209
FXUS64 KOHX 081152
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
552 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Drizzle and a light rain/snow mix possible through this morning.
  No accumulation or impacts expected.

- Warmer and breezy Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Much colder air arriving by the weekend with lows in the teens
  and highs mostly in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A disturbance accompanied by a cold front will move across the Mid
State overnight. Moisture / light rain showing up on radar across
MS/AL will move into mainly southern and eastern sections of
Middle TN overnight. Rainfall will be scattered and very light
with most places seeing just sprinkles (trace amounts). There may
be enough cold air for a flurries Monday morning.

High pressure will build in behind this system Monday, but as we
have seen during several recent events, the low level moisture
will linger under a strong temperature inversion, so clouds will
be slow to break up after this front. Monday will be another
chilly, cloudy day with temperatures struggling to reach 40. Wind
chills will be in the 30s through the day.

If skies clear out by Monday night, we could have foggy
conditions including some freezing fog, but enough cloud cover may
stay around to limit fog development.

On Tuesday, surface high pressure will move east of our area as a
low pressure system drops into the Plains and Upper Midwest.
Between these systems, southwest winds will increase with warm
advection bringing our temps up closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The warm advection pattern will continue Tuesday night and
Wednesday as low pressure tracks to our north. Temperatures will
climb well into the 50s for most of us on Wednesday, but it may
not feel so warm with gusty southwest winds over 25 mph at times.

A couple of shortwaves accompanied by cold fronts will drop
across the region Wednesday through Friday. We have been
advertising chances for rain showers and perhaps eventually some
snow showers with these systems, but models are trending drier.
the latest NBM forecast shows 20 to 30 percent precipitation
chances at most. This could still change of course, but right now
it looks like the main impact from these fronts will be the
arrival of much colder air, especially with Friday`s cold front.
We are forecasting weekend highs in the 30s with overnight lows
in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Fairly widespread IFR cigs are still in place across Middle
Tennessee this morning despite a couple MVFR obs. I`ve maintained
IFR cigs at BNA, MQY, and CKV through much of the morning along
with a mention of -DZ which may briefly reduce vis and wet the
runways. There may even be a few wet snow flakes mixed in. Flight
categories should improve through the day at these airfields. SRB
and CSV will have slower improvement as clouds/low cigs persist
through the afternoon and evening. Winds today prevail NW at 5-10
kts, becoming SSW tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      41  28  53  40 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    39  27  51  41 /  20   0   0   0
Crossville     38  22  46  35 /  30   0   0   0
Columbia       41  26  50  38 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     38  24  46  36 /  40   0   0   0
Jamestown      37  23  46  36 /  50   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   40  25  49  37 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   41  25  49  38 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        40  26  49  39 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Sizemore