852
FXUS63 KEAX 301717
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Precipitation expected through the holiday weekend across eastern
  Kansas and far western Missouri. Rain chances diminish farther east.

* Cooler conditions expected next week, with the coolest
  conditions expected Wednesday night - Thursday when
  temperatures will be 15- 20 degrees F below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The central US remains a battle ground through the holiday weekend
between low pressure over central South Dakota and high pressure
entrenched across the Great Lakes.  Upper jet located on the
northern periphery of upper ridge centered across west Texas will
help guide the area of low pressure southeast today through Monday;
however, dry air originating from the ridge over the Great Lakes
will limit the eastward extent of instability and precipitation
through the weekend. Slowed pops progression into eastern Kansas
into far western Missouri into the afternoon hours today, with
greater coverage tonight into Sunday. Locations that remain
precipitation free will warm nicely into the mid and potentially
upper 80s today, while clouds and precipitation will keep
temperatures farther west near or just above 80 F.  With clouds and
precipitation, expect temperatures to remain near seasonal norms or
just above tonight in the mid 60s.

Low pressure will be relatively slow moving through the weekend
leading to additional chances of showers with embedded thunderstorms
on Sunday into Monday. Showers will be most numerous across eastern
Kansas into western Missouri and areas west as ridge to the east
will effectively block the disturbance from migrating east.
Eventually, the system is expected to shift south as upper level
ridge re-orients farther west and flow on the east side of the ridge
becomes more oriented north/south.

Fairly strong upper level disturbance is expected to build southeast
into the Great Lakes region mid-week.  Cold front associated with
this system is expected to arrive on Wednesday, leading to an early
taste of fall late week with moderating temperatures towards
seasonal averages next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Rain showers
move into northeastern KS and northwestern MO this afternoon.
This will mainly affect the STJ terminal. Precipitation chances
diminish further south and west. So have kept a PROB30 group for
late this afternoon and early this evening. Better chances move
into the area late tonight and early tomorrow morning so have
added a prevailing group to account for that. Winds look light
through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB