481
FXUS64 KOHX 141741
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Humid with medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms
  each day through the weekend. Greatest rain chances each
  afternoon and early evening.

- Generally low risk for severe weather, but some of the storms
  will contain torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A very active weather period continues today and looks like it`s
going to be with us for several more days. Scattered showers have
blossomed on the radar in the last 90 minutes and while I expect
to have some rumbles of thunder today, they are few and far
between at this time. However, with any breaks in the rain as we
get into the afternoon hours, this should allow time for the
atmosphere to destabilize and open the door for at least isolated
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and into the early evening
hours. I`m not overly concerned about any severe weather, however
the showers that we are getting are gushers. A quick half inch is
very possible with any of them and if you get two throughout the
day, you could be pretty soaked. On the whole, I don`t expect any
flash flooding, but if you`re going to be out and about today in
Middle TN, an umbrella will be your closest friend and ally.

Showers should come to an end prior to midnight and with the wet
grounds, patchy fog will be possible after midnight and through
daybreak on Sunday. Please use caution if travelling on area
roadways tomorrow morning.

More rain chances are in the cards tomorrow, however latest hi-res
guidance is suggesting coverage may not be quite as much as we`ll
see today. This will do a couple of things: first, it should allow
us to warm up a few more degrees, but secondly, any storms that do
develop will have a slightly better chance for gusty winds. Keep
this in mind in you have outdoor plans tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

General troughiness will continue over the region Monday, Tuesday
and Wednesday. This means decent rain chances each day right through
the middle of next week across the mid-state. Forecast soundings
remain relatively benign each day, so I don`t see one day sticking
out as particularly concerning regarding any severe threat, however
it is summer so keep in mind that any thunderstorm that develops
will have a gusty wind risk and likely give you a good soaking with
heavy rainfall.

There is some relief from the rain in sight. By the end of next
week, much of the long-range guidance is suggesting rain chances
wane. However, in its place is a strong upper ridge and this could
spell temperatures climbing into the 90s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A surface low is passing by just to the north of Middle Tennessee,
with a surface boundary/upper trough situated to our west this
afternoon. We have seen mainly scattered showers with the
occasional storm passing through the mid state, but the activity
looks to increase as the upper trough swings through the region
(while the surface boundary remains upstream). So look for a
better chance of storms during the late afternoon and early
evening. Overnight, look for low ceilings to develop, along with
some radiation fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  88  72  87 /  30  60  20  60
Clarksville    70  85  70  86 /  30  40  20  50
Crossville     65  79  66  81 /  60  80  40  80
Columbia       69  86  69  86 /  40  50  30  70
Cookeville     67  81  67  83 /  50  70  30  80
Jamestown      65  79  66  83 /  60  80  40  80
Lawrenceburg   69  85  68  86 /  40  50  30  70
Murfreesboro   69  87  69  88 /  40  60  30  70
Waverly        68  85  68  84 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose