Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 021126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
526 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all three TAF sites
through 12Z Wednesday. Southwest to south winds 5 to 15 knots
increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 25 knots after 20Z
to 22Z today and then diminishing again to around 10 to 20 knots
after 00Z Wednesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 156 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night

An upper ridge will prevail across the Panhandles today through
Wednesday and Wednesday night providing the forecast area with
warmer and continued dry conditions today through Wednesday night.
Skies are expected to remain mainly clear except for possibly some
high level clouds.

A surface trough to the lee of the Rockies today across eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico will deepen and allow for
increasing southwesterly winds near 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts
over the western and northern parts of the forecast area with
mainly 10 to 20 mph or 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts across
the remainder of the Panhandles. A surface low in southeastern
Colorado tonight will track south into northeastern New Mexico
Wednesday and allow for a cold front to drop southeast into the
Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northwest Texas Panhandle. With
the frontal boundary in the vicinity of the Panhandles Wednesday,
the pressure gradient should be more relaxed and the winds much


LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday night...

Thursday into Friday there will be a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms with the next upper level system to impact the
combined Panhandles, mainly the northeast half. Winter weather
will not be expected with this system as temperatures will be warm
in comparison with most recent events. Friday will be cooler with
a slight warming trend through the rest of the period.

Wednesday evening a closed H5 low pressure system will come on
shore in southern CA. This low is progged to propagate NE and end
up over CO by Thur afternoon. There will be some PVA with
divergence aloft down stream of the trough axis that will
introduce some showers and possibly thunderstorms over the FA Thur
afternoon into evening. A surface low will set up in SE CO during
the afternoon as well with a surface trough extending southward.
This surface trough will create a pseudo-dryline down the center
of the forecast area mid afternoon, separating dewpoints in the
teens to the west from mid to upper 30s to the east. MLCAPE east
of this boundary will be in the 100 to 400 J/Kg range adding the
possibility of some thunderstorms, mainly in the far eastern
combined Panhandles. This instability will move east out of the
area late Friday night as the Pacific front propagates east as the
surface low moves to the southeast.

The H5 low will start to take a southeasterly track with some
moisture wrap around keeping light showers possible into early
Friday. As the surface low moves off to the southeast winds will
shift to the north with an associated cold front early morning.
Going into the afternoon winds will be increasing into the 20 to
25 mph range as the pressure gradient tightens up behind the
front. These northerly winds will keep Friday a bit cooler, in the
mid 50s, compared to the upper 60s and lower 70s on Thursday

Saturday, slight ridging will occur once this system Thursday
night into Friday leaves the area. Expecting afternoon
temperatures to return to the 60s on Saturday then lower 70s on
Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will trend warmer going into
Monday as well with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the
area Monday morning.




A surface trough to the lee of the Rockies today across eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico will deepen and allow for
downsloping southwesterly 20 foot winds to increase to around 15
to 20 mph or 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 35 mph this
afternoon. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be as
low as 7 to 10 percent. Max RFTI values today will be near 2 to 3
from the western and southwestern Texas Panhandle north and
northeast across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles. The
RFTIs today will be primarily relative humidity-driven. Will call
for elevated fire weather conditions today from around 12 PM to 6
PM for the Oklahoma Panhandle and all but the eastern and
southeastern Texas Panhandle.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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