243
FXUS64 KOHX 040605
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
105 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

- Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through this weekend

- Low chance (20-40%) rain late Monday through Wednesday

- Cooler temperatures late week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A surface ridge continues to push its influence across Middle TN. We
enjoyed lower humidity this afternoon as drier air has continued to
advect in over the last 48 hours. PWAT values are now down a total
of 0.20" since Wednesday with a measured value of 0.89" on the
00Z OHX sounding. To our south, a disturbance sits over the gulf
that is resulting in an expansive area of clouds that builds north
over Alabama and east TN, so expect some high level cloudiness
across the eastern half of the CWA tonight. Overnight lows will be
in the mid to upper 50s with areas of patchy fog.

Saturday`s forecast will be more or less the same as today`s except
we may see a slight increase in dew points as winds turn out of the
ESE, pulling moisture into the area. Temperatures will nudge a
few degrees warmer, too, with afternoon highs in the low to mid
80s. Saturday night looks great with lows near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

We will see another surge in moisture Sunday ahead of a pattern
shift as mid-level flow takes a southeasterly turn and increases
to near 15 kts. Monday will feature our first chance of rain for
the week, though chances remain low around 20-30% as uncertainty
remains in how much umph the front lifting from the gulf will have
by the time it makes it here. Troughing developing out west will
start pushing in by Tuesday, and with the surge in moisture
coupled with daytime heating, we will have better chances for
showers and storms. Coverage and intensity are still questionable
as forcing doesn`t look all that great. A cold front will push
through the area sometime late Tuesday/early Wednesday that will
bring a better, more widespread chance of rain to all of Middle
TN. Again though, the better forcing will be well off to the north
as the trough moves through, and this will likely result in
lower-than-we`d-like rainfall totals. Ensembles right now are
currently only yielding a half inch or less between Tuesday and
Wednesday. GEFS 1 inch or greater probabilities right now is only
at 20%, so currently, these showers aren`t looking like the
drought-busting type. What we will be able to enjoy, though, is
cooler, more seasonal temperatures behind the front as afternoon
highs drop into the mid to low 70s after Wednesday. A few post
frontal showers will linger, but things look to dry out for the
most part by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions forecast across Middle TN airfields through this
TAF period. Winds should favor a SE direction for the upcoming
afternoon at 5-8 kts.

Note: Erroneous observations are suspected at SRB due to a
possible sensor obstruction. Web cam feed at the airfield shows
clear conditions despite 1/4 SM being reported.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  60  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    86  59  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     78  55  78  60 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       84  59  85  65 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     81  58  82  63 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      79  55  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   82  59  84  63 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   84  60  85  65 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        84  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Sizemore