Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1258 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Issued at 934 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

No significant changes are needed for this update. Just blended
the latest observations to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Current forecast looks ok so far as a dry and weak cold front
makes its way across the region. A narrow band of high clouds
associated with the frontal zone across northwest North Dakota
southwest into eastern Montana will move east today. This feature
is a cold front in name only as temperatures will be just a few
degrees cooler today than as yesterday. Current forecast looks


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

For the short term there are just some minor fire weather
concerns. Today a dry cold frontal passage associated with a weak
shortwave trough progressing across southern Canada will bring
drier air into the west. Global models all agree that the core of
a h300 Jet will remain north of the state with insufficient
subsidence to transfer momentum to the surface, so the post
frontal surface winds will remain fairly light. Even the surface
pressure gradient is weak. So drier air behind the front with
minimum relative humdities of 20 to 25 percent will not be
associated with winds over 10 mph. Therefor do not anticipate
significant fire weather concerns today.

Tonight, another approaching shortwave will track across South
Dakota and spread precipitation across southern North Dakota
beginning late tonight. Initially the precipitation will fall as

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

No significant concerns for the extended period. On Monday,
mainly rain will spread across the south during the day.
Consensus among models gives qpf amounts between a quarter and a
half an inch along and south of Interstate 94 Monday and Monday

Some of this will fall as a rain/snow mix, mainly between midnight
and 7 am Tuesday across the higher elevations of the southwest.
Total snow amounts should be less than an inch with that mostly
on grassy areas.

Tuesdays highs will be in the 50s.

Wednesday will warm into the 60s most areas ahead of the next
shortwave which will bring spotty rain to the east Wednesday
night into Thursday and a cool down into the 50s. Then Friday and
Saturday will be dry with temperatures returning into the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.




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