Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Cold front moved through Guymon and Dalhart by 05Z, and moved
through Amarillo around 07Z. Winds just behind the front increased
to around 15 knots or so, yet quickly dropped back to around 10
knots as the front continued to move southward. Not much in the
way of cloud cover before sunrise, or expecting much in the way of
clouds this morning. By this afternoon, do expect cloud cover to
be on the increase, and rain chances will slowly increase as well.

Short term guidance continues to show some showers and/or
thunderstorms possible across the Texas panhandle by late this
afternoon, and especially this evening. Some CAMs suggest a
thunderstorm or two as early as 22-23Z, yet most guidance is
relatively consistent in not bringing widespread showers to the
terminals until 00Z or later. Lowest ceilings and best chance for
thunderstorms appears to be in the 02-04Z timeframe tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 228 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019/

As we approach sunrise, the cold front will likely have made its
way south of the Texas Panhandle continuing into the Texas south
Plains. Somewhere along a line from around Lubbock northeast into
parts of SW and central Oklahoma, the front will stall or become
quasi-stationary. In-conjunction with this surface feature, an
upper level low pressure currently centered near Las Vegas, NV
will continue to move southeast into northern Mexico throughout
the day. Downstream of the upper level feature, moisture should
slowly advect north and northeastward into the Panhandles.
Winds will initially be a bit gusty behind the passing cold front
but will diminish as we go through the day. In fact, downstream
of the main upper level feature, latest hi-res model cross
sections shows mean layered winds up to around 400 hPa averaging
at or under 20 kts going further into today and into tomorrow
morning. In-conjunction with increasing moisture throughout the
column, this may set the stage for slow moving, or training areas
of rainfall or thunderstorms. The main factor here is how far
south does the cold front make it today. More unstable air ahead
of the cold front with diurnal heating will generate showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. If the front stalls out closer to
the Panhandles, storm generated along the cold front may ride the
convergence boundary slowly northeast into the Panhandles. Some
areas across the far southern Texas Panhandle may see some
stronger storms this afternoon closer to the stalled cold front,
but should be rather benign compared to areas in the Texas South
Plains where instability and lift values will be greater. High
temperatures today will range from the mid 60s in the west to mid
70s in the east.

The main take away for today into tonight with the abundant deep
moisture and weak steering flow is slow moving and/or training
rainfall and thunderstorms is possible. This may result in
localized heavy rainfall and flooding, especially for parts of
the southern and southeastern Texas Panhandle near the stalled
front through tomorrow morning. Please exercise caution and plan
accordingly if areas become flooded.

The main upper level feature by tomorrow will continue to move
slowly to the east across northern Mexico and become more of an
open wave. This wave will continue to stream moisture northward
downstream of the main axis and provide additional chances of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on Tuesday. As the
wave becomes more positive tilted late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as the main axis shifts east over far west
Texas, the main stream of moisture transport will shift northeast
across northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. With the exception
of a few showers for the far southeast TX Panhandle, most areas
should begin to dry out going into Wednesday. After a cool and
rainy day with highs in the 50s for Tuesday, temperatures will
rebound to near average as we go into Wednesday.

Continuing into the remainder of the forecast period, upper level
winds will shift to more northwesterly where perturbations in the
mean flow may ride southeast from the Rockies and bring
additional chances of thunderstorms by this coming weekend across
the northern combined Panhandles. Otherwise, most areas will
remain dry. Temperatures will rebound nicely starting mid week
into the weekend where light surface winds will eventually become
more established out of the SW with downsloping allowing
temperatures to rebound to well above average by this coming



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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