040
FXUS64 KOHX 010102
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
702 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 702 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Our precipitation chances will resume Monday afternoon and will
  continue into Tuesday. Storm total QPF values range from 0.5" to
  1" across Middle Tennessee.

- There are low to medium chances for light snowfall accumulations
  mainly north of I-40 Monday night and early Tuesday, especially
  northwest Middle Tennessee. Chances for 1" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures will remain below seasonal norms for the next
  several days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The bitter cold has returned to middle Tennessee, with
temperatures right now in the 30s, but the wind chill makes it
feel much cooler outside. Dry conditions, for now, across the
area. forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 928 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold front is currently making its way across Middle Tennessee,
having already cleared the Nashville Metro Area but still west of
the Cumberland Plateu. There are a few light echoes showing up on
radar, and some patchy drizzle (mainly ahead of the boundary)
that isn`t showing up. Post-frontal temperatures have dropped
agonizingly close to freezing, and are lagging behind the
previous hourly grids. So, I`ve re-populated with the most recent
(14Z) CONSShort, which seems much more representative, and lowered
our daytime maximum temperatures accordingly. We can expect
partial clearing in some locations later this afternoon, but we
won`t get much of a break, because the next active weather system
will begin spreading precipitation into Middle Tennessee tomorrow
afternoon as an inverted trough, attached to a surface low moving
onshore from the Gulf, develops over the region. Meanwhile,
overnight lows tonight will drop into the 20s areawide, but we`ll
at least warm into the 40s by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1032 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The aforementioned surface low is expected to race from near MOB
at 06Z Tuesday to near Cape Hatteras 9 hours later. The low track
will be far enough south and east of Middle Tennessee that
sufficient cold air should enable at least light snowfall
accumulations across northern portions of Middle Tennessee, and
especially our northwest (i.e., Clarksville, Waverly, Dover)
Monday night and Tuesday morning. However, the probability of
measuring an inch or more is very low (<20%). Therefore, at this
time, we do not anticipate having to issue any advisories for
wintry precipitation. Due to the speed of the surface low, our
rain chances should all be gone by 18Z Tuesday, and high pressure
will then dominate the middle part of next week, although
temperatures are likely to remain below seasonal norms throughout
the 7-day forecast period. The next active weather system looks to
bring precipitation to the mid state Thursday night and Friday,
and an early look into that portion of the forecast suggests that
we may start off with more wintry precipitation late Thursday
night and early Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Winds will gradually veer to the northeast overnight, and become
more easterly after 12Z but stay in the 5-10kt range. Some
lingering IFR/MVFR clouds at CSV are showing signs of clearing
out, after which expect just persistent high clouds for the
remainder of the TAF period. Some lower clouds may creep in late
and will address that trend in the 06Z forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      25  46  32  39 /   0  40 100  20
Clarksville    22  44  29  37 /   0  30  90  20
Crossville     20  46  31  37 /   0  40 100  50
Columbia       24  46  31  39 /   0  60 100  20
Cookeville     22  48  31  37 /   0  40 100  40
Jamestown      21  46  31  36 /   0  30 100  50
Lawrenceburg   23  48  32  39 /   0  60 100  20
Murfreesboro   23  49  32  38 /   0  50 100  30
Waverly        22  43  29  37 /   0  40 100  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Holley
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....05