breaks on Sunday, expect a mostly
sunny day, with highs in the 60s, and light winds. Might be a bit
on the cool side through noon to a little after, but should be
quite mild for the afternoon and evening.

Models continue to agree that northwest flow aloft will continue
through Tuesday, when the next system arrives. At this point the
models diverge on solutions quite drastically, putting a high
amount of uncertainty on the extended forecast. Thusly, will not
go into great detail for the extended. Overall, have a chance of
showers and storms from Tuesday through Friday in the forecast.
Tuesday and Wednesday`s highs will be a bit cool, as we expect a
cold front to push south through the Panhandles. Highs will be in
the upper 50s to upper 60s. Thursday and Friday should be on a
warming trend with highs in the 70s. Again, there is a lot of
uncertainty in the extended forecast, and it probably will not
rain/storm every day Tue-Fri, this will be fine tuned with the
next several forecast packages. The best blend with what the
models are giving is the current forecast at hand.


Challenging CIG forecast on tap and confidence is somewhat low.
Generally seeing CIGs raising the last few hours but still
holding onto IFR levels in the east with improvement to MVFR
across the west. How quickly conditions improve to MVFR from west
to east and then whether and how quickly IFR CIGs redevelop
overnight is problematic. Generally when with the model consensus
that shows brief break in IFR conditions this aftn to MVFR or even
VFR, with redevelopment of IFR conditions overnight (around or
shortly after midnight). Confidence in timing of the onset of IFR
conditions is somewhat low, but gave it best shot. Didn`t want to
be too pessimistic, but VLIFR is certainly possible all sites
mainly do to low CIGs esp around sunrise. Should see VFR by late


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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