737
FXUS64 KOHX 052332
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
532 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Low to medium chances for light precipitation on Sunday.

- Continued below-normal temperatures are forecast through the
  next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Weak surface high pressure will build over the region today into
tomorrow with mainly zonal flow aloft. With high pressure building
in we are seeing strong substance at 900 mb. This is keeping low
level moisture in place and our low clouds. The back edge of the
clouds are just off to our northwest and the question will be how
far east does that push. The thinking is we will scatter out for a
time this afternoon over our far northwest counties but remain
locked in the clouds elsewhere. Will have to keep an eye on
trends. It will be cool today with highs only in the lower 40s.
Overnight stratus is likely and this will limit our dense fog
potential but we will still see some reduction in visibility.
Overnight lows will be cold in the mid 20s to lower 30s. If any
areas do see dense fog it would be freezing fog and could cause
some slick spots but this does look unlikely for tonight. Winds
become southerly tomorrow and that will help us warm some with
highs pushing back into the mid 40s to lower 50s. The cloud cover
will mostly likely stick around throughout the day but we may see
some breaks in the afternoon but confidence is low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

An upper level trough will dig out of the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes on Sunday. This will continue southerly flow and warm
highs a few more degrees pushing them into the low to mid 50s.
The majority of the forcing with this system will remain to our
north but it will push a cold front into our area later in the day
Sunday into early Monday. This will bring a low to medium chance
for light showers. The precip type is a little more
straightforward with this system as temperatures aloft will be
below freezing, won`t have to worry about freezing rain or sleet.
Most of the precip will fall as a cold rain but can`t rule out
some snow flakes mixing in Sunday night as surface temperatures
fall. Accumulation looks very unlikely with the NBM only putting
10-20% chance of a dusting I-40 north.

We dry out by Monday afternoon with cold air building in behind
the front. Highs Monday fall back into the low to mid 40s. Broad
high pressure builds over the east US Tuesday warming us back into
the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper level trough will dig out of
Canada into the Great Lakes mid to late week. This will bring low
rain chances but there is quite a bit of uncertainty on timing
and placement of this trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A large swath of IFR cigs currently overlays Middle TN terminals
this evening with LIFR cigs around 005-004 noted downstream. The
LIFR cloud deck will move in overnight and all terminals will see
another drop of a few hundred ft in cigs. Hazy conditions will
persist overnight, too, though thick cloud cover should mitigate
dense fog development. Models across the board are showing a
gradual rise to MVFR after ~12Z, and western terminals may see a
return to VFR cigs by Saturday afternoon. CSV and SRB are unlikely
to return to VFR thresholds this taf cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      30  48  35  53 /   0   0   0  20
Clarksville    28  47  34  52 /   0  10   0  20
Crossville     29  45  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       29  50  32  54 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     29  45  31  50 /   0   0   0  20
Jamestown      28  45  29  48 /   0   0   0  20
Lawrenceburg   30  49  32  53 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   29  49  31  53 /   0   0   0  20
Waverly        28  47  34  52 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Baggett